Italy know that a win against Portugal at Stade de Geneve on Monday could be enough to qualify for the quarter-finals of the Women's Euro 2025 Championship.
Portugal are last in fourth place with no points following their 5-0 defeat against Spain on July 3 and will be eliminated if they lose, whereas second-placed Italy emerged as 1-0 victors against Belgium on the same date and occupy one of two qualifying spots for the next round of the tournament.
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Portugal vs Italy Women prediction: Contrasting fortunes
Key Stats
- Portugal face an uphill battle to qualify if their recent form is anything to go by considering they are winless in six games, suffering five defeats and conceding 25 goals.
- Italy have kept seven clean sheets in 12 matches, and they have won three and drawn one of the last four outings, scoring eight and conceding once.
- It should be noted that the Italians have only once in their history won successive Euros matches.
Correct score prediction: Portugal 1-2 Italy
Italy come into the clash in strong form, but they have historically encountered difficulties at the Euros, so perhaps Monday's game will be a nervous affair.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Italy seen as clear favourites
- HOME: 19/5 (4.8) – 20.8%
- DRAW: 14/5 (3.8) – 26.3%
- AWAY: 7/10 (1.7) – 58.8%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Italy are the expected winner of this clash, with a probability of 58.8%, and the bookmakers doubt Portugal's chances of advancing.
You can find all our predictions for today's games on our football betting tips page.
Last five H2Hs: Italy ahead of Portugal
Italy have triumphed in their past six matches against Portugal, the most recent of which was a 2-1 victory in early 2020, but three of those wins were by a one-goal margin.
Algarve Cup 04/03/20
Portugal Women
Italy Women
Women's World Cup Qual 08/06/18
Italy Women
Portugal Women
Women's World Cup Qual 28/11/17
Portugal Women
Italy Women
Portugal preview: Humiliation at the hands of Spain
While few expected Portugal to earn any points against Spain, the fact that they trailed 4-0 by the 41st minute – ultimately losing 5-0 – and that they created no big chances will be concerning to boss Francisco Neto.
Predicted lineup: Pereira (GK), Seica, Costa, F. Pinto, Borges, Jacinto, Norton, T. Pinto, Amado, D. Silva, J. Silva
UEFA Women's Nations League 08/04/25
L
Spain Women
7
Portugal Women
1
UEFA Women's Nations League 04/04/25
L
Spain Women
4
Portugal Women
2
UEFA Women's Nations League 26/02/25
W
Belgium Women
0
Portugal Women
1
UEFA Women's Nations League 21/02/25
D
England Women
1
Portugal Women
1
Womens Euro Championships Qual 03/12/24
W
Czech Republic Women
1
Portugal Women
2
Italy preview: Composed performance against Belgium
Though Italy only managed to win 1-0 against Belgium, the narrow scoreline was not reflective of their dominance given they prevented their opponents from generating any big chances, and also faced just one shot in the entirety of the second 45 minutes.
Striker Cristiana Girelli led the line last time out, and she can be expected to spearhead her side's attack on Monday.
Predicted lineup: Giuliani (GK), Lenzini, Salvai, Linari, Di Guglielmo, Cantore, Giugliano, Severini, Boattin, Caruso, Girelli
UEFA Women's Nations League 08/04/25
W
Denmark Women
0
Italy Women
3
UEFA Women's Nations League 04/04/25
L
Sweden Women
3
Italy Women
2
UEFA Women's Nations League 25/02/25
L
Denmark Women
3
Italy Women
1
UEFA Women's Nations League 21/02/25
W
Wales Women
0
Italy Women
1
Womenu2019s International 02/12/24
W
Germany Women
1
Italy Women
2
Player to watch – Cristiana Girelli
Cristiana Girelli is Italy's third all-time goalscorer, with her tally of 54 goals only behind Carolina Morace (95) and Elisabetta Vignotto (97).
The Italian has scored three times in her last five outings for the national team, though the striker failed to find the back of the net in three of those fixtures.