It’s derby day in the Spanish capital on Sunday. Our Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction and La Liga tips consider whether either side can claim a key victory over their neighbours.
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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction: Low-scoring draw at the Civitas Metropolitano
Key stats
- Our Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid betting tips take into account that both sides are unbeaten this season, from a combined total of 17 matches in all competitions.
- Atleti have drawn three out of seven in La Liga this term.
- Vinicius Junior has been booked three times so far in La Liga 2024/25, more than any other player on either side of the Madrid divide.
Correct score prediction: Atletico Madrid 1-1 Real Madrid
These derbies are almost always close and it’s hard to make a strong case for either side here. Atleti look to have recruited well, but they aren’t creating loads of chances and remain dependent on Antoine Griezmann for attacking inspiration.
Real Madrid are also yet to produce their best football and they’ll be forced into a reshuffle here with Kylian Mbappe unavailable.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Los Blancos the slight favourites
- HOME: 17/10 (2.70) – 37.0%
- DRAW: 5/2 (3.50) – 28.6%
- AWAY: 29/20 (2.45) – 40.8%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The visitors are the marginal favourites according to the Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid odds with an implied probability of 40.8% that they win this match.
They head into this after a 3-2 win over Alaves in midweek, with Carlo Ancelotti’s side nearly letting a three goal advantage collapse in a sloppy end to the game.
As for Atleti, they snatched a 1-0 win away to Celta Vigo on Thursday with Julian Alvarez scoring late.
Today’s free football betting tips look at some of the best picks from the upcoming action around the world.
Most recent H2Hs: Real Madrid return to scene of recent defeats
Our Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction suggests we could get a third draw in five league meetings. Los Blancos were only beaten twice last term in all competitions, with both defeats coming against Atleti in this stadium, although their Copa del Rey loss did come in Extra Time.
Spain La Liga 04/02/24
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Spain Copa del Rey 18/01/24
Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid
England League 1 16/01/24
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Spain Super Cup 10/01/24
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Spain La Liga 24/09/23
Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid preview: Alvarez to get the nod up top
The hosts are expected to pick Julian Alvarez over Alexander Sorloth in attack. Pablo Barrios and Cesar Azpilicueta are out injured.
Predicted Lineup: Oblak (GK), Reinildo, Gimenez, Le Normand, Lino, Gallagher, Koke, De Paul, Llorente, Griezmann & Alvarez
UEFA Champions League 02/10/24 L Benfica 4 Atletico Madrid 0 Spain La Liga 29/09/24 D Real Madrid 1 Atletico Madrid 1 Spain La Liga 26/09/24 W Celta Vigo 0 Atletico Madrid 1 Spain La Liga 22/09/24 D Rayo Vallecano 1 Atletico Madrid 1 UEFA Champions League 19/09/24 W RB Leipzig 1 Atletico Madrid 2
Real Madrid preview: Mbappe to miss derby date
There’ll be no Mbappe at the Metropolitano with the Frenchman picking up an injury. David Alaba and Brahim Diaz are also out, but Eduardo Camavinga could be fit enough to make the bench.
Predicted Lineup: Courtois (GK), Mendy, Militao, Rudiger, Carvajal, Valverde, Tchouameni, Modric, Bellingham, Vinicius & Rodrygo
UEFA Champions League 02/10/24 L Lille 1 Real Madrid 0 Spain La Liga 29/09/24 D Atletico Madrid 1 Real Madrid 1 Spain La Liga 24/09/24 W CD Alaves 2 Real Madrid 3 Spain La Liga 21/09/24 W Espanyol 1 Real Madrid 4 UEFA Champions League 17/09/24 W VfB Stuttgart 1 Real Madrid 3
Player to watch – Vinicius Junior
Vincius hasn’t been at his best this season, but he was more like his old self in the 4-1 win over Espanyol last weekend. He still has a healthy return of three goals and three assists in seven appearances in La Liga this term.
Vinicius racking up the bookings
The Brazilian has now been booked 20 times in the Spanish top flight, since the start of the 2022/23 season. That’s a huge number for an attacking player.
