Bolton vs Oxford prediction, odds & betting tips 18/05/2024

18/05/24 - 16:15

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Bolton - Oxford Utd

England League 1

1st Round

The first 2024 EFL playoff final will take place on Saturday, 18 May when Bolton and Oxford do battle for a place in the Championship. Bolton were the favourites to win the League One playoffs after narrowly missing out on automatic promotion while Oxford have defied the odds to reach the Wembley final. Ahead of the 16:15 kick-off at Wembley, take a look at our Bolton vs Oxford prediction.

Bolton vs Oxford prediction: Trotters to come through it as expected

Key stats

• Bolton have only lost one of their last nine matches.
• Oxford have only won one of their last eight matches against Bolton.
• Both teams have scored in each of Bolton's last three matches while the same can be said for three of Oxford's last four.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Trotters backed to return to the Championship

• HOME: 10/11 (1.91) – 52.4%
• DRAW: 13/5 (3.60) – 27.8%
• AWAY: 29/10 (3.90) – 25.6%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

The Bolton vs Oxford odds indicate that the Trotters are the favourites for this match and are odds-on to win the match inside 90 minutes. If you look beyond the 90-minute market, Bolton are 4/9 to win the tie and make it to the Championship, even if they need extra time and penalties to do so.

Both teams are in good form coming into the match which makes this a fascinating match. Bolton have lost just one of their last nine matches while Oxford have lost just one of their last ten matches. Interestingly, though, Oxford's second-most recent loss was a 5-0 hammering at the hands of Bolton, which could play a part from a psychological point of view on Saturday.

Both teams have been good in front of goal lately with Bolton's last blank coming in March while Oxford have scored at least once in nine of their last ten matches. As a result, the over 2.5 goals market at 5/6 is also a good free betting tip. In terms of specific goalscorers, Dion Charles has three in his last three for Bolton. Charles is priced at 27/20 to score anytime on Saturday.

Last five H2Hs: A fixture that has been kind to Bolton

Bolton should take great confidence from their recent record against Oxford, particularly the aforementioned 5-0 victory the last time the two teams met. Bolton have lost just one of their last eight matches against Oxford so the U's are up against history as well as everything else on Saturday.

England League 1 12/03/24

Bolton

5

Oxford Utd

0

England League 1 28/11/23

Oxford Utd

0

Bolton

0

England League 1 15/04/23

Oxford Utd

0

Bolton

1

England League 1 29/10/22

Bolton

1

Oxford Utd

3

England League 1 12/02/22

Oxford Utd

2

Bolton

3

Bolton preview: Evatt dreaming of the Championship

Bolton manager, Ian Evatt, is expected to welcome back Jon Bodvarsson to the squad for the playoff final after the forward missed the end of the season due to injury. As a result, the only absentee is Carlos Mendes Gomes with an achilles problem so Evatt will likely go in unchanged.

Predicted lineup: Baxter (GK), Cogley, Jones, Santos, Toal, Williams, Sheehan, Maghoma, Thomason, Charles, Collins

England EFL Trophy 11/02/25

L

Wrexham

1

Bolton

0

England League 1 08/02/25

W

Crawley Town

3

Bolton

4

England League 1 01/02/25

L

Reading

1

Bolton

0

England League 1 28/01/25

W

Northampton

1

Bolton

3

England League 1 25/01/25

W

Huddersfield

0

Bolton

1

Oxford preview: Looking to complete the underdog story

Oxford have grand plans for a new stadium and what better place to push forward with those plans than the Championship? To get there, they will need to overcome Bolton without Tyler Goodrham who was forced off in the semi-finals against Peterborough.

Predicted lineup: Cumming (GK), Long, Moore, Brown, Bennett, Brannagan, Rodrigues, Dale, McGuane, Murphy, Harris

England Championship 11/02/25

D

Derby

0

Oxford Utd

0

England Championship 04/02/25

L

Burnley

1

Oxford Utd

0

England Championship 01/02/25

D

Bristol City

1

Oxford Utd

1

England Championship 25/01/25

D

Stoke

0

Oxford Utd

0

England Championship 21/01/25

W

Luton

2

Oxford Utd

3

Player to watch: Dion Charles

Bolton have largely relied on goals from Dion Charles this season with the forward just one away from hitting the 20-goal mark for the season. Charles is an old-school poacher and isn't one to get too involved in the build-up. If a chance falls his way inside the box at Wembley, though, then expect him to put it away.

Cementing his status as a playoff hero

The majority of Bolton's work in the playoffs this season came in the first leg of their tie with Barnsley. On that night, Charles netted twice so another goal or two at Wembley would make him Bolton's hero of the season.