Spain and France clash in the first semi-final at Euro 2024 in Munich on Tuesday. Our Spain vs France prediction considers whether La Roja can extend their impressive run in Germany by edging past Les Bleus.
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Spain vs France prediction: La Roja to edge low scoring affair
Key stats
- Our Spain vs France betting tips take into account the low-scoring nature of matches involving Didier Deschamps’ side at this tournament with their fixtures averaging just 0.8 goals per game in total.
- Only one of France’s last seven internationals has seen both teams score.
- Spain have only lost one of their last 17 fixtures.
Correct score prediction: Spain 1-0 France
France just haven’t really found their groove in an attacking sense at this tournament, scoring just three goals in 480 minutes of football. By contrast, Spain have been fluent and while not always clinical, they are creating enough chances to suggest they can find the breakthrough here.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Little to choose between the teams
- SPAIN: 8/5 (2.60) – 38.5%
- DRAW: 2/1 (3.00) – 33.3%
- FRANCE: 17/10 (2.70) – 37.0%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Luis de la Fuente’s side are the very slight favourites according to the Spain vs France odds with an implied probability of 38.5% that they win this one.
They head into this game after knocking out hosts Germany with Mikel Merino’s header deep in extra time sealing a 2-1 win in their quarter-final.
France by contrast were involved in a tight last eight showdown against Portugal which ended goalless after 120 minutes with Joao Felix’s miss in the shootout proving decisive.
For more of the latest football picks, today’s betting tips feature some of the best bets from this week’s action.
Last five H2Hs: An even rivalry
Our Spain vs France prediction points to a narrow win for the Iberians who have won 16 of the all-time meetings compared to France’s 13. Spain won the most recent major tournament clash in the last eight at Euro 2012 but France were 2-1 winners in the 2021 UEFA Nations League final.
UEFA Nations League 10/10/21
Spain
France
International Match 28/03/17
France
Spain
International Match 04/09/14
France
Spain
Spain preview: Suspensions a problem for De la Fuente
Two of the usual Spanish back four are missing with Dani Carvajal and Robin Le Normand suspended, however striker Alvaro Morata is available after reports of him being booked against Germany proved false. Pedri is a major injury doubt, but in-form Dani Olmo may be preferred in any case.
Predicted Lineup: Simon (GK), Cucurella, Laporte, Nacho, Navas, Rodri, Fabian, Williams, Olmo, Yamal, Morata
UEFA Nations League A 08/09/24 W Switzerland 1 Spain 4 UEFA Nations League A 05/09/24 D Serbia 0 Spain 0 Euro 2024 14/07/24 W England 1 Spain 2 Euro 2024 09/07/24 W France 1 Spain 2 Euro 2024 05/07/24 W Germany 1 Spain 2
France preview: Out of sorts Mbappe a concern
Les Bleus are hoping to have a full squad available for this game but Kylian Mbappe is still being troubled by a broken nose which may be a factor in his struggles in Germany. Adrien Rabiot returns from a ban.
Predicted Lineup: Maignan (GK), Hernandez, Upamecano, Saliba, Kounde, Tchouameni, Rabiot, Kante, Griezmann, Mbappe, Kolo Muani
UEFA Nations League A 09/09/24 W Belgium 0 France 2 UEFA Nations League A 06/09/24 L Italy 3 France 1 Euro 2024 09/07/24 L Spain 2 France 1 Euro 2024 05/07/24 W Portugal 0 (3) France 0 (5) Euro 2024 01/07/24 W Belgium 0 France 1
Key duels
Nacho vs Kylian Mbappe
France have somewhat limped through to the last four without Kylian Mbappe producing anything like his best football. With Spain forced into defensive changes, he’s likely to be in direct competition with Nacho here. Mbappe averages 5.0 shots per game at this tournament, but has only scored once.
Nico Williams vs Jules Kounde
One of the best young players at Euro 2024, Nico Williams has been really dangerous on the left flank for Spain, averaging 2.5 dribbles and 2.3 key passes per game. Jules Kounde has also done well at right back for France so this could be an intriguing duel to watch play out.
Lamine Yamal vs Theo Hernandez
On the other side of the pitch, 16 year old Lamine Yamal will play the biggest game of his young career to date and he’ll be relishing the challenge against Theo Hernandez. Yamal has assisted three goals at Euro 2024, a tally no other player can better.
Player to watch – Dani Olmo
Despite only starting one match, Dani Olmo has had a huge impact on Euro 2024 with two goals and two assists. He averages a goal contribution every 66 minutes at the tournament.
Olmo establishing himself as an elite performer
Partly because he has played his club football elsewhere, even many Spaniards have been slow to appreciate Dani Olmo but he’s been outstanding at this tournament, averaging 3.5 shots and 2.3 key passes per game.
Winner’s next potential opponents
Since we've reached the semi-final of EURO 2024, the winner of the Spain vs France duel will get to play in the final match and potential opponents for them are Netherlands and England.
Spain vs Netherlands
The Spanish national team have met with the Netherlands 13 times before and the score is pretty close, with six wins for the Dutch and five for the Spaniards, along with two draws. These teams have never met at EUROs before, but they did meet in the World Cup final in 2010 in South Africa, when Spain have won their first-ever World Cup with a win after extra time.
Spain vs England
Meanwhile, Spain and England have met 27 times throughout their history, with England having the better H2H record by a small margin: 13-4-10. In their two meetings at Euros, England have won both times, in 1980 and 1996.
France vs Netherlands
These two teams have met 31 times before and France have a bit better record in those games: 15-5-11. Meanwhile, France and the Netherlands have met at European Championships four times so far, with their biggest matchup being the 1996 quarter-finals, which France have won after penalties.
France vs England
While the freshest meeting between these two teams has gone to France in the quarter-finals of 2022 World Cup in Qatar, England actually have a better H2H record: 17-5-10. However, England have never beaten France at EUROs in their three meetings, with two of their duels ending in draws and one win for the French.
