Benfica will hope to overturn a one-goal deficit when they visit the Bernabeu for their UEFA Champions League encounter with Real Madrid on Wednesday, 25 February 2026.
View our free Real Madrid vs Benfica predictions below.
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Real Madrid vs Benfica predictions: Hosts to reign supreme
Key stats
- Real Madrid have won six consecutive home games across all competitions.
- Benfica suffered a 1-0 home defeat in the first leg of this tie.
- Los Blancos have averaged almost four goals in their last five home games.
Correct score prediction: Real Madrid 3-1 Benfica
Benfica's away record in the UEFA Champions League this season does not inspire much confidence, as they have lost three of their four matches on the road so far.
Jose Mourinho's men are up against a Real Madrid side that have won six home games in a row, averaging over three goals in that stretch.
Given that Benfica lost the first leg of this playoff tie at home, we are confident that Real Madrid will secure a fairly comfortable victory.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Real Madrid clearly favoured
- HOME: 4/9 (1.44) – 69.2%
- DRAW: 4/1 (5.00) – 20%
- AWAY: 5/1 (6.00) – 16.7%
*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Real Madrid's winning streak ended with a disappointing 2-1 defeat at Osasuna last weekend. Alvaro Arbeloa's men will turn their attention to the UEFA Champions League, where they are vying for a round of 16 spot.
On the other hand, Benfica bounced back from last week's defeat in the first leg of this tie with a comfortable 3-0 victory over AVS Futebol SAD last weekend. They will have to overturn a one-goal deficit for a chance to advance to the last 16.
Ahead of this skirmish, Real Madrid are the expected winners at 4/9 (1.44). Teams with these odds usually have a 69.2% probability of winning.
Don’t forget to check out more of our best betting tips and predictions after you’ve dissected our Real Madrid vs Benfica predictions.
Also, keeping in mind that over four goals were scored on average in Real Madrid's last five home games, over 3.5 total goals has an appealing look at 11/10 (2.10). That one has a 47.6% chance of landing.
Most recent H2Hs: Third encounter this year
On Wednesday, Real Madrid and Benfica will square off against each other for the third time in just under 30 days. Benfica defeated Real Madrid 4-2 in the last round of the league phase before succumbing to a 1-0 defeat when they clashed in the first leg of the playoffs last week.
UEFA Champions League 17/02/26
Benfica
Real Madrid
UEFA Champions League 28/01/26
Benfica
Real Madrid
UEFA Champions League 08/03/22
Real Madrid
Benfica
UEFA Champions League 15/02/22
Benfica
Real Madrid
Real Madrid preview: Few key absences
Real Madrid will definitely be without Eder Militao, Jude Bellingham, and the newly injured Dani Ceballos for this home game, with these players ruled out due to injury. However, Bellingham has returned to training with the group on Monday and could be ready for action next week.
Los Blancos will also have to do without Rodrygo Goes, who is serving the second of a two-match ban, while the quartet of Aurelien Tchouameni, Vinicius Jr., Dean Huijsen, and Alvaro Carreras could miss a potential round of 16 clash should they receive a booking on Wednesday night.
Predicted lineup: Courtois (GK), Alexander-Arnold, Rudiger, Asencio, Carreras, Valverde, Tchouameni, Camavinga, Guler, Vinicius Jr & Mbappe
Last five matches
- 21/02/26: Osasuna 2-1 Real Madrid (La Liga)
- 17/02/26: Benfica 0-1 Real Madrid (Champions League)
- 14/02/26: Real Madrid 4-1 Real Sociedad (La Liga)
- 08/02/26: Valencia 0-2 Real Madrid (La Liga)
- 01/02/26: Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
Benfica preview: Prestianni suspended
Benfica concluded their league clash against AVS on Saturday with no new injury concerns. This means that Mourinho's outfit will enter the second leg of their UEFA Champions League playoff against Real Madrid with a clean bill of health.
Alexander Bah has recovered from a cruciate ligament injury and could feature for the first time this season at the Bernabeu.
Mourinho will be unavailable in the dugout for Benfica following his sending off during last week's meeting in Lisbon. Gianluca Prestianni will also serve a provisional one-game ban here as the investigation of alleged racism against Vinicius continues.
Additionally, Samuel Dahl, Dodi Lukebakio, and Nicolas Otamendi are each a yellow card away from being suspended for the next round in case the visitors go through.
Predicted lineup: Trubin (GK), Dahl, Otamendi, T. Araujo, Dedic, Barreiro, Aursnes, Cabral, Silva, Schjelderup & Pavlidis
Last five matches
- 21/02/26: Benfica 3-0 AVS (Primeira Liga)
- 17/02/26: Benfica 0-1 Real Madrid (Champions League)
- 13/02/26: Santa Clara 1-2 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 08/02/26: Benfica 2-1 Alverca (Primeira Liga)
- 01/02/26: Tondela 0-0 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
Player to watch: Vinicius Jr
Vinicius Jr has been nothing short of impressive, scoring in each of his last four matches across all competitions. The 25-year-old scored the only goal in the first leg of this tie and will fancy his chances against Benfica once again.