There’s a 2026 World Cup qualifier in El Alto this week. Our Bolivia vs Paraguay prediction considers whether the hosts can pick up their fifth victory of this campaign.
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Bolivia vs Paraguay prediction: Hosts to claim narrow home win
Key stats
- Our Bolivia vs Paraguay betting tips take into account that the home team have won their last three World Cup qualifiers in front of their own fans to nil.
- Both teams have scored in only one of Bolivia’s last eight matches.
- Paraguay are yet to score an away goal in 2026 World Cup qualifying.
Correct score prediction: Bolivia 1-0 Paraguay
Home advantage is everything for Bolivia, with this game being played 4150 metres above sea level, a factor that is making it very difficult for visiting teams.
They’ve beaten Colombia, Venezuela and Peru to nil already at home in this campaign, and given Paraguay are yet to net on their travels in 2026 World Cup qualifying, a home win looks likely again here.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Bolivia the clear favourites
- HOME: 13/20 (1.65) – 60.6%
- DRAW: 27/10 (3.70) – 27.0%
- AWAY: 9/2 (5.50) – 18.2%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The hosts are the favourites according to the Bolivia vs Paraguay odds with an implied probability of 60.6% that they win this match.
They head into it, on the back of a 4-0 defeat in Ecuador, with Jose Sagredo’s early red card not helping matters.
As for Paraguay, they stunned Argentina 2-1 last week, with Toni Sanabria and Omar Alderete on target.
For more from the upcoming matches in South America and beyond, today’s football betting tips look at some of the best picks.
Most recent H2Hs: Home advantage decisive
Our Bolivia vs Paraguay prediction suggests the hosts can build on a strong record of six victories and only one defeat in their previous 10 home World Cup qualifiers against Paraguay.
That’s in complete contrast to a return of just one point from 11 trips to Paraguay, the most recent of which was a 1-0 defeat in October 2023.
South America - World Cup Qualifying 17/10/23
Paraguay
Bolivia
South America - World Cup Qualifying 14/10/21
Bolivia
Paraguay
Copa America 15/06/21
Paraguay
Bolivia
South America - World Cup Qualifying 17/11/20
Paraguay
Bolivia
South America - World Cup Qualifying 15/11/16
Bolivia
Paraguay
Bolivia preview: Sagredo serves ban
Sagredo is suspended for Bolivia, after the 30-year-old saw red in Guayaquil. Otherwise, there are no fresh selection issues for Oscar Villegas.
Predicted Lineup: Viscarra (GK), Rocha, Morales, Haquin, Vaca, Villamil, Cuellar, Menacho, Terrazas, Paz & Monteiro
South America - World Cup Qualifying 25/03/25
D Uruguay 0 Bolivia 0 South America - World Cup Qualifying 21/03/25
L Peru 3 Bolivia 1 South America - World Cup Qualifying 19/11/24
D Paraguay 2 Bolivia 2 South America - World Cup Qualifying 15/11/24
L Ecuador 4 Bolivia 0 South America - World Cup Qualifying 16/10/24
L Argentina 6 Bolivia 0
Paraguay preview: Two enforced changes for Alfaro
The visitors are missing Omar Alderete and Andres Cubas after both picked up bookings against Argentina, leading to suspensions. Otherwise, they could be unchanged.
Predicted Lineup: Fernandez (GK), Velazquez, G. Gomez, Balbuena, Alonso, D. Gomez, Villasanti, Bobadilla, Almiron, Enciso & Sanabria
South America - World Cup Qualifying 26/03/25
D Colombia 2 Paraguay 2 South America - World Cup Qualifying 20/03/25
W Chile 0 Paraguay 1 South America - World Cup Qualifying 19/11/24
D Bolivia 2 Paraguay 2 South America - World Cup Qualifying 14/11/24
W Argentina 1 Paraguay 2 South America - World Cup Qualifying 15/10/24
W Venezuela 1 Paraguay 2
Player to watch – Antonio Sanabria
Having netted again in the key win over Argentina, Sanabria has now scored four times in 2026 World Cup qualifying in only six appearances. Only Darwin Nunez and Leo Messi have more.
Sanabria’s surprising form
The former Real Betis striker has scored three of his country’s last four goals to massively boost their chances of making it to the World Cup. Before this calendar year, he’d only managed three goals in 32 appearances for his country.