Tottenham vs Arsenal prediction, odds & betting tips – 28/04/2024

Tottenham
28/04/24 - 14:00

Finished

2

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Arsenal

Tottenham - Arsenal

England Premier League - Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Tottenham vs Arsenal prediction
Tottenham Hotspur's James Maddison (left) and Arsenal's Jorginho battle for the ball – Photo by Icon Sport

We're bringing you our Premier League predictions for Sunday's North London derby between Tottenham and Arsenal. These two local rivals played out a 2-2 draw when they last met but a stalemate doesn't really do either side much good this weekend with the Gunners chasing the title and Spurs aiming for a return to the Champions League.

Tottenham vs Arsenal predictions: Gunners to edge close encounter

Tottenham vs Arsenal Predictions
Our pick

🔥 Hot Tip

Arsenal to Win

⚽ Correct Score prediction

Tottenham 1-2 Arsenal

⚽ Total Goals & BTTS prediction

Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS - Yes

Key Stats

  • Arsenal have won four of their last six league meetings with Tottenham, securing a 2-0 victory in this very fixture last season. The hosts have lost two of their last five outings, going down 4-0 at Newcastle last time out.
  • The Gunners have scored at least two goals in five of their last six North London derbies but have conceded at least one goal in three of their last five matches heading into this weekend's big game, which is why we have gone with a narrow 2-1 win for the visitors.
  • Over 2.5 goals have been scored in five of Tottenham's and three of Arsenal's last six outings, while both teams have scored in three of the host's last four outings as well as four of the last six meetings between these two clubs.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Odds favour the visitors

  • HOME: 100/30 (4.33) – 23.1%
  • DRAW: 16/5 (4.20) – 23.8%
  • AWAY: 13/16 (1.81) – 55.2%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

Arsenal are the expected winners of this game with a probability of 55.2%, but we are predicting a close and competitive 90 minutes between these two local rivals.

Tottenham suffered a 4-0 defeat at Sta James' Park last time out, while Arsenal put five past Chelsea without replay in midweek.

For more football betting tips on the game, check out the Anytime Goalscorer market. Arsenal's Bukayo Saka is the favourite to score in the North London derby at 15/8 (2.88) with a probability of 34.8%, but if you want to bet on a Tottenham goalscorer then Heung-Min Son is your best bet at 12/5 (3.40) which has a probability of 29.4%.

Last five H2Hs: Arsenal dominate

Spain Segunda 23/04/24

Tottenham

Tottenham

1
Arsenal

Arsenal

2

England Premier League 24/09/23

Arsenal

Arsenal

2
Tottenham

Tottenham

2

England Premier League 15/01/23

Tottenham

Tottenham

0
Arsenal

Arsenal

2

England Premier League 01/10/22

Arsenal

Arsenal

3
Tottenham

Tottenham

1

England Premier League 12/05/22

Tottenham

Tottenham

3
Arsenal

Arsenal

0

The Gunners have won 74, drawn 50 and lost 58 of their last 182 encounters with Tottenham in all competitions, but the pair played out a 2-2 draw in September's reverse fixture.

Team news and form guide

Tottenham: Lost two of last five in the league

Destiny Udogie, Fraser Forster, Ryan Sessegnon and Manor Solomon will miss the North London derby this weekend due to injury.

Predicted lineup: Vicario (GK), Romero, Royal, van de Ven, Porro, Maddison, Bentancur, Bissouma, Son, Werner & Johnson

Elite Club Friendlies 22/05/24

L

Newcastle

Newcastle

1 (5)

Tottenham

Tottenham

1 (4)

England Premier League 19/05/24

W

Sheff Utd

Sheff Utd

0

Tottenham

Tottenham

3

England Premier League 14/05/24

L

Man City

Man City

2

Tottenham

Tottenham

0

England Premier League 11/05/24

W

Burnley

Burnley

1

Tottenham

Tottenham

2

England Premier League 05/05/24

L

Liverpool

Liverpool

4

Tottenham

Tottenham

2

Arsenal: Won last two league games

Jurrien Timber has been ruled out of this weekend's big game so we expect Arsenal to go with the same starting lineup that thrashed Chelsea.

Predicted lineup: Raya (GK), Tomiyasu, Gabriel, White, Saliba, Partey, Ødegaard, Rice, Havertz, Trossard & Saka

England Premier League 19/05/24

W

Everton

Everton

1

Arsenal

Arsenal

2

England Premier League 12/05/24

W

Man Utd

Man Utd

0

Arsenal

Arsenal

1

England Premier League 04/05/24

W

Bournemouth

Bournemouth

0

Arsenal

Arsenal

3

Others 03/05/24

D

Man Utd

Man Utd

0

Arsenal

Arsenal

0

Portugal Primeira Liga 01/05/24

W

Man City

Man City

0

Arsenal

Arsenal

1

Player to watch – Bukayo Saka

It's amazing to think that Bukayo Saka is still only 22-year-old as it feels like he has been playing at the top of his game for a long time.

Bukayo Saka player to watch
Saka to increase his scoring tally against Tottenham? – Photo by Icon Sport

Arsenal's top scorer in the league this season with 14 goals was on target in the last North London derby and we're expecting another big performance from one of Mikel  Arteta's most consistent players.

Scored in the 2-2 draw against Spurs in September

Saka hasn't scored in any of his last four matches for the Gunners, not since netting against Bayern Munich in the Champions League, so the England international is due a goal very soon, possibly this weekend.

The latest Tweets from each camp

Tottenham

Arsenal


A lifelong Evertonian, James started writing for an Everton fan site in the mid-2000s and then developed his own blog covering football transfers from across Europe's big leagues before becoming a regular match preview and betting tips writer for Biggest Free Bets. James moved to Free Super Tips next, and then Racing Post, where he worked as a full-time betting tips writer for a few years. Following that, James joined Football Whispers in December 2020 and has been a permanent fixture ever-since, currently covering the Premier League amongst other things