Portugal are overwhelming favourites to ease past Slovenia at the Frankfurt Arena in what looks like a Round of 16 mismatch on Monday, 1 July. Can the Portuguese flex their considerable muscle to end the dogged Slovenians’ Euro 2024 adventure? Read our top Euro 2024 betting tips for the contest to find out.
Contents
- 1 Portugal vs Slovenia prediction: Professional Portugal to prevail
- 2 Pre-game odds and win probability: Slovenia massive underdogs
- 3 Last five H2Hs: Just one previous encounter to look back on
- 4 Portugal preview: Star players in line to return
- 5 Slovenia preview: Defender Janza suspended
- 6 Key duels
- 7 Player to watch – Vitinha
- 8 Winner’s next potential opponents
- 9 The latest Tweets from each camp
Portugal vs Slovenia prediction: Professional Portugal to prevail
Key Stats
- Slovenia have yet to post a single victory at Euro 2024, while Portugal have already won twice.
- Portugal scored at least twice in two of their three Group F fixtures.
- Only three teams have a lower overall xG (expected goals) than Slovenia (2.89) at Euro 2024.
- Slovenia have yet to score a first-half goal at Euro 2024.
Correct score prediction: Portugal 2-0 Slovenia
Portugal posted xG figures of 1.90, 1.90 and 2.00 in their three Group C matches and they possess enough firepower to score twice at Slovenia’s expense on Monday. The Slovenians have mustered just seven shots on target in total at Euro 2024, which is the third-lowest tally at the tournament and they could struggle to make an impact in the final third again here.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Slovenia massive underdogs
- HOME: 2/5 (1.40) – 71.4%
- DRAW: 7/2 (4.50) – 22.3%
- AWAY: 15/2 (8.50) – 11.8%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
A much-changed Portugal were embarrassed by Georgia (0-2) in their last Group F outing, however, with pride to restore and the big guns back in their XI, they should be a different prospect against Slovenia. The Seleção’s impressive 3-0 win over Turkey on matchday two was a better indicator of their ability and their odds of 2/5 to win on Monday look fitting.
Slovenia battled their way to three draws against Denmark, Serbia and England in Group C and qualified for the knockouts as one of the best third-place finishers. Their lack of cutting edge in the final third remains a major issue however, and they have been priced as 15/2 outsiders due to that shortage of attacking menace. Head over to our football betting tips page for more free Euro 2024 picks and expert analysis.
Last five H2Hs: Just one previous encounter to look back on
Slovenia and Portugal met to contest an international friendly fixture as recently as March 26th this year, and the Slovenians recorded a 2-0 in Ljubljana on that occasion. Portugal were missing a number of their best players in that loss, however.
International Match 26/03/24
Slovenia
Portugal
Portugal preview: Star players in line to return
With their qualification already secured, Joao Cancelo, Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, Pepe, Vitinha and Nuno Mendes were rested against Georgia, though all six players are expected to come back into Roberto Martinez's XI on Monday.
Predicted lineup: Costa (GK), Cancelo, Dias, Pepe, Mendes, Vitinha, Palhinha, Silva, Fernandes, Leao, Ronaldo
UEFA Nations League 23/03/25
W
Denmark
2
Portugal
5
UEFA Nations League 20/03/25
L
Denmark
1
Portugal
0
UEFA Nations League A 18/11/24
D
Croatia
1
Portugal
1
UEFA Nations League A 15/11/24
W
Poland
1
Portugal
5
UEFA Nations League A 15/10/24
D
Scotland
0
Portugal
0
Slovenia preview: Defender Janza suspended
Erik Janza picked up a booking against England last time out and the defender will sit out Monday's game through suspension as a consequence. Highly rated prospect Benjamin Sesko should lead the line again.
Predicted lineup: Oblak (GK), Karnicnik, Dkrusic, Bijol, Balkovec, Stojanovic, Gnezda Cerin, Elsnik, Mlakar, Sporar, Sesko
UEFA Nations League 23/03/25
W
Slovakia
0
Slovenia
1
UEFA Nations League 20/03/25
D
Slovakia
0
Slovenia
0
UEFA Nations League B 17/11/24
D
Austria
1
Slovenia
1
UEFA Nations League B 14/11/24
L
Norway
4
Slovenia
1
UEFA Nations League B 13/10/24
W
Kazakhstan
0
Slovenia
1
Key duels
Joao Palhinha vs Timi Max Elsnik
Hard-hitting midfielder Joao Palhinha has been averaging 3.00 tackles and 1.50 fouls per game for Portugal, though he is walking a suspension tightrope and that might affect the ferocity of his challenges against creative Slovenian Timi Max Elsnik.
Cristiano Ronaldo vs Jaka Bijol
Jaka Bijol has been a tower of strength at centre-half for Slovenia, averaging 3.00 tackles and 2.00 interceptions per game so far, though the 25-year-old faces a thorough examination of his defensive skills against Cristiano Ronaldo. The 39-year-old is still waiting to break his duck at Euro 2024.
Bernardo Silva vs Jure Balkovec
If as expected, Jure Balkovec fills in at left back for the suspended Erik Janza, the 29-year-old, who has seen just a single minute of action at Euro 2024 so far, faces the unenviable task of marking slippery Portuguese technician Bernardo Silva. 29-year-old Silva has been averaging 3.00 key passes per game in Germany.
Player to watch – Vitinha
While his more attack-minded teammates tend to hog the spotlight, diminutive possession recycler Vitinha has been going about his business in style in midfield and his ability to knit play together could be crucial again on Monday.
Vitinha to pull the strings for Portugal
With Joao Palhinha acting as a physical foil, Vitinha is an important distributor for Portugal and he has completed 93.3% of his attempted passes at Euro 2024 so far, and he also ranks third for average passes played per game (75). Expect the 24-year-old to see plenty of the ball again on Monday.
Winner’s next potential opponents
The team that wins this duel will get to play against either France or Belgium in the quarter finals and neither Portugal or Slovenia will be too happy about it since these are two major favourites to go all the way. France are the expected winners in that matchup though, so how would the winners of this duel fare against them?
Portugal have a very poor record against France since they've lost 19 of the 28 H2H duels against them, along with three draws and just six wins. Slovenia have only met with France three times, but they've lost all of those matches.
Still, if Portugal or Slovenia can get past France or Belgium, their opponent in the semi-final would be the winner of the duel between the hosts Germany and Spain, the only team with all four wins at the tournament so far. Lastly, in the potential final, the winner of this match would most likely get to play England or the Netherlands, two main contenders from the other bracket side.
The latest Tweets from each camp
Portugal
Está tudo ??????. ?? #PartilhaAPaixão | #EURO2024 pic.twitter.com/2jn77GCnzk
— Portugal (@selecaoportugal) July 1, 2024
Slovenia
????? ???? ?????????! ??
?????
?️ Frankfurt Arena
? @RTV_Slovenija 2 , @Sport_Klub_Slo 1
⚠️ Informacije za navijače (zbor navijačev, fan walk) https://t.co/zrBl4T2RKX#SrceBije ?? | #EURO2024 ? pic.twitter.com/4fhdFhkgDQ— NZS | FA Slovenia (@nzs_si) July 1, 2024