Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid prediction, odds & betting tips – 04/02/2024

Real Madrid
04/02/24 - 20:00

Finished

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Atletico Madrid

Real Madrid - Atletico Madrid

Spain Primera Liga - Santiago Bernabeu

Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid clash at the Santiago Bernabeu in La Liga on Sunday. Our Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid prediction considers whether Atleti can complete a hat-trick of wins over their rivals having already won league and Copa del Rey derbies this term.

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid prediction – Betting tips & odds

Hot Tip – Real Madrid to Win

  • Atletico Madrid have lost 4 of their last 5 away league games.
  • While Atleti have won 2 of the 3 meetings this term, Real Madrid were the better side for large periods of the two meetings so far in 2024, before tiredness crept in during their Extra Time defeat in the cup last month.

Our Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid betting tips suggest Los Blancos can make it 7 straight league wins here.

Latest odds

Head to Head

18/01/24

Spain Copa del Rey Spain

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

4

2

16/01/24

England League 1 League 1

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid

2

1

10/01/24

Spain Super Cup Spain

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid

5

3

24/09/23

Spain Primera Liga Liga

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

3

1

25/02/23

Spain Primera Liga Liga

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid

1

1

Last Five - Real Madrid

25/02/24

Spain Primera Liga Liga

Sevilla

Sevilla

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

0

1

W

18/02/24

Spain Primera Liga Liga

Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

1

1

D

14/02/24

Others Others

Man Utd

Man Utd

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

0

0

D

13/02/24

UEFA Champions League UCL

RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

0

1

W

10/02/24

Spain Primera Liga Liga

Girona

Girona

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

0

4

W

Last Five - Atletico Madrid

29/02/24

Spain Copa del Rey Spain

Athletic Bilbao

Athletic Bilbao

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid

3

0

L

24/02/24

Spain Primera Liga Liga

Almeria

Almeria

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid

2

2

D

20/02/24

UEFA Champions League UCL

Inter Milan

Inter Milan

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid

1

0

L

17/02/24

Spain Primera Liga Liga

Las Palmas

Las Palmas

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid

0

5

W

11/02/24

Spain Primera Liga Liga

Sevilla

Sevilla

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid

1

0

L

Win probability

  • HOME: 31/40 (1.78) – 56.3%
  • DRAW: 31/10 (4.10) – 24.4%
  • AWAY: 37/10 (4.70) – 21.3%

The Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid odds point to a home win being the most likely outcome in this match.

You can get odds of 9/4 (3.25) for Real Madrid to Win and Both Teams to Score, an implied probability of 30.8%.

Other options for building Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid bets include backing Vinicius Junior to score anytime at 8/5 (2.60), an implied probability of 38.5% while Antoine Griezmann is 3/1 (4.00) to score anytime, a probability of 25.0%.

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid prediction – Other tips

Real Madrid 2-1 Atletico Madrid

  • Our Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid prediction points to Los Blancos extending their unbeaten run in home league derbies which goes back to the 2015/16 season.
  • Atleti average just 1.30 points per game away in La Liga this term, the main reason they aren’t in title contention.

Both teams to score

  • There have been 18 goals in the 3 Madrid derbies so far this term with both teams scoring in every meeting.
  • Real Madrid are dealing with a central defensive injury crisis with David Alaba and Eder Militao both out long-term while Antonio Rudiger is a doubt after picking up a knock at Getafe.

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid prediction

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid team news

Real Madrid

The Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid lineups will see plenty of changes from the respective midweek lineups when both Carlo Ancelotti and Diego Simeone chose to rotate. Aurelien Tchouameni, who has been used in central defence, is suspended to add to the home team’s problems in that position so they’ll be desperately hoping that Rudiger recovers.

Predicted Lineup: Lunin (GK), Mendy, Nacho, Rudiger, Carvajal, Kroos, Camavinga, Valverde, Bellingham, Vinicius, Rodrygo

Atletico Madrid

Thomas Lemar, Cesar Azpilicueta and Jose Maria Gimenez are sidelined for the visitors. Alvaro Morata has been passed fit though and should start despite Memphis Depay’s sudden good form.

Predicted Lineup: Oblak (GK), Reinildo, Witsel, Savic, Lino, Koke, De Paul, Llorente, Molina, Griezmann, Morata

Confirmed lineups will appear here around 60 minutes before kickoff.

Real Madrid

Real Madrid
4-4-2
17
Lucas Vazquez
es
23
Ferland Mendy
fr
13
Andriy Lunin
ua
2
Dani Carvajal
es
15
Federico Valverde
uy
11
Rodrygo
br
12
Eduardo Camavinga
fr
8
Toni Kroos
de
6
Nacho
es
5
Jude Bellingham
gb
21
Brahim Diaz
es
Substitutes
7
Vinicius Junior
br
24
Arda Guler
tr
20
Francisco Garcia
es
26
Diego Pineiro
es
19
Dani Ceballos
es
10
Luka Modric
hr
14
Mato Joselu
es
25
Kepa Arrizabalaga
es

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid
4-4-2
15
Stefan Savic
me
6
Koke
es
7
Antoine Griezmann
fr
17
Rodrigo Riquelme
es
8
Saul Niguez
es
13
Jan Oblak
si
19
Alvaro Morata
es
20
Axel Witsel
be
5
Rodrigo De Paul
ar
14
Marcos Llorente
es
22
Mario Hermoso
es
Substitutes
31
Antonio Gomis Aleman
es
24
Pablo Barrios Rivas
es
12
Lino
pt
10
Angel Correa
ar
1
Horatiu Moldovan
ro
4
Gabriel Paulista
br
16
Nahuel Molina
ar
9
Memphis Depay
nl
23
Reinildo Mandava
mz
18
Arthur Vermeeren
be

Player to watch – Jude Bellingham

Jude Bellingham was suspended last weekend but returned in midweek as Real Madrid won 2-0 at Getafe and he should operate behind the front two again here.

Bellingham is the joint top scorer in La Liga with 14 goals heading into this matchday with his last goal coming in the 3-2 comeback win over Almeria in Real Madrid’s last match at the Bernabeu.

Check out our football betting tips page for more free predictions and picks.


Avatar of Mark Sochon
Mark Sochon

Mark is a freelance football writer based in Madrid. He regularly attends and covers La Liga matches around Spain, whilst also following football across Europe.