A finely poised Europa League play-off tie concludes in Cyprus on Thursday. Our APOEL vs RFS prediction and Europa League betting tips consider whether the visitors can make a 2-1 first leg advantage count.
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APOEL vs RFS prediction: Hosts to edge low-scoring affair
Key stats
- Our APOEL vs RFS betting tips take into account that a record of six wins from their last eight at home in Europe for the Cypriot side.
- Both teams have scored in only two of the seven European matches involving RFS this season.
- Six of APOEL’s last seven matches, including friendlies, have ended with under 2.5 goals.
Correct score prediction: APOEL 1-0 RFS
While RFS had the better of the first leg in Latvia, the hot conditions in Cyprus ought to favour APOEL in the return leg. They’ve not scored more than once in any of their last four European home games though, so this one may go the distance.
Pre-game odds and win probability: APOEL expected to fight back
- HOME: 4/7 (1.57) – 63.6%
- DRAW: 3/1 (4.00) – 25.0%
- AWAY: 9/2 (5.50) – 18.2%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The hosts are the favourites according to the APOEL vs RFS odds with an implied probability of 63.6% that they win the game.
APOEL head into this match after a free weekend, so they’ve not played since the first leg which the Latvians won 2-1 with goals from Cedric Kouadio and Janis Ikaunieks.
Meanwhile, RFS were back in league action on Sunday, drawing 0-0 away to Riga.
For more picks, today’s free football tips take a look at some of the best options from the action across Europe.
Most recent H2Hs: First ever European tie
Our APOEL vs RFS prediction suggests the Cypriots shouldn’t be written off in what is the first ever European tie between the clubs. APOEL had never previously faced opposition from Latvia before last week’s clash.
UEFA Europa League Qualifying 22/08/24
Rigas FS
Apoel Nicosia
APOEL preview: Light changes possible
We’re unlikely to see the hosts press the panic button, but some light changes are possible in attack as they look to pose a greater threat this week.
Predicted Lineup: Belec (GK), Chebake, Susic, Dvali, Quintilla, Kostadinov, Donis, Corbu, Meyer, El-Arabi & Drazix
Cyprus Division 1 01/09/24 L Ethnikos Achnas 3 Apoel Nicosia 1 UEFA Europa League Qualifying 29/08/24 L Rigas FS 1 Apoel Nicosia 2 UEFA Europa League Qualifying 22/08/24 L Rigas FS 2 Apoel Nicosia 1 UEFA Champions League Qualifying 13/08/24 D Slovan Bratislava 0 Apoel Nicosia 0 UEFA Champions League Qualifying 07/08/24 L Slovan Bratislava 2 Apoel Nicosia 0
RFS preview: Continuity working for the visitors
A 9-0 aggregate win in the previous round against Santa Coloma came with identical elevens in the two legs. They made just one change last week, with Daniels Balodis coming in to bolster the defence and we could see the same players feature on Thursday.
Predicted Lineup: Ondoa (GK), Mares, Lipuscek, Balodis, Prenga, Savalnieks, Markhiev, Panic, Ikaunieks, Kouadio & Diomande
UEFA Europa League Qualifying 29/08/24 W Apoel Nicosia 2 Rigas FS 1 Latvia Virsliga 25/08/24 D Riga FC 0 Rigas FS 0 UEFA Europa League Qualifying 22/08/24 W Apoel Nicosia 1 Rigas FS 2 Latvia Cup 17/08/24 W Valmiera FC 3 Rigas FS 4 UEFA Europa League Qualifying 14/08/24 W UE Santa Coloma 0 Rigas FS 7 
Player to watch – Youssef El-Arabi
One player who has very recent memories of European success is Youssef El-Arabi who won the Conference League with Olympiacos last term. He scored in the first leg to open his tally for his new club.
A 20-goal striker in his prime
Now 37, El-Arabi has enjoyed an impressive career and boasted a strong goalscoring record in his prime. The Moroccan scored 20 or more goals in five straight league seasons between 2016 and 2021 in Qatar and Greece.
