All eyes will be on Allianz Parque as two local rivals battle for supremacy in Sao Paulo's biggest regional football competition on Sunday, 16 February 2025. View our free Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo predictions below.
Contents
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo predictions: A stalemate
Key stats
- Three of the last four meetings between these teams were tied at the end of regulation time.
- Spoils were shared in Sao Paulo’s last two games, and in three of Palmeiras’ last five matches.
- Six of Palmeiras’ last eight matches, and five of Sao Paulo’s last seven games featured goals at both ends.
- Palmeiras opened the scoring in five of their last six games.
Correct score prediction: Palmeiras 1-1 Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo are coming off back-to-back draws while Palmeiras' last two home games ended in stalemates. Given that these teams were on level terms at the end of regulation time in three of their last four encounters, this will likely be another stalemate.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Palmeiras are expected winners
- HOME: 4/5 (1.80) – 55.6%
- DRAW: 9/4 (3.25) – 30.8%
- AWAY: 3/1 (4.00) – 25%
*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Palmeiras have a 4-4-1 win-draw-loss record in the Paulista Serie A1. They are third in Group D behind Sao Bernardo and Ponte Preta.
On the other hand, Sao Paulo are Group C leaders with a 4-3-2 record. They have drawn back-to-back games and are without a win in their last three games.
As it stands, Palmeiras are the expected winners at 4/5 (1.80). Teams with these odds generally have a 55.6% probability of winning.
Don’t forget to check out more of our best betting tips and predictions after you’ve dissected our Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo predictions.
It is also important to note that Palmeiras registered the first goal in three of Sao Paulo's last four trips to this stadium. Given that Abel Ferreira’s troops also drew first blood in five of their last six games, Palmeiras to score first has an appealing look at 8/15 (1.53). That one has a 65.2% chance of landing.
Most recent H2Hs: Another low-scoring game on the cards?
To be fair, Sao Paulo have not had a great track record against Palmeiras in recent years, as their only win in the last five meetings between these teams came on penalties.
Interestingly, seven of Palmeiras' last 10 encounters with Sao Paulo went below the 2.5-goal threshold.
Brazil Serie A 18/08/24
Palmeiras
Sao Paulo
Brazil Serie A 30/04/24
Sao Paulo
Palmeiras
Brazil Campeonato Paulista 03/03/24
Sao Paulo
Palmeiras
Brazil Supercopa 04/02/24
Palmeiras
Sao Paulo
Brazil Serie A 26/10/23
Palmeiras
Sao Paulo
Palmeiras preview: Looking to extend extend their unbeaten run
Palmeiras have two injury concerns, with Joaquin Piquerez and Paulinho not expected to be available for selection.
Predicted lineup: Weverton (GK), Murilo, Naves, Rocha, Moreno, Vanderlan, Allan, Fabinho, Mayke, Lopez & Mauricio.
Brazil Serie A 11/05/25
W
Sao Paulo
0
Palmeiras
1
Copa Libertadores 08/05/25
W
Cerro Porteno
0
Palmeiras
2
Brazil Serie A 04/05/25
W
Vasco da Gama
0
Palmeiras
1
Copa do Brasil 30/04/25
W
Ceara
0
Palmeiras
1
Brazil Serie A 27/04/25
L
EC Bahia
1
Palmeiras
0
Sao Paulo preview: Eyeing their second away win since November
Captain Jonathan Calleri has thigh discomfort and may be unavailable for this weekend's clash alongside Wendell.
Predicted lineup: Rafael (GK), Vinicius, Arboleda, Sabino, Diaz, Maia, Alisson, Moura, Oscar, Ferreira & Silva.
Brazil Serie A 11/05/25
L
Palmeiras
1
Sao Paulo
0
Copa Libertadores 06/05/25
W
Alianza Lima
0
Sao Paulo
2
Brazil Serie A 03/05/25
D
Fortaleza
0
Sao Paulo
0
Copa do Brasil 30/04/25
W
Nautico
1
Sao Paulo
2
Brazil Serie A 26/04/25
D
Ceara
1
Sao Paulo
1
Player to watch: Raphael Veiga
Raphael Veiga was impressive earlier this week, setting up two goals in Palmeiras' 3-0 victory over Inter de Limeira. With five assists in his last four appearances, the 29-year-old will look to add to his tally on Sunday night.