Ukraine and Iceland, locked on seven points each, will face off in Group D’s final World Cup qualification matchday, with both sides needing a victory to confirm second position, on Sunday, 16 November.
Keep close tabs on our World Cup predictions after viewing our key Ukraine vs Iceland tips below.
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Key stats
- Ukraine are winless in three of their last five WCQ games (D1, L2).
- Nine of the Blue and Yellow’s last 12 matches saw both teams score.
- Iceland are unbeaten in back-to-back WCQ fixtures (W1, D1).
- The visitors are winless in three of their last four away competitive trips.
Correct score prediction: Ukraine 2-2 Iceland
Serhiy Rebrov’s Ukraine saw their automatic World Cup qualification hopes thrown out of the window as France beat them 4-0 at Parc des Princes. A first World Cup appearance since Germany 2006 is on the line for Ukraine, who need a victory to clinch the second play-off spot.
In contrast, the visitors need just a point to confirm their place at next year’s World Cup for the first time since Russia 2018. Despite their relatively superior goal difference, Iceland are in shaky form as well, having lost six of their last 10 games.
For a side that saw their Euro 2024 hopes come crashing down against Ukraine in Wroclaw, their visit to Poland will feel ominous, but a draw should be enough for Iceland to progress to the World Cup.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Odds favour Ukraine
- HOME: 7/10 (1.70) – 58.8%
- DRAW: 11/4 (3.75) – 26.6%
- AWAY: 19/5 (4.80) – 20.8%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Despite playing on neutral soil, Ukraine are heavy favourites, according to bookmakers. They are the expected winners, backed by odds of 7/10 (1,70), which indicates a 58.8% probability of success.
Iceland’s previous visit to play Ukraine in Poland didn’t go as planned. Priced at 19/5 with a 20.8% win probability rate, they come into this fixture as underdogs.
Visit our football betting tips page for more free predictions.
Most recent H2Hs: Ukraine with the upper hand
Ukraine have won three of their previous six H2Hs against Iceland, including their thrilling 5-3 victory in the reverse fixture in Reykjavik. Iceland’s one and only H2H win over Ukraine came in September 2017.
Euro 2024 Qualifying 26/03/24
Ukraine
Iceland
Europe - World Cup Qualifying 05/09/17
Iceland
Ukraine
Europe - World Cup Qualifying 05/09/16
Ukraine
Iceland
Ukraine preview: A few missing
Rebrov has three players missing for this crucial encounter: Arseniy Batahov, Artem Dovbyk and Volodymyr Brazhko
Predicted lineup: Trubin (GK), Mykhaylychenko, Mykhavko, Svatok, Zabarnyi, Karavaev, Ocheretko, Yarmoliuk, Nazaryna, Hutsulia & Yaremchuk
Last five matches:
- France 4-0 Ukraine (World Cup Qualifiers)
- Ukraine 2-1 Azerbaijan (World Cup Qualifiers)
- Iceland 3-5 Ukraine (World Cup Qualifiers)
- Azerbaijan 1-1 Ukraine (World Cup Qualifiers)
- Ukraine 0-2 France (World Cup Qualifiers)
Iceland preview: Can they claim at least a point?
Arnar Gunnlaugsson’s Iceland travel to mainland Europe without any real suspension or injury issues.
Predicted lineup: Olafsson (GK), Ellertsson, Gretarsson, Ingason, Palsson, Haraldsson, Johannesson, Gudmundsson, Berg, Hlynsson & Gudjohnsen
Last five matches:
- Azerbaijan 0-2 Iceland (World Cup Qualifiers)
- Iceland 2-2 France (World Cup Qualifiers)
- Iceland 3-5 Ukraine (World Cup Qualifiers)
- France 2-1 Iceland (World Cup Qualifiers)
- Iceland 5-0 Azerbaijan (World Cup Qualifiers)
Player to watch: Albert Gudmundsson
Fiorentina marksman Gudmundsson has found the back of the net in successive appearances for club and country, including Iceland’s opener against Azerbaijan last matchday. With four goals and two assists this WCQ cycle, Gudmundsson is a real threat for Ukraine’s backline to deal with.