World Cup Group D predictions, tips & odds

Matchday three in Group D at the 2026 World Cup delivered a series of intriguing outcomes, with co-host USA finishing top of the group despite suffering defeat to Turkey in a dead rubber.

Meanwhile, Australia confirmed second place following their goalless draw with Paraguay, who ended third and earned a place in the knockouts, while Turkey finished bottom of the bracket.

Football Whispers takes a closer look at Group D, analysing the teams, key players, fixtures, and betting angles after the conclusion of the group stage.

Group D winner odds

• USA – N/A
• Australia – N/A
• Turkey – N/A
• Paraguay – N/A

Group D winner odds are no longer available, with the United States confirmed as group winners despite suffering defeat to Turkey in their final game.

Group D qualification odds

• USA – Already qualified (1st)
• Australia – Already qualified (2nd)
• Paraguay – Already qualified (3rd, best losers)
• Turkey – Eliminated

The United States and Australia confirmed their places in the round of 32 automatically, having finished first and second, respectively, while Paraguay's point from their goalless draw with the Socceroos was enough to see them advance as one of the best third-placed teams, leaving Turkey as the only side eliminated from Group D.

Group D fixtures: Match‑by‑match schedule

Group D: Full Fixture Schedule

All six matches, with venues and kick-off times

FIFA World Cup 2026

Gameweek 1 Friday 12 & Sunday 13 June 2026

🇺🇸USA

vs

Paraguay🇵🇾

2am BST (9pm ET, 12 Jun) SoFi Stadium, Inglewood Friday 12 June

USA 10/11

Draw 12/5

Paraguay 13/5

🇦🇺Australia

vs

Turkey🇹🇷

5am BST (midnight ET, 13 Jun) BC Place, Vancouver Saturday 13 June

Australia 11/4

Draw 5/2

Turkey 5/6

Gameweek 2 Friday 19 & Saturday 20 June 2026

🇺🇸USA

vs

Australia🇦🇺

8pm BST (3pm ET) Lumen Field, Seattle Friday 19 June

USA 8/13

Draw 3/1

Australia 4/1

🇹🇷Turkey

vs

Paraguay🇵🇾

4am BST (11pm ET, 19 Jun) Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara Saturday 20 June (BST)

Turkey 21/20

Draw 23/10

Paraguay 13/5

Gameweek 3 Thursday 25 June 2026

🇹🇷Turkey

vs

USA🇺🇸

3am BST (10pm ET, 25 Jun) SoFi Stadium, Inglewood Simultaneous kick-off

Turkey 21/10

Draw 23/10

USA 27/20

🇵🇾Paraguay

vs

Australia🇦🇺

3am BST (10pm ET, 25 Jun) Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara Simultaneous kick-off

Paraguay 9/5

Draw 5/4

Australia 11/4

Odds correct at time of publishing. UK kick-off times shown.

2026 World Cup Group D predictions and betting angles

USA

The United States arrived at the World Cup as Group D favourites, boosted by home advantage and their status as the highest-ranked side in the section at 17th in the FIFA World Rankings.

Mauricio Pochettino's team justified that tag in convincing fashion across the first two games, opening with a commanding 4-1 win over Paraguay before following up with a 2-0 victory over Australia to seal top spot in the group.

Despite Thursday's 3-2 loss to Turkey, having rested the majority of his starters, Pochettino's side secured top spot in Group D with six points from three matches and head into the round of 32 to face Bosnia and Herzegovina on July 2.

Turkey.

Turkey arrived at the World Cup on the back of an impressive run of form, winning seven of their previous eight matches before the tournament, and came in as the second-highest-ranked side in Group D at 22nd in the FIFA World Rankings.

However, Vincenzo Montella's side fell short of expectations, opening with a defeat to Australia before a second matchday loss to Paraguay confirmed their elimination, despite dominating both games statistically without finding the net.

Turkey signed off with their only win of the tournament, beating a rotated USA side 3-2 thanks to Kaan Ayhan's stoppage-time strike, with Arda Guler and Baris Alper Yilmaz also finding the net.

The Crescent Stars’ hopes of reaching the knockout stages for only the second time in three World Cup appearances have come to an end, a disappointing outcome for a nation that famously finished third in 2002.

Paraguay

Paraguay are the lowest-ranked side in Group D at 41st in the FIFA World Rankings but arrived having won three of their four pre-tournament fixtures and demonstrated that resilience by keeping their hopes alive with a narrow win over Turkey on matchday two despite being considered underdogs.

Paraguay managed just 0.24 xG in their final group game against Australia, with both sides unable to find a breakthrough in a goalless draw that ultimately suited the Socceroos more than Gustavo Alfaro's men. 

However, four points were enough to see Los Guaraníes advance as one of the best third-placed teams, and they will now face Germany in the round of 32.

Australia

Despite sitting 27th in the FIFA World Rankings, Australia were underdogs heading into their matchday one clash with Turkey, but their defensive organisation proved decisive as the Socceroos emerged as 2-0 winners in one of the more surprising results of the opening matchday.

However, that resolute rearguard could not hold firm against co-hosts USA on matchday two, with that 2-0 loss leaving Australia needing a result against Paraguay to secure direct qualification to the knockout stages.

On matchday three, goalkeeper Patrick Beach kept his second clean sheet of the tournament in the goalless draw with Los Guaraníes, and while that encounter was hardly a spectacle, the point was enough to see Australia finish second and advance to the round of 32, where they will face Egypt on July 3.

Final Group D prediction

1. USA
2. Australia
3. Paraguay
4. Turkey

Best bets

With all the group business concluded and the United States, Australia and Paraguay all confirmed in their round of 32 matchups, there is little value left in the market.

Find our best World Cup betting tips and strategies here