World Cup Group D predictions, tips & odds

Group D is one of the more competitive sections of the 2026 World Cup, featuring a co‑host in the United States, as well as Turkey, Paraguay and Australia.

The bookmakers have placed the USA and Turkey as the two most likely to progress, but the fixture order could influence momentum. With tougher opponents arriving later, early slip‑ups may prove costly.

Football Whispers breaks down Group D in full, including fixtures, latest odds and predictions.

Group D winner odds

• USA – 11/8
• Turkey – 6/4
• Paraguay – 4/1
• Australia – 8/1

The USA and Turkey are priced closely together, reflecting the USA’s resurgence under new management and Turkey’s steady climb after their Euro 2024 campaigns. Paraguay’s longer price may be tied to their long‑standing goalscoring issues, while Australia’s odds reflect the step up in quality they face.

Group D qualification odds

• USA – 1/7
• Turkey – 1/5
• Paraguay – 1/2
• Australia – 1/1

The market expects the USA and Turkey to progress, while Paraguay’s 1/2 price shows they could make it through as one of the top eight third-placed teams. Australia sit at evens, giving them a 50/50 chance, which feels slightly generous.

Group D fixtures: Match‑by‑match schedule

Group D: Full Fixture Schedule

All six matches, with venues and kick-off times

FIFA World Cup 2026

Gameweek 1 Friday 12 & Sunday 13 June 2026

🇺🇸USA

vs

Paraguay🇵🇾

2am BST (9pm ET, 12 Jun) SoFi Stadium, Inglewood Friday 12 June

USA 10/11

Draw 12/5

Paraguay 13/5

🇦🇺Australia

vs

Turkey🇹🇷

5am BST (midnight ET, 13 Jun) BC Place, Vancouver Saturday 13 June

Australia 11/4

Draw 5/2

Turkey 5/6

Gameweek 2 Friday 19 & Saturday 20 June 2026

🇺🇸USA

vs

Australia🇦🇺

8pm BST (3pm ET) Lumen Field, Seattle Friday 19 June

USA 7/10

Draw 11/4

Australia 15/4

🇹🇷Turkey

vs

Paraguay🇵🇾

4am BST (11pm ET, 19 Jun) Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara Saturday 20 June (BST)

Turkey 6/5

Draw 11/5

Paraguay 23/10

Gameweek 3 Thursday 25 June 2026

🇹🇷Turkey

vs

USA🇺🇸

3am BST (10pm ET, 25 Jun) SoFi Stadium, Inglewood Simultaneous kick-off

Turkey 17/10

Draw 12/5

USA 29/20

🇵🇾Paraguay

vs

Australia🇦🇺

3am BST (10pm ET, 25 Jun) Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara Simultaneous kick-off

Paraguay 23/20

Draw 23/10

Australia 23/10

Odds correct at time of publishing. UK kick-off times shown.

2026 World Cup Group D predictions and betting angles

USA

The USA enter as the deserved favourites. Christian Pulisic has passed double‑digit goal contributions for AC Milan despite missing time through injury, and Mauricio Pochettino gives the USMNT one of the most experienced managers in the tournament, having been courted by Barcelona and Manchester United in the past.

His supporting cast is strong. Weston McKennie remains a regular at Juventus, Tyler Adams has shown in the Premier League how effective he is when fit, and Folarin Balogun has found the net 18 times this campaign.

Add in the historical trend that 21 of the last 22 host nations have reached the knockout stages, and the USA’s position at 11/8 to win the group and 1/7 to qualify is fully justified. Their opener against Paraguay is favourable, as 10/11 favourites, so if they win that, they should take control of the group.

Turkey

Turkey arrive with more credibility than in previous tournaments. Their Euro 2024 run, where they beat Austria in the last-16 and pushed the Netherlands in the quarter‑finals, showed they can deliver under pressure, as they head into their first World Cup since 2002.

Hakan Calhanoglu continues to be one of Serie A’s most influential midfielders, while Arda Guler's breakthrough into Real Madrid's starting lineup has given the country a genuine difference‑maker in tight games.

In a group where only one of Paraguay or Australia needs to be beaten, Turkey's ceiling is a major advantage, and the bookmakers agree having them 6/4 to win the group.

Paraguay

Paraguay’s biggest issue remains unchanged – they struggle to score. At the 2024 Copa America, they found the net only three times, while in the most recent CONMEBOL qualifying phase, no Paraguayan player scored more than three goals.

That was Julio Enciso, who is a bright talent, but the lack of a reliable No.9 continues to limit their ability to turn tight matches into wins.

Their opening game against the USA is a difficult matchup, and dropping points early would put them under immediate pressure to pick up results in their remaining two matches.

Australia

Australia went on an impressive run at the 2022 World Cup, reaching the Round of 16 before losing by only one goal to eventual champions Argentina, which shows they are capable of springing a surprise.

They do historically come unstuck against elite opposition, though, as they have not beaten a top-15 nation since 2010. Their recent form leaves a lot to be desired, too, with a quarter-final exit at the 2023 Asian Cup a real sickener for all involved with the national team.

Australia could disrupt the group with a shock, but over three matches, that talent gap is likely to show.

Final Group D prediction

1. USA
2. Turkey
3. Australia
4. Paraguay

Best bets

• USA to win Group D (11/8)
• Turkey to qualify (1/5)

The safest angle is siding with the two teams with the clearest edges – The USA have the strongest squad and home advantage, while Turkey have recent proven tournament pedigree and several starters for elite European clubs.

Find our best World Cup betting tips and strategies here