Switzerland vs Italy prediction, odds & betting tips – 29/06/2024

🔥 Our Hot tip

Switzerland or draw

Switzerland have yet to lose at Euro 2024, while Italy barely escaped with a point in their last two Group Stage fixtures.

Switzerland collide with defending champions Italy in the Last 16 of Euro 2024 at the Olympiastadion Berlin on Saturday, 29 June. Can the unbeaten Swiss upset the odds to eliminate the Azzurri? Find out in our expert Euro 2024 predictions for the game below.

Switzerland vs Italy prediction: Margins could be slim in Berlin

Key Stats

  • All three of Switzerland’s fixtures in Group A featured goals at both ends.
  • Italy managed to win only one of their three matches (vs Albania) during their Group B assignment.
  • Switzerland have yet to lose at Euro 2024 and held hosts Germany to a draw on matchday three in Group A.
  • Each of Switzerland’s last two games, as well as Italy’s last tussle (vs Croatia), finished level at 1-1.

Correct score prediction: Switzerland 1-1 Italy

Switzerland and Italy both showcased their well-drilled defensive attributes during the Group Stage, and a contest decided by fine margins rather than a goal-fest is anticipated when they clash in Berlin. Each of Switzerland’s last two group games finished 1-1 and the Swiss conceded exactly one goal in all three of their Group A contests.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Italy have the edge in the markets

  • HOME: 9/4 (3.25) – 30.8%
  • DRAW: 2/1 (3.00) – 33.3%
  • AWAY: 7/5 (2.40) – 41.7%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

Switzerland were impressively robust in Group A and they navigated a tough set of fixtures against Hungary, Scotland and hosts Germany with their unbeaten record still intact. The Swiss were denied a historic victory over Die Mannschaft by a 92nd-minute equalizer from Niclas Fulkrug on matchday three, and they could be just as competitive against Italy.

Priced as 9/4 underdogs ahead of Saturday’s game, Switzerland are perhaps a little underpriced against an Italian team that were seconds away from losing their final two group games. The latest probability figures give Italy a 41.7% chance of squeezing into the quarter finals, however, the Swiss catch the eye at 8/15 in the double chance realm, while backing the tie to go all the way to penalties at 4/1 is another attractive option. Check out more of our Euro 2024 Last 16 predictions on our latest football tips page.

Last five H2Hs: History of stalemates

Switzerland and Italy last crossed paths when they were paired in a World Cup qualification group in 2021 and the teams drew in each of their two encounters three years ago. The nations also met in the Group Stage of the last Euros, though Italy won 3-0 on that occasion.

Europe - World Cup Qualifying 12/11/21

Italy

Italy

1
Switzerland

Switzerland

1

Europe - World Cup Qualifying 05/09/21

Switzerland

Switzerland

0
Italy

Italy

0

Euro 2021 16/06/21

Italy

Italy

3
Switzerland

Switzerland

0

Switzerland preview: Widmer suspended

Silvan Widmer picked up a suspension-triggering yellow card against Germany last time out and will sit Saturday's game out. The Swiss have several players that ply their club football trade in Italy including Yann Sommer, Ricardo Rodriguez, Remo Freuler and Michel Aebischer.

Predicted lineup: Sommer (GK), Elvedi, Akanji, Rodriguez, Schar, Feuler, Xhaka, Aebischer, Reider, Ndoye, Embolo

Euro 2024 06/07/24

L

England

England

1 (5)

Switzerland

Switzerland

1 (3)

Euro 2024 29/06/24

W

Italy

Italy

0

Switzerland

Switzerland

2

Euro 2024 23/06/24

D

Germany

Germany

1

Switzerland

Switzerland

1

Euro 2024 19/06/24

D

Scotland

Scotland

1

Switzerland

Switzerland

1

Euro 2024 15/06/24

W

Hungary

Hungary

1

Switzerland

Switzerland

3

Italy preview: Calafiori a big miss

Key centre-half Riccardo Calafiori was booked against Croatia on Monday and the defender is suspended for Saturday's game as a consequence. Alessandro Buongiorno, Gianluca Mancini and Federico Gatti will be competing to replace Calafiori against Switzerland.

Predicted lineup: Donnarumma (GK), Darmian, Bastoni, Buongiorno, Jorginho, Di Lorenzo, Barella, Pellegrini, Dimarco, Raspadori, Retegui

Euro 2024 29/06/24

L

Switzerland

Switzerland

2

Italy

Italy

0

Euro 2024 24/06/24

D

Croatia

Croatia

1

Italy

Italy

1

Euro 2024 20/06/24

L

Spain

Spain

1

Italy

Italy

0

Euro 2024 15/06/24

W

Albania

Albania

1

Italy

Italy

2

International Match 09/06/24

W

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0

Italy

Italy

1

Key duels

Granit Xhaka vs Nicolo Barella

Granit Xhaka has been averaging 1.70 tackles and 1.70 fouls per game at Euro 2024 and his skirmish with Nicolo Barella, who has been averaging 3.00 tackles per runout for Italy, is likely to produce fireworks in midfield.

Dan Ndoye vs Federico Dimarco

Winger Dan Ndoye is fleet of foot and has been averaging 2.00 dribbles per game for the Swiss. The 23-year-old has enough technical ability to trouble Italian wingback, Federico Dimarco.

Michel Aebischer vs Giovanni Di Lorenzo

Michel Aebischer has been a menace at left-wing back for Switzerland and the 27-year-old has already chipped in with two goal contributions (1G, 1A) at the Euros. Italy’s Di Lorenzo had a tough time against both Spain and Croatia, and Aebischer could have a weak link to exploit.

Player to watch – Breel Embolo

Breel Embolo always seems to be a chief protagonist at major tournaments for Switzerland and the 27-year-old wield a blend of speed and power that is likely to trouble a one-paced Italian defence

Switzerland vs Italy prediction
Breel Embolo always seems to spark into life at tournaments – Photo by Icon Sport

Embolo should be fresh for Last 16 test

27-year-old Embolo has been lightly raced at Euro 2024 so far and has racked up just one start and 112 minutes in total at the tournament so far. The attacker should have plenty of energy in the tank, so expect an explosive performance from Embolo against Italy.

Winner’s next potential opponents

The winner of this duel will continue their path towards the grand final on the “easier” side of the bracket. That being said, their next opponent could be England, if they can find their form and beat Slovakia. Given that England are overwhelming favourites to get to the next stage, we can look at the H2H these teams have against the Three Lions.

When it comes to Switzerland, they won't be happy to face England since they've lost 18 times to them, along with just three wins and six draws. Meanwhile, Italians have much fonder memories of their duels with England, including the EURO 2020 final. Overall, Italy's record against England stands at 11 wins, 11 draws, and 10 loses.

After England, Switzerland or Italy would likely face Netherlands in the semi-finals and then whoever comes from the other side of the bracket in the final, where the main favourites are Spain, France, Portugal, and the hosts Germany.

The latest Tweets from each camp

Switzerland

Italy


Simon Winter is a professional football tipster and sports journalist with over ten years in the industry. Best known for his time with Racing Post, Simon has also had work published by Freesupertips, Bloomberg Sports, bet365, Paddy Power, Colossus Bets, These Football Times and more. Simon covers the Bundesliga and Serie A for Football Whispers.