World Cup Group F permutations: What do Netherlands, Sweden need to qualify?

The first round of fixtures in World Cup 2026 Group F saw Sweden thrash Tunisia 5-1, with Yasin Ayari grabbing a brace, while Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyokeres and Mattias Svanberg all scored one each, leaving the Blagult topping the group.

Netherland and Japan, the other two teams in the group, shared the spoils on matchday one, with the Dutch pegged back twice after taking the lead to draw 2-2. 

That leaves Sweden top on three points with a healthy goal difference, the Netherlands and Japan level on one point apiece after sharing the spoils, and Tunisia bottom without a point and a damaged goal difference after their heavy defeat.

Saturday, June 20 brings Netherlands against Sweden in Houston, and Tunisia against Japan in Monterrey, before the group concludes on Thursday, June 25 with Japan facing Sweden in Arlington and Tunisia taking on Netherlands in Kansas City. 

Those two matchday two fixtures could go a long way toward deciding who advances and who heads home.

Football Whispers takes a look at the various routes each team in Group F would need to secure a place in the knockout phase. 

What Netherland needs to qualify for World Cup knockout stages

Three-time runners-up Netherlands arrived in the United States off the back of an undefeated run through UEFA qualifying, scoring 27 goals while conceding just four, so the draw with Japan will have stung. 

Ronald Koeman's side now face a Swedish team brimming with confidence and goals, and a win here would all but secure qualification with a game to spare, given their superior pedigree and Tunisia still to come. 

A draw against Sweden would leave the Dutch needing at least a point from Tunisia in the final round, with H2H and goal difference likely to matter given how tight the group could become. 

Defeat to Sweden, however, would be a genuine crisis, as it would leave Netherlands third or fourth heading into a must-win finale against a Tunisian side they would be expected to beat, but with no margin for error and a real possibility of an early exit from a tournament they were many people's dark horse to win.

What Sweden needs to qualify for World Cup knockout stages

Graham Potter's Sweden have made the perfect start, and a victory vs. the Dutch would see them through; even a draw against Netherlands in Houston would leave them in a commanding position to qualify with a game to spare, particularly given their plus-four goal difference cushion. 

Sweden's route to this World Cup came via beating both Ukraine and Poland in the play-offs after struggling in their European group, so there is a touch of momentum about this squad that belies their lower seeding. 

Even a narrow defeat to Netherlands would not be fatal, given the strong goal difference banked against Tunisia, but Sweden would then need to beat or draw with Japan in the final round to guarantee progress, rather than relying on results elsewhere. 

A heavy loss to the Dutch, conversely, would flip the group on its head and turn the Japan finale into a straight shootout for second or third place.

What Japan needs to qualify for World Cup knockout stages

Japan have reached the World Cup for an eighth straight tournament and their opening draw with Netherlands, secured after twice coming from behind, was a result they will happily take given the Dutch side's qualifying pedigree. 

That point now puts them in genuine control of their own destiny, as a win over Tunisia on June 20 would put the Samurai Blue on four points and in a commanding position heading into the finale against Sweden, likely needing just a draw to confirm progress regardless of how the Netherlands-Sweden game unfolds.

Even a draw with Tunisia would leave Japan well-placed on two points, but given how leaky the North African side’s defence already looks, it would put more pressure on the Sweden game to produce a positive result. 

Defeat to Tunisia, however, would be a damaging blow, as it would leave Japan needing to beat Sweden in the final round just to guarantee a top-two finish, with their fate potentially decided by other results and either H2H or goal difference if it came to a fight for third.

What Tunisia needs to qualify for World Cup knockout stages

Tunisia's tournament could hardly have started worse, as a side that did not concede a single goal throughout CAF qualifying shipped five against Sweden, leaving them bottom of the group without a point and with a goal difference of minus four, arguably the most damaging start of any side across the 12 groups. 

Realistically, this is now a must-win-both-games scenario for Tunisia, with victory over Japan on June 20 essentially non-negotiable. Anything less and qualification, even via third place, becomes a long shot given how poor their goal difference already is compared to direct rivals in other groups chasing that route. 

Beating Japan would put Tunisia back on three points and very much alive heading into a final-round meeting with Netherlands, where another win, and ideally by a margin that claws back some of that goal difference deficit, would be needed to have any real chance of finishing in the top two or sneaking through as one of the best third-placed teams. 

A draw or defeat against Japan, by contrast, would leave Tunisia needing other results to fall their way just to have a mathematical route through, making an early exit the overwhelmingly likely outcome.