Qarabag FK are on the verge of qualifying for the Champions League after beating Hungarian side Ferencvaros 3-1 in the first leg of their fourth and final qualifying tie, but they must navigate the second leg against the visitors at Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium on Wednesday.
The Azerbaijanian victors trailed 1-0 in the first leg on August 19, but they responded well in the second half, scoring three times in the final 45 minutes and are now just 90 minutes from a place amongst Europe's elite.
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Qarabag FK vs Ferencvaros prediction: Resilient hosts vs leaky visitors
Key stats
- Qarabag FK have played six games this season and have kept three clean sheets, with all three coming in their five European qualifying matches this term.
- Ferencvaros have conceded five goals in their past two games, and have conceded at least once in six of their nine matches in 2025-26.
- To their credit, the visitors have won two of their past four fixtures by two or more goals, games that included a 3-0 triumph against Ludogorets in the second leg of their third round Champions League qualifying tie on August 12.
Correct score prediction: Qarabag FK 1-1 Ferencvaros (Qarabag FK win 4-2 on aggregate)
While it would not be surprising if Ferencvaros found the back of the net due to the fact they are in strong form in the final third in the Champions League qualifiers, a single goal conceded on Wednesday could be devastating for their chances of mounting a comeback.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Qarabag FK predicted to win by the bookmakers
- HOME: 5/4 (2.25) – 44.4%
- DRAW: 5/2 (3.5) – 28.6%
- AWAY: 19/10 (2.9) – 34.5%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Qarabag FK are the expected winner of this clash, with a probability of 44.4%, though the bookmakers are not certain that they will emerge as clear winners on the night considering they have given Ferencvaros a 34.5% chance of victory.
You can find all our predictions for today's games on our football betting tips page.
Most recent H2Hs: Qarabag unbeaten against Ferencvaros
Qarabag have faced Ferencvaros four times in their history, and they are undefeated in those encounters, winning on two occasions.
The hosts have scored nine goals in their past three meetings with the visitors, while Ferencvaros netted five times in that period.
UEFA Champions League Qualifying 19/08/25
Ferencvarosi TC
FK Qarabag
Europe Friendlies 27/06/23
Ferencvarosi TC
FK Qarabag
UEFA Champions League Qualifying 09/08/22
Ferencvarosi TC
FK Qarabag
UEFA Champions League Qualifying 03/08/22
FK Qarabag
Ferencvarosi TC
Qarabag FK preview: First loss of the season
Qarabag have played six games in 2025-26, and they experienced their first loss of their season on August 22 when they were beaten 1-0 by Sumqayit, but they achieved victories in their prior five outings.
There were some concerns about striker Nariman Akhundzade, who was subbed off in the first leg due to injury, but he was allocated a spot on the bench against Sumqayit and should be fit to start on Wednesday.
Predicted lineup: Kochalski (GK), Silva, Mustafazada, Medina, Cafarquliyev, Bicalho, Jankovic, Andrade, Borges, Zoubir & Akhundzade
UEFA Europa League 30/01/25
L
Olympiakos
3
FK Qarabag
0
Azerbaijan Premier League 26/01/25
L
PFK Turan Tovuz
2
FK Qarabag
1
UEFA Europa League 23/01/25
L
FCSB
3
FK Qarabag
2
Azerbaijan Premier League 17/01/25
W
Shamakhi FK
2
FK Qarabag
3
Azerbaijan Premier League 22/12/24
W
Araz FK
0
FK Qarabag
2
Ferencvaros preview: Out of form ahead of showdown
Ferencvaros head to Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium on the back of two consecutive defeats – scoring two and conceding five – but they did manage to win five of their prior seven competitive fixtures while settling for stalemates two times.
Attacker Barnabas Varga will be key to the visitors' hopes of a comeback, and he may be paired in the forward line by Lenny Joseph.
Predicted lineup: Dibusz (GK), Gartenmann, Raemaekers, Szalai, Makreckis, Toth, Otvos, Kanichowsky, O'Dowda, Varga & Joseph
UEFA Europa League 20/02/25
L
Viktoria Plzen
3
Ferencvarosi TC
0
UEFA Europa League 13/02/25
W
Viktoria Plzen
0
Ferencvarosi TC
1
Hungary NB I 05/02/25
D
Zalaegerszegi TE
2
Ferencvarosi TC
2
UEFA Europa League 30/01/25
W
AZ
3
Ferencvarosi TC
4
UEFA Europa League 23/01/25
L
Eintracht Frankfurt
2
Ferencvarosi TC
0
Player to watch: Kevin Medina
Qarabag do not need to play an offensive brand of football on Wednesday, and since they will almost certainly defend for large periods, centre-back Kevin Medina could be key.
The defender scored in the first leg against Ferencvaros, and he also won 12 of his 18 duels, including nine of his 12 ground duels in that match.