Paraguay are set to take on Uruguay in FIFA World Cup qualifying in the early hours of Friday morning, with both teams locked together on 21 points in the qualification table.
With just four games left to play in qualifying, victory for either side on Friday would almost certainly guarantee safe passage through to the 2026 World Cup.
As things stand, both nations hold a six-point advantage over Venezuela in seventh position (an inter-confederation play-offs) and a seven-point advantage over Bolivia in eighth.
As part of this week's round of World Cup qualifying tips, check out our Paraguay vs Uruguay prediction below.
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Paraguay vs Uruguay prediction: Tight and tense 90 minutes expected
Key Stats
- Each of the last four matches between Paraguay and Uruguay have produced fewer than three goals.
- Ten of Paraguay's 14 World Cup qualifying matches this campaign have produced fewer than three goals.
- Paraguay are unbeaten in their last eight matches.
- Uruguay have won just one of their last nine matches.
Correct score prediction: Paraguay 1-0 Uruguay
All signs point towards a low-scoring match this week, and a repeat of the 0-0 draw in the reverse fixture earlier in the campaign is definitely on the cards. The main reason we're leaning towards a narrow in for Paraguay is due to their brilliant recent form in qualifying. They have won their last four qualification matches on home soil – all by a single goal.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Paraguay are the narrow favourites
- HOME: 29/20 (2.45) – 40.8%
- DRAW: 19/10 (2.90) – 34.5%
- AWAY: 21/10 (3.10) – 32.3%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The Paraguay vs Uruguay odds are narrowly in favour of the home team, which aligns with how we see this match going. Ladbrokes have given Paraguay a 40.8% chance of winning the match on Friday, while Uruguay have been given a 32.3% chance of picking up all three points.
You can find all our predictions for today's games on our football betting tips page.
Most recent H2Hs: Uruguay dominate
Uruguay haven't lost any of their last 11 games against Paraguay, and have won two of the last three meetings via a 1-0 scoreline. Paraguay's last win over Uruguay came all the way back in October 2007, when they ran out as 1-0 winners in a World Cup qualifier.
South America - World Cup Qualifying 07/09/24
Uruguay
Paraguay
South America - World Cup Qualifying 27/01/22
Paraguay
Uruguay
Copa America 29/06/21
Uruguay
Paraguay
South America - World Cup Qualifying 03/06/21
Uruguay
Paraguay
South America - World Cup Qualifying 06/09/17
Paraguay
Uruguay
Paraguay preview: Two changes from the last break
Paraguay manager Gustavo Alfaro is keeping things as consistent as possible, making just two changes from his last squad, with Alex Arce and Saul Salcedo both dropping out. A similar starting XI to the one that beat Chile in their last home qualifier is anticipated, with Mathias Villasanti set for his 50th cap.
Predicted lineup: Fernandez (GK), Caceres, Balbuena, Alderete, Alonso, Gomez, Galarza, Cubas, Almiron, Pitta, Enciso
South America - World Cup Qualifying 26/03/25
D
Colombia
2
Paraguay
2
South America - World Cup Qualifying 20/03/25
W
Chile
0
Paraguay
1
South America - World Cup Qualifying 19/11/24
D
Bolivia
2
Paraguay
2
South America - World Cup Qualifying 14/11/24
W
Argentina
1
Paraguay
2
South America - World Cup Qualifying 15/10/24
W
Venezuela
1
Paraguay
2
Uruguay preview: Star name pulls out
Marcelo Bielsa may be slightly disappointed that one of his best players, Federico Valverde, has opted to pull out of the squad to focus on the upcoming Club World Cup when he could really have done with him at the heart of his midfield. Manuel Ugarte should be fine to play, despite participating in Man Utd's controversial post-season tour of Asia.
Predicted lineup: Rochet (GK), Nandez, Araujo, Gimenez, Olivera, Bentancur, De la Cruz, Ugarte, Pellistri, Nunez, Araujo
South America - World Cup Qualifying 25/03/25
D
Bolivia
0
Uruguay
0
South America - World Cup Qualifying 21/03/25
L
Argentina
1
Uruguay
0
South America - World Cup Qualifying 20/11/24
D
Brazil
1
Uruguay
1
South America - World Cup Qualifying 16/11/24
W
Colombia
2
Uruguay
3
South America - World Cup Qualifying 15/10/24
D
Ecuador
0
Uruguay
0
Player to watch: Darwin Nunez
With Luis Suarez and Edison Cavani both in the past now for Uruguay, Darwin Nunez is the main man at the top of the pitch for Marcelo Bielsa's side. Unfortunately for the Liverpool man, his poor club has spilled over to the international scene in the most recent international breaks, which has led to calls for him to depart Anfield this summer. Can he produce the goods against Paraguay to attract potential suitors?
