The UEFA Europa League returns with an exciting clash as Qarabag FK hosts Ajax at the Tofiq Bakhramov Stadium in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Thursday. This first-ever competitive meeting between the two sides promises to be an intriguing encounter, and we’ve got our tips outlined below.
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Qarabag vs Ajax prediction: Ajax primed for three points
Key stats
- Ajax have won 4 of their last 5 matches across all competitions
- Qarabag FK have lost both of their opening Europa League matches
- Qarabag FK have conceded 5 goals while scoring 1 in their opening two games
- Ajax have scored 14 goals in their last five matches
Correct score prediction: Qarabag 1-3 Ajax
Ajax's recent form and attacking skills suggest they could dominate this encounter. The Dutch side has been prolific in front of goal, scoring 14 times in their last five matches. While Qarabag FK have shown they can be a threat going forward, their defensive vulnerabilities were clear in their 3-0 defeat to Tottenham. Given these factors, a 3-1 victory for Ajax seems a likely outcome.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Ajax red hot favourites
- HOME: 21/10 (3.10) – 32.30%
- DRAW: 5/2 (3.50) – 28.60%
- AWAY: 5/4 (2.25) – 44.40%
Ajax might be the away team here, but the bookies favour them to win with a 44.40% probability. As for the hosts, the odds aren’t quite as long as we expected, indicating a 32.30% chance of victory for Qarabag.
Visit our football betting tips page for more previews and predictions this week.
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Most recent H2Hs: First meeting coming up
As this is the first competitive meeting between Qarabag FK and Ajax, there is no head-to-head history to analyse. This lack of previous encounters adds an element of unpredictability to the match. However, as confirmed by the statistics we’ve focused on, Ajax are expected to take a 1-0 H2H lead over Qarabag following Thursday’s encounter.
Qarabag preview: Two losses from two games
Qarabag FK enter this fixture with mixed recent form across the board, having won three and lost two of their last five matches. But in the Europa League, they’ve lost both games played. Their 3-0 defeat to Tottenham and 2-1 loss to Malmo both highlighted defensive frailties that Ajax may look to exploit, too.
Predicted Lineup: Buntic (GK); Huseynov, Mustafazada, Medina, Jafarguliyev; Rodrigues Romao, Patrick, Andrade, Benzia; Zoubir, Juninho
UEFA Europa League 30/01/25
L
Olympiakos
3
FK Qarabag
0
Azerbaijan Premier League 26/01/25
L
PFK Turan Tovuz
2
FK Qarabag
1
UEFA Europa League 23/01/25
L
FCSB
3
FK Qarabag
2
Azerbaijan Premier League 17/01/25
W
Shamakhi FK
2
FK Qarabag
3
Azerbaijan Premier League 22/12/24
W
Araz FK
0
FK Qarabag
2
Ajax preview: 6th place with 5 goals in 2 games
Ajax come into this match in excellent form, unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions. Their recent 4-3 victory over Heracles demonstrated both their attacking prowess and potential defensive vulnerabilities. Yet, the Dutch side will no doubt capitalise on their European experience to secure a crucial away win here.
Predicted Lineup: Pasveer (GK); Rensch, Sutalo, Baas, Hato; Klaassen, Henderson, Taylor, Traore; Brobbey, Godts
Netherlands Eredivisie 11/05/25
L
NEC
3
Ajax
0
Netherlands Eredivisie 27/04/25
D
Sparta Rotterdam
1
Ajax
1
Netherlands Eredivisie 20/04/25
L
FC Utrecht
4
Ajax
0
Netherlands Eredivisie 13/04/25
W
Willem II
1
Ajax
2
Netherlands Eredivisie 06/04/25
W
NAC
1
Ajax
3
Player to watch – Mika Godts (Ajax)
Young talent, Mika Godts, has been making waves for Ajax recently, showcasing his goal-scoring ability and creative flair. With Ajax's attacking style of play, Godts could be the key to unlocking Qarabag FK's defence and providing the spark needed for a crucial away victory in the Europa League.
Let’s not forget that he scored 2 in Ajax’s opening victory over Besiktas either!