The second leg of the Madrid derby round-of-16 tie in the Champions League takes place on Wednesday. Our Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction and Champions League betting tips consider whether Diego Simeone’s side can come back, following a 2-1 defeat in the first leg at the Bernabeu.
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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction: Alvarez to score in draw
Key stats
- Our Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid betting tips take into account that seven of the last 10 games involving Los Blancos have seen both teams score.
- It’s just one defeat in 19 competitive home games for Atletico Madrid this season.
- Real Madrid have won six in a row in the Champions League, since their defeat at Anfield in November.
Correct score prediction: Atletico Madrid 1-1 Real Madrid
These sides know each other so well, and that was evident in the first leg which was actually quite a tight game, with moments of individual brilliance producing the goals.
With a one-goal advantage, Los Blancos can afford to look to play on the break here, and that may just suit them. Their experience and ability to produce big performances on the European stage should just get them through.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Bookies struggling to call it
- HOME: 6/4 (2.50) – 40.0%
- DRAW: 5/2 (3.50) – 28.6%
- AWAY: 13/8 (2.63) – 38.1%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The hosts are the very slight favourites according to the Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid odds, with an implied probability of 40.0% that they win this match.
They were on the wrong end of a 2-1 scoreline at Getafe in La Liga on Sunday, with Angel Correa’s 88th minute red card the turning point.
As for Real Madrid, they beat Rayo Vallecano 2-1 at the weekend, with Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior on target.
For more from the upcoming matches in Europe, today’s free football betting tips look at some of the best picks.
Most recent H2Hs: Los Blancos dominant in Europe
Our Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction suggests we’ll get goals at each end for the 11th meeting in a row in all competitions.
Goals from Rodrygo and Brahim Diaz sealed a 2-1 win in the first leg for Los Blancos who have won all five previous European Cup or Champions League ties against their city rivals.
UEFA Champions League 04/03/25
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Spain La Liga 08/02/25
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Spain La Liga 29/09/24
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Spain La Liga 04/02/24
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Spain Copa del Rey 18/01/24
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Atletico Madrid preview: Hosts sweating over Lenglet’s fitness
Clement Lenglet is an injury concern for Atleti heading into this one. Koke is their only definite absentee.
Predicted Lineup: Oblak (GK), Galan, Le Normand, Gimenez, Llorente, Lino, Barrios, De Paul, Simeone, Griezmann & Alvarez
Spain La Liga 14/04/25 W Valladolid 2 Atletico Madrid 4 Spain La Liga 06/04/25 W Sevilla 1 Atletico Madrid 2 Spain Copa del Rey 02/04/25 L Barcelona 1 Atletico Madrid 0 Spain La Liga 29/03/25 D Espanyol 1 Atletico Madrid 1 Spain La Liga 16/03/25 L Barcelona 4 Atletico Madrid 2
Real Madrid preview: Bellingham returns for the second leg
The visitors have Jude Bellingham available again following a ban that ruled him out of the first leg. They are missing Dani Carvajal, Dani Ceballos and Eder Militao to injuries.
Predicted Lineup: Courtois (GK), Mendy, Asencio, Rudiger, Valverde, Bellingham, Camavinga, Tchouameni, Rodrygo, Vinicius & Mbappe
Spain La Liga 13/04/25 W CD Alaves 0 Real Madrid 1 UEFA Champions League 08/04/25 L Arsenal 3 Real Madrid 0 Spain La Liga 05/04/25 L Valencia 2 Real Madrid 1 Spain Copa del Rey 01/04/25 D Real Sociedad 4 Real Madrid 4 Spain La Liga 29/03/25 W Leganes 2 Real Madrid 3
Player to watch – Julian Alvarez
Already a key player for Atleti, Julian Alvarez has chipped in with some vital contributions on the Champions League stage. His stunning strike in the first leg was his seventh goal in nine appearances in the competition this term.
Alvarez striking at the death
The Argentina international is now on 22 goals in all competitions this term. 27% of his goals have come after the 75th minute, including his 90th minute winner against Bayer Leverkusen in the league phase of the Champions League.