PSG vs Dortmund prediction, odds & betting tips – 07/05/2024

PSG
07/05/24 - 20:00

Finished

0

-

1

Borussia Dortmund

PSG - Borussia Dortmund

UEFA Champions League - Parc des Princes

2nd Round

PSG vs Dortmund prediction
Ousmane Dembele of PSG has a cross blocked by Dortmund's Ian Maatsen – Photo by Icon Sport

It's time for our Champions League predictions ahead of Tuesday's second leg in Paris between PSG and Dortmund.

The German visitors hold a narrow 1-0 lead following the first leg last week but the home side still head into this semi-final decider as the bookmaker's favourite to progress through to the final.

PSG vs Dortmund predictions: Can Dortmund defy the odds?

PSG vs Dortmund Predictions
Our pick

🔥 Hot Tip

BTTS

⚽ Correct Score prediction

PSG 3-1 Dortmund

⬆️ Over 2.5 Goals prediction

Yes

Key Stats

  • Both teams have scored in five of PSG's and five of Dortmund's last six outings across all competitions and we're backing both teams to find the back of the net on Tuesday night.
  • PSG have scored three or more goals in four of their last five outings and Dortmund have managed to score in each of their last six matches, which is why we have selected a 3-1 final scoreline in favour of the hosts.
  • Five of the home side's last six matches have produced at least five goals, while four of Dortmund's last six have featured over 2.5 goals, so you can see why we're backing at least three goals to be scored on Tuesday night.

Pre-game odds and win probability: PSG backed by the bookmakers

  • HOME: 8/15 (1.53) – 65.2%
  • DRAW: 19/5 (4.80) – 20.8%
  • AWAY: 6/1 (7.00) – 14.3%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

PSG are the expected winners of this game with a probability of 65.2%, and we tend to agree with the bookmakers on this selection.

The hosts haven't played since losing 1-0 in Dortmund last week, while the visitors thrashed Augsburg 5-1 at the weekend so might show signs of tired legs during the latter stages of Tuesday's semi-final.

For more football betting tips on the game, check out the Anytime Goalscorer market. PSG's Kylian Mbappe is the favourite to score in the second leg at 4/6 (1.67) which has a probability of 60%, but if you want to go for a Dortmund goalscorer Niclas Fullkrug is priced at 7/2 (4.50) with a probability of 22.2%.

Last five H2Hs: Level pegging

UEFA Champions League 01/05/24

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

1
PSG

PSG

0

UEFA Champions League 13/12/23

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

1
PSG

PSG

1

UEFA Champions League 19/09/23

PSG

PSG

2
Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

0

UEFA Champions League 11/03/20

PSG

PSG

2
Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

0

UEFA Champions League 18/02/20

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

2
PSG

PSG

1

PSG have picked up two wins, three draws and two defeats from their previous seven meetings with Dortmund.

Team news and form guide

PSG: Won last two home games against Dortmund

Lucas Hernandez, Layvin Kurzawa, Sergio Rico and Presnel Kimpembe make up the list of four players that look set to miss out on Tuesday night's big game through injury.

Predicted lineup: Donnarumma (GK), Marquinhos, Beraldo, Hakimi, Mendes, Ruiz, Vitinha, Zaïre-Emery, Dembélé, Mbappé & Kolo Muani

France Cup 25/05/24

W

Lyon

Lyon

1

PSG

PSG

2

France Ligue 1 19/05/24

W

Metz

Metz

0

PSG

PSG

2

France Ligue 1 15/05/24

W

Nice

Nice

1

PSG

PSG

2

France Ligue 1 12/05/24

L

Toulouse

Toulouse

3

PSG

PSG

1

UEFA Champions League 07/05/24

L

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

1

PSG

PSG

0

Dortmund: Lost last away game heavily

The visitors will be without the services of Sebastien Haller, Julien Duranville and Ramy Bensebaini for the trip to Paris this week due to injury.

Predicted lineup: Kobel (GK), Hummels, Ryerson, Schlotterbeck, Maatsen, Sabitzer, Can, Brandt, Füllkrug, Sancho & Adeyemi 

Elite Club Friendlies 17/07/24

D

Erzgebirge Aue

Erzgebirge Aue

1

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

1

UEFA Champions League 01/06/24

L

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

2

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

0

Germany Bundesliga I 18/05/24

W

Darmstadt

Darmstadt

0

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

4

Germany Bundesliga I 11/05/24

L

Mainz

Mainz

3

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

0

UEFA Champions League 07/05/24

W

PSG

PSG

0

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

1

Player to watch – Kylian Mbappe

PSG are going to need a big performance from their star man this week if they are to make it through to the Champions League final this season.

Kylian Mbappe player to watch
Kylian Mbappe on the ball against Dortmund – Photo by Icon Sport

Mbappe has scored eight times this season in the Champions League but drew a blank in the first leg against Dortmund last week but bigger things are expected of the Frenchman in his own backyard this week.

Will PSG's main man step up when he is most needed?

The 25-year-old has enjoyed another fruitful campaign in front of goal netting 26 times in 28 Ligue 1 appearances so far and while his longterm future might be set away from Paris, the former Monaco man will want to leave on the best of terms possible and winning the Champions League is as good as it gets for the owners of PSG.

The latest Tweets from each camp

PSG

Borussia Dortmund


A lifelong Evertonian, James started writing for an Everton fan site in the mid-2000s and then developed his own blog covering football transfers from across Europe's big leagues before becoming a regular match preview and betting tips writer for Biggest Free Bets. James moved to Free Super Tips next, and then Racing Post, where he worked as a full-time betting tips writer for a few years. Following that, James joined Football Whispers in December 2020 and has been a permanent fixture ever-since, currently covering the Premier League amongst other things