Portugal and France meet in a Euro 2024 quarter-final in Hamburg on Friday. In a repeat of the 2016 final, our Portugal vs France prediction and Euro betting tips explore whether Les Bleus can enact revenge eight years on.
Contents
- 1 Portugal vs France prediction: Les Bleus to edge low scoring affair
- 2 Last five H2Hs: Tight games the norm
- 3 Portugal preview: Martinez hoping to have full squad available
- 4 France preview: Rabiot serves suspension
- 5 Key duels
- 6 Player to watch – Cristiano Ronaldo
- 7 Winner’s next potential opponents
- 8 The latest Tweets from each camp
Portugal vs France prediction: Les Bleus to edge low scoring affair
Key stats
- Our Portugal vs France betting tips take into account the low-scoring nature of the matches involving Didier Deschamps’ team with their Euro 2024 fixtures averaging just 1.00 goals per game in total.
- Both teams have scored in only one of France’s matches so far and in only one of Portugal’s games at this tournament.
- Excluding penalties, Portugal have only won one of their five knockout matches at major tournaments since winning Euro 2016.
Correct score prediction: Portugal 0-1 France
France should be the fresher team after Portugal went the distance against Slovenia with Cristiano Ronaldo among those to play the full 120 minutes. Les Bleus have been defending well, conceding just once so far at Euro 2024 and they may just nick this.
Pre-game odds and win probability: France favourites to reach the last four
- PORTUGAL: 11/5 (3.20) – 31.3%
- DRAW: 21/10 (3.10) – 32.3%
- FRANCE: 13/10 (2.30) – 43.5%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Les Bleus are the favourites according to the Portugal vs France odds with an implied probability of 43.5% that they win this one.
They left it late in the last round with an own goal from Jan Vertonghen in the 85th minute sealing a 1-0 win over Belgium.
It was an even closer game for Portugal who couldn’t force a breakthrough in 120 minutes against Slovenia, but enjoyed the perfect penalty shootout with Diogo Costa the hero with three saves.
For more of the latest picks from Euro 2024 and beyond, today’s betting tips feature some of the best bets from this week’s action.
Last five H2Hs: Tight games the norm
Our Portugal vs France prediction of a low scoring affair is backed up by recent history with four of the last five meetings producing one or fewer goals. France are unbeaten across those fixtures inside 90 minutes.
Euro 2021 23/06/21
Portugal
France
UEFA Nations League 14/11/20
Portugal
France
UEFA Nations League 11/10/20
France
Portugal
Euro 2016 10/07/16
Portugal
France
International Match 04/09/15
Portugal
France
Portugal preview: Martinez hoping to have full squad available
The Iberians are hoping to have everyone fit and available. Roberto Martinez may consider some light changes given the quick turnaround following Monday’s dramatic win over Slovenia.
Predicted Lineup: Costa (GK), Mendes, Pepe, Diaz, Cancelo, Vitinha, Palhinha, Leao, Fernandes, Silva & Ronaldo
UEFA Nations League A 08/09/24 W Scotland 1 Portugal 2 UEFA Nations League A 05/09/24 W Croatia 1 Portugal 2 Euro 2024 05/07/24 L France 0 (5) Portugal 0 (3) Euro 2024 01/07/24 W Slovenia 0 (0) Portugal 0 (3) Euro 2024 26/06/24 L Georgia 2 Portugal 0
France preview: Rabiot serves suspension
There’ll be one enforced change for France with Adrien Rabiot suspended. There are different ways Didier Deschamps could compensate for that, but one option would be to revert to a 4-2-3-1 with Antoine Griezmann playing centrally with Ousmane Dembele potentially recalled out wide.
Predicted Lineup: Maignan (GK), Theo Hernandez, Upamecano, Saliba, Kounde, Kante, Tchouameni, Griezmann, Thuram, Mbappe & Dembele
UEFA Nations League A 09/09/24 W Belgium 0 France 2 UEFA Nations League A 06/09/24 L Italy 3 France 1 Euro 2024 09/07/24 L Spain 2 France 1 Euro 2024 05/07/24 W Portugal 0 (3) France 0 (5) Euro 2024 01/07/24 W Belgium 0 France 1
Key duels
Pepe vs Kylian Mbappe
Facing the electric Kylian Mbappe is going to be a huge challenge for 41 year old Pepe who made a big error in Extra Time against Slovenia that could have cost his side the game. Mbappe hasn’t been at his best at Euro 2024 though, averaging 5.0 shots per game, but only scoring once.
Bruno Fernandes vs N'Golo Kante
N'Golo Kante has returned to anchor the French midfield at Euro 2024, averaging 2.3 tackles and 0.8 interceptions per game so far. He’ll be tasked with keeping Bruno Fernandes quiet here with the Manchester United man averaging 2.0 key passes and 2.3 shots per game in Germany.
Rafael Leao vs Jules Kounde
One of the stars for France against Belgium was Jules Kounde who was widely considered the best player on the night. He’s likely to be up against the lively Rafael Leao here. The Portugal winger is yet to score or assist at Euro 2024 but does average 1.7 dribbles per game.
Player to watch – Cristiano Ronaldo
All eyes will be on Cristiano Ronaldo again after the 39 year old was reduced to tears after he missed his penalty against Slovenia, only to regain his composure to convert in the shootout. In what could be his last ever Euros match, Ronaldo will be desperate to score his first goal at the 2024 edition.
Ronaldo badly misfiring
Excluding the shootout, Ronaldo is yet to score from any of his 20 shots at Euro 2024. No player in the tournament has had more attempts on goal.
Winner’s next potential opponents
France or Portugal have struggled to get to this stage, but they should still not be underestimated when it comes to their chances of going all the way. Whoever wins this match will then have to go through either Spain or Germany though, two main favourites based on performances so far.
Portugal will gladly avoid Spain if possible since they have a bad H2H record against them: 6-17-17. That being said, their record against Germany isn't really much better, with Portugal only winning three games against them so far, along with five draws and 11 losses.
Meanwhile, France have a winning record against Germany with 15 wins, eight draws, and 11 losses. However, they have struggled with Spain in the past since they've lost 16 times to them, along with seven draws and 13 wins.
In any case, if France or Portugal can reach the final, they are bound to play England, Netherlands, Turkey, or Switzerland.
The latest Tweets from each camp
Portugal
Hamburgo em modo português 👕🇵🇹#PartilhaAPaixão | #EURO2024 pic.twitter.com/ONfgnJNb6x
— Portugal (@selecaoportugal) July 5, 2024
France
The final training session for Les Bleus before their #Euro2024 quarter-final against Portugal! 😤#FiersdetreBleus
— French Team ⭐⭐ (@FrenchTeam) July 5, 2024
