Lille are back in European action at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy on Wednesday. Our Lille vs Sturm Graz prediction and Champions League betting tips consider whether either side can claim all the points.
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Lille vs Sturm Graz prediction: David to strike in narrow home win
Key stats
- Our Lille vs Sturm Graz betting tips take into account that four of Lille’s seven home wins this term have come by one goal margins.
- Three of Sturm Graz’s four defeats in the Champions League this season have come by a single goal.
- Their Champions League matches average just 1.6 goals per game.
Correct score prediction: Lille 2-1 Sturm Graz
While they are still most likely heading for the exit, Sturm Graz have competed pretty well in their Champions League games, and were only beaten 1-0 by Borussia Dortmund in their last away match.
That suggests that Lille may not run away with this. The French side are in good form though and have a bit of extra quality in the final third, which may prove to be the difference.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Lille the clear favourites
- HOME: 1/2 (1.50) – 66.7%
- DRAW: 10/3 (4.33) – 23.1%
- AWAY: 5/1 (6.00) – 16.7%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The hosts are the favourites according to the Lille vs Sturm Graz odds with an implied probability of 66.7% that they win this match.
They head into this game after an impressive 3-1 home win against Brest in Ligue 1, with Jonathan David scoring twice.
As for Sturm Graz, they won 3-0 at WSG Tirol in the Austrian Bundesliga at the weekend, in a game that saw both sides reduced to 10 men.
For more from the upcoming action in Europe, today’s free football tips look at some of the best picks.
Most recent H2Hs: Third meeting in 2024
Our Lille vs Sturm Graz prediction suggests the French side will have the edge, as was also the case earlier this year, when they won a UEFA Conference League clash between the clubs.
On that occasion, Lille won 3-0 in the first leg in Austria, before a 1-1 draw in the return clash at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
UEFA Conference League 14/03/24
Lille
SK Sturm Graz
UEFA Conference League 07/03/24
SK Sturm Graz
Lille
Lille preview: Injury concerns for Genesio
The hosts are missing Tiago Santos and Ethan Mbappe to injuries. Angel Gomes and Thomas Meunier are rated doubtful.
Predicted Lineup: Chevalier (GK), Mandi, Diakite, Alexsandro, Gudmundsson, Andre, Bouaddi, Mukau, Cabella, David & Zhegrova
France Ligue 1 10/05/25
L Brest 2 Lille 0 France Ligue 1 04/05/25
D Marseille 1 Lille 1 France Ligue 1 27/04/25
W Angers 0 Lille 2 France Ligue 1 20/04/25
W Auxerre 1 Lille 3 France Ligue 1 12/04/25
W Toulouse 1 Lille 2
Sturm Graz preview: Gazibegovic serves a ban
Jusuf Gazibegovic is suspended after getting booked last time out. Kjell Scherpen is injured, while Aleksandar Borkovic is rated doubtful.
Predicted Lineup: Khudiakov (GK), Johnston, Aiwu, Wuthrich, Lavalee, Chukwuani, Yalcouye, Boving, Kiteishvili, Biereth & Jatta
Austria Bundesliga 09/05/25
W FC Salzburg 2 SK Sturm Graz 4 Austria Bundesliga 04/05/25
W FC Blau Weiss Linz 0 SK Sturm Graz 1 Austria Bundesliga 27/04/25
L FK Austria Vienna 1 SK Sturm Graz 0 Austria Bundesliga 23/04/25
L FK Austria Vienna 2 SK Sturm Graz 1 Austria Bundesliga 20/04/25
W FC Blau Weiss Linz 0 SK Sturm Graz 2
Player to watch – Jonathan David
Lille striker Jonthan David has scored four goals so far in the league phase of the Champions League. That’s as many as the combined total from the rest of the Lille and Sturm Graz squads.
David striking at the death
35% of David’s goals this season in all competitions have come after the 75th minute. That includes a key penalty in Extra Time against Fenerbahce in Champions League qualifying.