Velez Sarsfield and Penarol will meet in the first round of the new Copa Libertadores edition on Wednesday, 2 March.
With both teams hoping for a win to start the new season, who will emerge victorious from this game? Read our Velez Sarsfield vs Penarol prediction to find out.
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Velez Sarsfield vs Penarol prediction: A narrow win for the hosts
Key Stats
- Two of the last five duels between Velez and Penarol have gone under 1.5 total goals.
- Velez have won three of their last five matches in all competitions.
- Penarol have lost four of their last five games.
Correct score prediction: Velez Sarsfield 1-0 Penarol
With both teams struggling this season, this will be a close game, but ultimately we expect Velez to secure a minimal win. After all, they've done much better than Penarol in recent games and they will have the advantage of playing at home, which should be enough in this match.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Velez Sarsfield the more likely winners
- HOME: 17/20 (1.85) – 54.10%
- DRAW: 19/10 (2.90) – 34.50%
- AWAY: 3/1 (4.00) – 25.00%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
It's obvious from these Velez Sarsfield vs Penarol odds that the home team are the expected winners, which isn't too surprising considering the recent form of both teams.
Furthermore, Velez are the reigning champions of a stronger league and have done better in most recent H2H meetings with Penarol, so we can see why the bookies expect them to win this match.
In any case, make sure to also check our other tips on our free football predictions page.
Most recent H2Hs: No wins for Penarol recently
In the last five duels between these teams, we saw no Penarol wins, with three of the matches ending in draws and two with Velez wins. Overall, these two teams have met eight times and the record is 4-2-2 in favour of Velez.
Copa Sudamericana 05/11/20
Penarol
Velez Sarsfield
Copa Sudamericana 29/10/20
Velez Sarsfield
Penarol
Velez Sarsfield preview: A bad start of the season
As the reigning champions of Argentina, Velez Sarsfield didn't have a good start to the new Primera Division. In fact, they're currently 28th in the standings with just eight points from 11 games. That being said, Velez have won three of their last five games in all competitions, so they're seemingly getting into form.
Predicted lineup: Marchiori (GK), Gordon, Mammana, V. Gomez, E. Gomez, Baeza, Bouzat, Pizzini, Montoro, Carrizo & Romero
Argentina Liga Profesional 15/04/25
L
Sarmiento
1
Velez Sarsfield
0
Copa Libertadores 09/04/25
W
Olimpia Asuncion
0
Velez Sarsfield
4
Argentina Liga Profesional 05/04/25
L
Rosario Central
2
Velez Sarsfield
1
Copa Libertadores 02/04/25
W
Penarol
1
Velez Sarsfield
2
Argentina Liga Profesional 29/03/25
L
Deportivo Riestra
1
Velez Sarsfield
0
Penarol preview: Hoping for a good performance
Similarly to their next opponent, Penarol have also struggled this season, especially in recent matches since they've lost four of their last five games. They are currently 11th in the Uruguayan championship, with nine points from the same number of matches, so they'll hope to turn things around with a good performance against Velez in Buenos Aires.
Predicted lineup: De Amores Ravelo (GK), Mayada, Mendez, Rodriguez, Hernandez, Perez, Umpierrez, Cabrera, Terans, Cardozo & Machado
Uruguay Apertura 12/04/25
W
Miramar Misiones
2
Penarol
4
Copa Libertadores 09/04/25
W
San Antonio Bulo Bulo
0
Penarol
2
Uruguay Apertura 05/04/25
W
Danubio
0
Penarol
1
Copa Libertadores 02/04/25
L
Velez Sarsfield
2
Penarol
1
Uruguay Apertura 30/03/25
L
Cerro Largo
2
Penarol
0
Player to watch: Braian Romero
Velez Sarsfield have only scored three goals in 11 matches in Primera Division this season, so their offense hasn't been working well at all.
That being said, two of the three goals they've scored came from Romero, who will have to dig deep again and provide Velez with some goals if they're do wo well in Copa Libertadores.