Sao Paulo vs Bahia prediction, odds & betting tips 30/06/2024

🔥 Our Hot tip

Sao Paulo to win

The last time Sao Paulo lost a league game to Bahia at this stadium was in July 2013

Three points will be up for grabs as Sao Paulo and Bahia square off against each other at Estádio Cicero Pompeu de Toledo this weekend. View our free Sao Paulo vs Bahia predictions below.

Sao Paulo vs Bahia predictions: A low-scoring affair

Key stats

  • Ten of the last 11 meetings between these teams featured less than three goals.
  • Sao Paulo opened the scoring in six of their last eight games in all competitions.
  • Bahia won just one of the last seven skirmishes between these teams.
  • Sao Paulo kept four clean sheets in their last six home games.

Correct score prediction: Sao Paulo 2-0 Bahia

Sao Paulo won three of their last five home games by two unanswered goals. They also kept three clean sheets in the last four skirmishes between these sides.

Pre-game odds and win probability:

  • Sao Paulo:10/11 (1.91) – 52.4%
  • Draw:11/5 (3.20) – 31.3%
  • Bahia:5/2 (3.50) – 28.6%

*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

To be fair, Bahia have been the best home team in the Serie A this season, with a perfect six wins from six at home. However, their record on the road doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. Rogerio Ceni’s men managed one win in six matches away from home.

With that in mind, Sao Paulo are the expected winners at 10/11 (1.91). Teams with these odds usually have a 52.4% probability of winning.

Don’t forget to check out more of our best betting tips and predictions after you’ve dissected our Sao Paulo vs Bahia predictions.

It's also important to note that at least one team blanked in nine of the last 11 meetings between these outfits. On that note, BTTS – no has an appealing look at 1/1 (2.00). That one has a 50% chance of landing.

Last five H2Hs: Bahia eyeing their first win here in five years

We've established that previous meetings between Sao Paulo and Bahia were mostly on the low-scoring side. That said, Sao Paulo lost just once in the last seven encounters between these sides, with three wins and three draws.

Brazil Serie A 29/11/23

EC Bahia

EC Bahia

0
Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo

1

Brazil Serie A 30/07/23

Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo

0
EC Bahia

EC Bahia

0

Brazil Serie A 07/11/21

EC Bahia

EC Bahia

1
Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo

0

Brazil Serie A 10/07/21

Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo

1
EC Bahia

EC Bahia

0

Brazil Serie A 28/11/20

EC Bahia

EC Bahia

1
Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo

3

Team news and form guide

Sao Paulo: Sights set on a top-five spot

Sao Paulo have four players away on international duty, while Pablo Maia, João Moreira and Rafinha are still ruled out with injuries.

Predicted lineup: Jandrei (GK), Vinicius, Arboleda, Franco, Welington, Alisson, Gustavo, Moura, Luciano, Ferreira & Calleri.

Brazil Serie A 17/07/24

W

Gremio

Gremio

0

Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo

1

Brazil Serie A 12/07/24

L

Atletico Mineiro

Atletico Mineiro

2

Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo

1

Brazil Serie A 06/07/24

W

Bragantino

Bragantino

0

Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo

2

Brazil Serie A 04/07/24

W

Athletico Paranaense

Athletico Paranaense

1

Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo

2

Brazil Serie A 30/06/24

W

EC Bahia

EC Bahia

1

Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo

3

Bahia: Looking to string up three consecutive wins

Santiago Arias is the only absentee for Bahia. He's representing Colombia at the Copa America.

Predicted lineup: Felipe (GK), Gilberto, Xavier, Kanu, Juba, Alexandre, Ribeiro, Cauly, Lucas, Everaldo & Thaciano.

Brazil Serie A 13/07/24

L

Cuiaba

Cuiaba

2

EC Bahia

EC Bahia

1

Brazil Serie A 10/07/24

W

Athletico Paranaense

Athletico Paranaense

1

EC Bahia

EC Bahia

3

Brazil Serie A 07/07/24

L

Palmeiras

Palmeiras

2

EC Bahia

EC Bahia

0

Brazil Serie A 04/07/24

W

EC Juventude

EC Juventude

0

EC Bahia

EC Bahia

2

Brazil Serie A 30/06/24

L

Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo

3

EC Bahia

EC Bahia

1

Player to watch: Oscar Estupiñán

Sao Paulo vs Bahia predictions
Oscar Estupiñán scored three times in his last two matches. (Photo by Icon Sport)

Oscar Estupiñán scored the winning goal in Bahia's 2-1 win against Vasco da Gama a few days ago, after his stellar performance against Cruzeiro last weekend. The Colombian forward is just starting to find his stride, and has secured a place in the team's starting lineup due to his fine form.

To put things into perspective, Estupiñán has scored three times in his last two matches, which is more than he did in 12 games before that. It will be fascinating to see if the former Hull City player can score in three consecutive matches for the first time since January 2023.


Kelechi is a huge sports fan with over 10 years of betting experience. He has written for a few publications like What Are The Odds, Mighty Tips and Betting Detectives