Uruguay sit second in the South American World Cup qualifiers table on 13 points and have scored more goals than any other team so far.
Visitors Paraguay have only managed to pick up five points from their opening six qualifiers and sit four from bottom but have only conceded three goals.
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Uruguay vs Paraguay prediction: Tight and tense 90 minutes expected
Key Stats
- Four of Uruguay's last five matches have produced under 2.5 goals.
- Paraguay have failed to score in five of their six qualifiers.
- Uruguay are unbeaten in their last ten games against Paraguay, picking up six wins.
- Paraguay have lost four of their last six outings in all competitions.
Correct score prediction: Uruguay 1-0 Paraguay
The only reason we're backing such a small winning margin for the hosts is the fact that they will be without their top scorer in qualifying, Darwin Nunez, who has scored five times. Paraguay have also only conceded three goals in their opening six matches and have failed to score in five of those so a 1-0 scoreline seems logical.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Uruguay the clear favourite
- HOME: 6/11 (1.55) – 64.7%
- DRAW: 41/13 (4.15) – 24.1%
- AWAY: 11/2 (6.50) – 15.4%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Uruguay are the expected winner of this game with a probability of 64.7%, and we won't disagree with the bookmakers on this prediction.
You can find all our predictions for today's games on our football betting tips page.
Most recent H2Hs: Uruguay dominate
Uruguay haven't lost any of their last ten games against Paraguay, winning the last two meetings via a 1-0 scoreline.
South America - World Cup Qualifying 27/01/22
Paraguay
Uruguay
Copa America 29/06/21
Uruguay
Paraguay
South America - World Cup Qualifying 03/06/21
Uruguay
Paraguay
South America - World Cup Qualifying 06/09/17
Paraguay
Uruguay
South America - World Cup Qualifying 07/09/16
Uruguay
Paraguay
Uruguay preview: Performing well under Bielsa
Uruguay finished third at the recent Copa America thanks to a penalty shootout victory over Canada.
Marco Bielsa has this Uruguay side playing some great football and winning a lot of games and only Argentina sit above his side in the World Cup qualifying table.
There is no Darwin Nunez for the hosts this week which adds more pressure onto the shoulders of Luis Suarez to score the goals in the Liverpool forward's absence.
Predicted lineup: Rochet (GK), Bueno, Varela, Caceres, Nandez, Martinez, Valverde, Ugarte, Araujo, Pellistri & Suarez
South America - World Cup Qualifying 10/09/24
D
Venezuela
0
Uruguay
0
South America - World Cup Qualifying 06/09/24
D
Paraguay
0
Uruguay
0
International Match 01/09/24
D
Guatemala
1
Uruguay
1
Copa America 14/07/24
W
Canada
2 (3)
Uruguay
2 (4)
Copa America 11/07/24
L
Colombia
1
Uruguay
0
Paraguay preview: Lost all three games at the Copa America
Paraguay have really struggled so far in the World Cup qualifiers with scoring goals being the biggest issue.
Defensively, Gustavo Alfaro's side have been decent, only conceding three goals in six matches, but their one and only goal arrived during a 1-0 win over Bolivia back in October.
Newcastle's Miguel Almiron is probably the best player in the Paraguay squad and the midfielder provides one of his team's few goal threats having scored seven times in 58 caps so far.
Predicted lineup: Morinigo (GK), Balbuena, Velazquez, Alderete, Gimenez, Almiron, Villasanti, Enciso, Bobadilla, Bareiro & Sosa
South America - World Cup Qualifying 11/09/24
W
Brazil
0
Paraguay
1
South America - World Cup Qualifying 06/09/24
D
Uruguay
0
Paraguay
0
Copa America 03/07/24
L
Costa Rica
2
Paraguay
1
Copa America 29/06/24
L
Brazil
4
Paraguay
1
Copa America 24/06/24
L
Colombia
2
Paraguay
1
Player to watch: Luis Suarez
Luis Suarez has been in fantastic form for Inter Miami this season, netting 16 goals in 20 MLS appearances but has only scored one goal for his country since 2023.
The 37-year-old captain of Uruguay hasn't been a starter under Marco Bielsa due to the pressing style the manager uses which demands high fitness levels that Suarez simply can't give now that he is in the later stages of his career and maybe that is why the veteran forward has announced that he will retire from international football after the Paraguay game.
Uruguay might need some vintage Suarez in his final appearance for his country
However, with top scorer Darwin Nunez unavailable for selection this weekend, we're backing Suarez to provide the main goal threat for Bielsa's side even if that involves the Inter Maimi man coming off the bench with half an hour to go against a Paraguay side with a strong defensive record.
