Sao Paulo vs Botafogo prediction, odds & betting tips – 26/09/2024
Sao Paulo's quarter-final clash with Botafogo is on a knife edge ahead of the second leg. (Photo by Imago)
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Under 2.5 total goals

Five of Sao Paulo’s last six games have produced under 2.5 goals.

Sao Paulo take on Botafogo at the MorumBIS in the second leg of their Copa Libertadores quarter-final clash on Wednesday, 26 September. Read our Copa Libertadores tips for the fixture below.

Sao Paulo vs Botafogo prediction: Margins could be slim

Key Stats

  • Sao Paulo and Botafogo drew 0-0 in the quarter-final first leg last week.
  • In-form Botafogo are in the midst of an eight-game unbeaten streak in all competitions.
  • Four players were booked in last week’s first-leg stalemate.
  • Five of Sao Paulo’s last six matches have featured under 2.5 goals.

Correct score prediction: Sao Paulo 0-0 Botafogo

Chances were thin on the ground in last week’s quarter-final first-leg tussle between Brazilian rivals Sau Paulo and Botafogo and the teams could be just as difficult to split in the return fixture. Don’t be surprised if this one goes to extra time.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Sao Paulo favoured in the markets

  • HOME: 13/8 (2.63) – 38.1%
  • DRAW: 2/1 (3.00) – 33.3%
  • AWAY: 2/1 (3.00) – 33.3%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

Sao Paulo were beaten 3-1 at home by Internacional last time out, though they clearly had one eye on this Copa Libertadores quarter-final and the 13/8 favourites should be much more competitive on Wednesday.

Botafogo meanwhile, pushed their unbeaten run to eight games with an excellent 1-0 win at Fluminense at the weekend, though they remain slight underdogs in the match result markets here at 2/1. View more of our South American tips on our football predictions page.

Most recent H2Hs: Draws have been common

Sao Paulo and Botafogo have drawn each of their last three meetings, while Botafogo avoided defeat in each of the last seven editions of this fixture overall.

Copa Libertadores 19/09/24

Botafogo

Botafogo

0
Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo

0

Brazil Serie A 24/07/24

Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo

2
Botafogo

Botafogo

2

Brazil Serie A 19/08/23

Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo

0
Botafogo

Botafogo

0

Brazil Serie A 15/04/23

Botafogo

Botafogo

2
Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo

1

Brazil Serie A 09/10/22

Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo

0
Botafogo

Botafogo

1

Sao Paulo preview: Fernandinho still out

Joao Moreira, Aldemir Ferreira, Patryck, Alisson and Pablo Maia are all in the treatment room for Sao Paulo and will miss Wednesday's game. Sao Paulo used a 3-4-3 formation in last week's first leg and could deploy a similar system in the return fixture.

Predicted lineup: Rafael (GK), Franco, Arboleda, Sabino, Rafinha, Bobadilla, Gustavo, Welington, Moura, William, Calleri

Brazil Serie A 11/05/25

L

Palmeiras

Palmeiras

1

Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo

0

Copa Libertadores 06/05/25

W

Alianza Lima

Alianza Lima

0

Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo

2

Brazil Serie A 03/05/25

D

Fortaleza

Fortaleza

0

Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo

0

Copa do Brasil 30/04/25

W

Nautico

Nautico

1

Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo

2

Brazil Serie A 26/04/25

D

Ceara

Ceara

1

Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo

1

Botafogo preview: Two players missing for visitors

Botafogo will be without the services of the injured Cuiabano, Jeffinho, Pablo and Rafael da Silva this week while Matheus Nascimento is considered a doubt. Igor Jesus and Tiquinho Soares will be vying for a place up front on Wednesday.

Predicted lineup: John (GK), Vitinho, Bastos, Barboza, Telles, Gergore, Freitas, Henrique, Savarino, Almada, Soares

Brazil Serie A 11/05/25

W

Internacional

Internacional

0

Botafogo

Botafogo

4

Copa Libertadores 06/05/25

W

Carabobo

Carabobo

1

Botafogo

Botafogo

2

Brazil Serie A 04/05/25

L

EC Bahia

EC Bahia

1

Botafogo

Botafogo

0

Copa do Brasil 30/04/25

W

Capital CF

Capital CF

0

Botafogo

Botafogo

4

Brazil Serie A 27/04/25

W

Fluminense

Fluminense

0

Botafogo

Botafogo

2

Player to watch – Rafael

Experienced campaigner Rafael was in top form between the sticks in last week’s first leg, making six saves to earn Sao Paulo a share of the spoils at Botafogo.

Sao Paulo vs Botafogo prediction
Rafael could be overworked between the sticks for Sao Paulo again. (Photo by Imago)

Rafael could be busy again

Botafogo mustered 22 attempts to Sao Paulo’s six in last week’s first-leg 0-0 draw and but for 35-year-old Rafael, the visitors would have been convincingly beaten. The keeper will need to be at his best again on Wednesday if Sao Paulo are to stand a chance of progressing to the Copa Libertadores semis.


Simon Winter is a professional football tipster and sports journalist with over ten years in the industry. Best known for his time with Racing Post, Simon has also had work published by Freesupertips, Bloomberg Sports, bet365, Paddy Power, Colossus Bets, These Football Times and more. Simon covers the Bundesliga and Serie A for Football Whispers.