PSG vs Dortmund prediction, odds & betting tips – 07/05/2024

07/05/24 - 20:00

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PSG - Borussia Dortmund

UEFA Champions League - Parc des Princes

2nd Round

It's time for our Champions League predictions ahead of Tuesday's second leg in Paris between PSG and Dortmund.

The German visitors hold a narrow 1-0 lead following the first leg last week but the home side still head into this semi-final decider as the bookmaker's favourite to progress through to the final.

PSG vs Dortmund predictions: Can Dortmund defy the odds?

Key Stats

• Both teams have scored in five of PSG's and five of Dortmund's last six outings across all competitions and we're backing both teams to find the back of the net on Tuesday night.
• PSG have scored three or more goals in four of their last five outings and Dortmund have managed to score in each of their last six matches, which is why we have selected a 3-1 final scoreline in favour of the hosts.
• Five of the home side's last six matches have produced at least five goals, while four of Dortmund's last six have featured over 2.5 goals, so you can see why we're backing at least three goals to be scored on Tuesday night.

Pre-game odds and win probability: PSG backed by the bookmakers

• HOME: 8/15 (1.53) – 65.2%
• DRAW: 19/5 (4.80) – 20.8%
• AWAY: 6/1 (7.00) – 14.3%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

PSG are the expected winners of this game with a probability of 65.2%, and we tend to agree with the bookmakers on this selection.

The hosts haven't played since losing 1-0 in Dortmund last week, while the visitors thrashed Augsburg 5-1 at the weekend so might show signs of tired legs during the latter stages of Tuesday's semi-final.

For more football betting tips on the game, check out the Anytime Goalscorer market. PSG's Kylian Mbappe is the favourite to score in the second leg at 4/6 (1.67) which has a probability of 60%, but if you want to go for a Dortmund goalscorer Niclas Fullkrug is priced at 7/2 (4.50) with a probability of 22.2%.

Last five H2Hs: Level pegging

UEFA Champions League 01/05/24

Borussia Dortmund

1

PSG

0

UEFA Champions League 13/12/23

Borussia Dortmund

1

PSG

1

UEFA Champions League 19/09/23

PSG

2

Borussia Dortmund

0

UEFA Champions League 11/03/20

PSG

2

Borussia Dortmund

0

UEFA Champions League 18/02/20

Borussia Dortmund

2

PSG

1

PSG have picked up two wins, three draws and two defeats from their previous seven meetings with Dortmund.

Team news and form guide

PSG: Won last two home games against Dortmund

Lucas Hernandez, Layvin Kurzawa, Sergio Rico and Presnel Kimpembe make up the list of four players that look set to miss out on Tuesday night's big game through injury.

Predicted lineup: Donnarumma (GK), Marquinhos, Beraldo, Hakimi, Mendes, Ruiz, Vitinha, Zaïre-Emery, Dembélé, Mbappé & Kolo Muani

UEFA Champions League 11/02/25

W

Brest

0

PSG

3

France Ligue 1 07/02/25

W

Monaco

1

PSG

4

France Cup 04/02/25

W

Le Mans

0

PSG

2

France Ligue 1 01/02/25

W

Brest

2

PSG

5

UEFA Champions League 29/01/25

W

VfB Stuttgart

1

PSG

4

Dortmund: Lost last away game heavily

The visitors will be without the services of Sebastien Haller, Julien Duranville and Ramy Bensebaini for the trip to Paris this week due to injury.

Predicted lineup: Kobel (GK), Hummels, Ryerson, Schlotterbeck, Maatsen, Sabitzer, Can, Brandt, Füllkrug, Sancho & Adeyemi 

UEFA Champions League 11/02/25

W

Sporting

0

Borussia Dortmund

3

Germany Bundesliga I 08/02/25

L

VfB Stuttgart

2

Borussia Dortmund

1

Germany Bundesliga I 01/02/25

W

Heidenheim

1

Borussia Dortmund

2

UEFA Champions League 29/01/25

W

Shakhtar Donetsk

1

Borussia Dortmund

3

Germany Bundesliga I 25/01/25

D

Werder Bremen

2

Borussia Dortmund

2

Player to watch – Kylian Mbappe

PSG are going to need a big performance from their star man this week if they are to make it through to the Champions League final this season.

Mbappe has scored eight times this season in the Champions League but drew a blank in the first leg against Dortmund last week but bigger things are expected of the Frenchman in his own backyard this week.

Will PSG's main man step up when he is most needed?

The 25-year-old has enjoyed another fruitful campaign in front of goal netting 26 times in 28 Ligue 1 appearances so far and while his longterm future might be set away from Paris, the former Monaco man will want to leave on the best of terms possible and winning the Champions League is as good as it gets for the owners of PSG.

The latest Tweets from each camp

PSG

Semi-final day in the Champions League at the Parc des Princes! ??#PSGBVB I #UCL ✨

pic.twitter.com/6c76SDlN9E

— Paris Saint-Germain (@PSG_English) May 7, 2024

Borussia Dortmund

Halfway there. pic.twitter.com/OHGFmTbq0N

— Borussia Dortmund (@BlackYellow) May 6, 2024