Next Friday, Estadio Ueno Defensores del Chaco will host a crucial FIFA World Cup Qualifier as Paraguay take on Ecuador. The Red and White are coming off a narrow 1-0 defeat to Brazil in their last game, while the Tricolour secured a goalless draw against Peru.
The game promises to be a tense affair, with both teams eager to gain a foothold in their World Cup qualifying campaign. Paraguay's home advantage and Ecuador's resolute defence will likely be the key factors, making for a tight encounter.
Read our Paraguay vs Ecuador predictions and preview to find out, but remember to also check our other South America World Cup qualifiers predictions.
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Paraguay vs Ecuador prediction: Paraguay are slight favourite
Key statistics
- Paraguay have defeated Ecuador four times in their last five encounters.
- A 2-1 scoreline has been played in two of their last three meetings.
- They have played BTTS in four of their last five clashes.
Correct score prediction: Paraguay 2-1 Ecuador
This match between Paraguay and Ecuador looks like it will be a tight game, but we are tipping the Red and White to come out with a narrow 2-1 win.
Both teams have strong defensive records, especially when they face each other. Paraguay have proven to be very difficult to beat at home, giving them an edge in this fixture.
On the other hand, the Tricolour’s recent run of three straight draws shows they are often satisfied with grinding out results away from home. Given the balance of past meetings, this clash is likely to be competitive, but I expect Paraguay’s home strength to make the difference.
Pre-match odds and win probability: Bookmakers give close odds
- Home: 11/8 (2.38) – 42.11%
- Draw: 2/1 (3.00) – 33.33%
- Away: 11/5 (3.20) – 31.25%
*Odds provided by Ladbrokes. Subject to change.*
When looking at the odds, this match is expected to be very close. In simple terms, 2.38 (42.11%) for Paraguay means they are seen as slight favourites, largely because of their strong home record.
3.00 (33.33%) for the draw shows there is a fair chance that both sides could cancel each other out. Meanwhile, 3.20 (31.25%) for Ecuador suggests they are not far behind Paraguay, making this a very competitive and evenly balanced contest where any of the three results is possible.
Most recent head-to-head: Paraguay has dominated home encounter
Following their head-to-head history, this fixture has often been competitive, but Gustavo Alfaro’s side usually performs better when playing at home.
In their last five home matches against Sebastian Beccacece’s team across all competitions, Paraguay has won four times and drawn once. This record shows how strong and confident they tend to be in front of their home supporters, giving them an extra edge going into this match.
South America - World Cup Qualifying 10/10/24
Ecuador
Paraguay
South America - World Cup Qualifying 24/03/22
Paraguay
Ecuador
South America - World Cup Qualifying 02/09/21
Ecuador
Paraguay
South America - World Cup Qualifying 23/03/17
Paraguay
Ecuador
South America - World Cup Qualifying 24/03/16
Ecuador
Paraguay
After reviewing our key Paraguay vs Ecuador predictions, be sure to visit our website for the remaining football betting tips today.
Paraguay preview: Injury-hit squad
Alfaro will have to deal with several injury concerns going into this match, which could affect their squad depth. Fabian Balbuena is sidelined with a broken ankle and is not expected back until early December.
Isidro Pitta, Ronaldo Dejesus, and Gustavo Velazquez are all dealing with shorter-term issues, but doubts persist for early September. Julio Enciso will miss time until mid-October with a meniscus injury, while Mathias Villasanti faces the toughest setback, being ruled out for the rest of the season with a cruciate ligament injury.
Predicted lineup: Fernandez (GK), Gomez G., Alonso, Caceres, Alderete, Bobadilla, Kaku, Cubas, Gomez D., Sanabria & Almiron
- 11.06.25 – Brazil 1 – 0 Paraguay
- 06.06.25 – Paraguay 2 – 0 Uruguay
- 26.03.25 – Colombia 2 – 2 Paraguay
- 21.03.25 – Paraguay 1 – 0 Chile
- 19.11.24 – Bolivia 2 – 2 Paraguay
Ecuador preview: Clean bill of health
Good news for Beccacece ahead of this match, as the team has a clean bill of health. This means there are no major injuries or suspensions to worry about, allowing the coach to choose from a full squad. Having all players fit and available gives Ecuador more flexibility in their tactics and lineup, which could prove crucial in such a crucial game.
Predicted lineup: Valle (GK), Estupinan, Ordonez, Hincapie, Pacho, Caicedo, Vite, Yeboah, Franco, Angulo & Rodriguez
- 11.06.25 – Peru 0 – 0 Ecuador
- 06.06.25 – Ecuador 0 – 0 Brazil
- 26.03.25 – Chile 0 – 0 Ecuador
- 21.03.25 – Ecuador 2 – 1 Venezuela
- 20.11.24 – Colombia 0 – 1 Ecuador
Player to watch: Miguel Almiron
Following the team's injury hit squad, one player who could make a big difference for Paraguay in this match is Miguel Almiron. The winger has been an important part of the team’s attack recently, contributing both a goal and an assist in his last five games for club and country.
His pace, creativity, and eye for goal make him a constant danger to defenders, and his ability to both score and set up chances will be key if Paraguay are to break down Ecuador’s back line.