Spain vs England: Why unlikely La Roja defender can land huge 25/1 winner in Nations League decider

England did just enough against Croatia at Wembley Stadium to set up a winner-takes-all clash with Spain in Madrid on Sunday night, although Thomas Tuchel's side face a considerably tougher test against the reigning European and World champions.

La Roja have won 12 consecutive matches and are unbeaten in 43 games across all competitions, making them clear favourites to finish top of Nations League Group A3.

The Three Lions, meanwhile, looked far from convincing on Thursday and have a growing list of defensive absentees. That could create an opportunity to target the outside-the-box shooting markets for whoever starts in the Spanish backline.

Back Spain's defenders to test England from distance

England's defensive problems were particularly evident against Croatia, with Marc Guehi, Ezri Konsa, John Stones, Djed Spence and Nico O'Reilly all missing.

Tuchel was forced to field Dan Burn and Jarrell Quansah in the 2-1 victory, while even if Konsa returns, England are unlikely to have their preferred defensive combination available in Madrid.

That could encourage Spain's defenders to contribute further forward, particularly when England sit deep and leave space around the edge of their penalty area.

Aymeric Laporte is an interesting option. Two of his five attempts at the 2026 World Cup came from outside the box, including one particularly ambitious effort from inside his own half. Pau Cubarsi also demonstrated his willingness to shoot from distance during the tournament, with two of his four attempts originating outside the area and both finding the target.

Spain's recent victory over Czechia provided further encouragement. Laporte was absent, with Dean Huijsen deputising alongside Cubarsi. The Real Madrid defender registered three attempts, one of which was on target, including a blocked effort from outside the box. Cubarsi also struck the woodwork from inside the penalty area.

There is reason to believe England could allow similar opportunities on Sunday. In the previous meeting between these sides, the Three Lions conceded seven attempts from outside the box, while Spain have averaged more long-range shots per 90 minutes at home than away.

Backing one of the Spanish centre-backs to register a shot on target from distance is a speculative approach, but the prices are sufficiently generous to make it worth considering.

Spain vs England best bets

Dean Huijsen to have a shot on target from outside the box – 22/1 (23.00) with bet365

Huijsen registered three shots against Czechia, including one from outside the area. If he starts again, he could offer value at a sizeable price.

Pau Cubarsi to have a shot on target from outside the box – 25/1 (26.00) with Paddy Power

Two of Cubarsi's four World Cup attempts came from distance, and both were on target. His willingness to shoot makes him the best option of the three.

Aymeric Laporte to have a shot on target from outside the box – 25/1 (26.00) with Betfred

Laporte attempted five shots at the World Cup, two from outside the area. If selected, he could be another candidate to test England's goalkeeper from range.

Double selections

For those looking to increase the potential return, there are also some sizeable prices available on two defenders each registering a shot on target from outside the box:

• Laporte and Cubarsi – 170/1 (171.00) with bet365
• Cubarsi and Huijsen – 250/1 (251.00) with bet365
• Laporte and Huijsen – 300/1 (301.00) with Betfred

Team news will be important, so checking the starting line-ups before committing to any of these markets is advisable.