Spain vs Germany prediction, odds & betting tips – 05/07/2024

Spain and Germany clash in a mouthwatering Euro 2024 quarter-final on Friday. Our Spain vs Germany prediction considers which side will emerge victorious in a game that sees many team of the tournament contenders clash.

Spain vs Germany prediction: Musiala to strike in score draw

Key stats

• Our Spain vs Germany betting tips take into account the free-scoring ways of both teams at this tournament with La Roja averaging 2.25 goals per game.
• Germany average 2.5 goals per game at their home Euros, the most of any team at this tournament.
• 64% of the internationals involving Germany since the start of the 2023/24 season have seen both teams score.

Correct score prediction: Spain 2-2 Germany

Both sides have shown plenty of attacking quality so far but there are doubts about how their defences will stand up against elite level opponents. With two positive-minded coaches, this has the potential to be a cracker.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Bookies struggling to call it

• SPAIN: 6/4 (2.50) – 40.0%
• DRAW: 9/4 (3.25) – 30.8%
• GERMANY: 7/4 (2.75) – 36.4%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

Luis de la Fuente’s team are the very slight favourites according to the Spain vs Germany odds with an implied probability of 40.0% that they win this in normal time.

Spain recovered from an early Robin Le Normand own goal to cruise past outsiders Georgia 4-1 in the last round with goals from Rodri, Nico Williams, Fabian Ruiz and Dani Olmo.

Meanwhile Germany got the better of some VAR calls to ultimately emerge 2-0 victors over Denmark thanks to strikes from Kai Havertz and Jamal Musiala.

For more of the latest football picks, today’s betting tips feature some of the best bets from this week’s action.

Last five H2Hs: 10 years since last German win

Our Spain vs Germany prediction of a score draw is backed up by three of the last four meetings which ended that way. The last Euros meeting was the 2008 final which La Roja won 1-0 thanks to a Fernando Torres goal.

World Cup 2022 27/11/22

Spain

1

Germany

1

UEFA Nations League 17/11/20

Spain

6

Germany

0

UEFA Nations League 03/09/20

Germany

1

Spain

1

International Match 23/03/18

Germany

1

Spain

1

International Match 18/11/14

Spain

0

Germany

1

Spain preview: Same again from De la Fuente?

Arguably the most impressive side in the tournament so far, Spain are expecting to have a clean bill of health for this game which would most likely mean an unchanged eleven.

Predicted Lineup: Simon (GK), Cucurella, Laporte, Le Normand, Carvajal, Fabian, Rodri, Pedri, Williams, Lamine Yamal & Morata

UEFA Nations League A 08/09/24

W

Switzerland

1

Spain

4

UEFA Nations League A 05/09/24

D

Serbia

0

Spain

0

Euro 2024 14/07/24

W

England

1

Spain

2

Euro 2024 09/07/24

W

France

1

Spain

2

Euro 2024 05/07/24

W

Germany

1

Spain

2

Germany preview: Tah returns from ban

The German boss could also be afforded the luxury of picking from a full squad. Jonathan Tah is available again after suspension and may return in defence while Florian Wirtz is pushing for a recall.

Predicted Lineup: Neuer (GK), Raum, Rudiger, Tah, Kimmich, Kroos, Andrich, Gundogan, Sane, Musiala & Havertz

UEFA Nations League A 10/09/24

D

Netherlands

2

Germany

2

UEFA Nations League A 07/09/24

W

Hungary

0

Germany

5

Euro 2024 05/07/24

L

Spain

2

Germany

1

Euro 2024 29/06/24

W

Denmark

0

Germany

2

Euro 2024 23/06/24

D

Switzerland

1

Germany

1

Key duels

Nico Williams vs Joshua Kimmich

Athletic winger Nico Williams has been exceptional for Spain. He scored, assisted and completed 100% of his passes in the last round against Georgia so Germany will need right back Joshua Kimmich to defend well on Friday.

Toni Kroos vs Fabian Ruiz

Another key battle will be in midfield where both Toni Kroos and Fabian Ruiz will be looking to get on the ball and put their teams on the front foot. Kroos averages a team high 3.3 key passes per game at Euro 2024 while Fabian is the only player to have both scored and assisted twice at this tournament.

Alvaro Morata vs Antonio Rudiger

There should be a real physical battle between Alvaro Morata and Antonio Rudiger who are on either side of the Madrid divide in La Liga. Morata scored three times in matches against Rudiger during the 2023/24 season, helping to inflict on Real Madrid their only two defeats of the campaign.

Player to watch – Jamal Musiala

One of the biggest young stars at Euro 2024, Jamal Musiala has certainly lived up to the hype with goals in all three of Germany’s victories. Score again here and he’ll be in very strong contention to end the tournament with the golden boot.

Clinical finishing from the 21 year old

While he may be the tournament’s joint top goalscorer, Musiala has only had seven attempts on goal at Euro 2024, scoring with an impressive 43% of his efforts. Contrast that to Cristiano Ronaldo and Kylian Mbappe who both average five shots per game, but have a combined total of just one goal.

Winner’s next potential opponents

With two teams that probably showed the most at EUROs so far meeting in the quarter-finals, it's tough to predict who gets to the next stage, but whoever does will have another tough match ahead since their potential opponents in the semi-final are Portugal or France.

When it comes to Spain, they have a positive H2H record with both of these teams, but they've done much better against Portugal with a record of 17 wins, 17 draws, and just six losses. Meanwhile, the Spanish national team has a record of 16-7-13 against France.

Meanwhile, Germany will prefer to play Portugal, based on the H2H records. After all, Germany have beaten Portugal 11 times before, along with five draws and just three losses. On the other hand, they have struggled against France with a record of 11 wins, eight draws, and 15 losses.

In any case, if Spain or Germany can get to the final, the most likely opponents based on odds are Netherlands and England, but we could also see them face off against Switzerland or Turkey.

The latest Tweets from each camp

Spain

⭐ 𝐔𝐍𝐀 𝐕𝐈𝐒𝐈𝐓𝐀 𝐃𝐄 𝐋𝐄𝐘𝐄𝐍𝐃𝐀 ⭐

🧤 ¿Quién mejor que @IkerCasillas para animar a la @Sefutbol antes de su partido ante Alemania?#VamosEspaña | #EURO2024 pic.twitter.com/NGcDcen5hm

— Selección Española Masculina de Fútbol (@SEFutbol) July 5, 2024

Germany

The day we’ve all been waiting for Spain vs. Germany! 🙌🙌#DFB #GermanFootball #GermanMNT #EURO2024 #ESPGER

📸 DFB/ Philipp Reinhard/ Getty Images pic.twitter.com/DkXCpE5MnK

— German Football (@DFB_Team_EN) July 5, 2024