There’s a crucial 2026 World Cup qualifier in Oslo on Friday. Our Norway vs Italy prediction considers whether Gli Azzurri can make a winning start to their campaign.
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Norway vs Italy prediction: Sorloth to strike in home win
Key stats
- Our Norway vs Italy betting tips take into account that the hosts have scored at least four goals in all of their last four internationals.
- Italy have conceded at least twice in all of their last three games, winning none of them.
- They’ve failed to reach the last two World Cups, winning only 52% of their qualifiers in the last two campaigns.
Correct score prediction: Norway 2-1 Italy
These are the two most likely candidates for top spot in Group I, and Norway are already in a good position after winning their opening two fixtures, both away from home.
They have so much firepower in their side, that they should pose problems for Italy with the likes of Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard both expected to start. With home advantage, they’ve every chance of edging this against an inconsistent Italian outfit.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Bookies struggling to call it
- HOME: 8/5 (2.60) – 38.5%
- DRAW: 12/5 (3.40) – 29.4%
- AWAY: 13/8 (2.63) – 38.1%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The hosts are the very slight favourites according to the Norway vs Italy odds, with an implied probability of 38.5% that they win this match.
They were 4-2 winners in a key game against Israel last time out, with Haaland one of four different scorers.
As for Italy, they came from 3-0 down to draw 3-3 away to Germany in their last match, but it wasn’t enough to prevent a 5-4 aggregate defeat in their Nations League tie.
For more from the upcoming matches in Europe, today’s free football betting tips look at some of the best picks.
Most recent H2Hs: First meeting in a decade
Our Norway vs Italy prediction suggests the Scandinavian side could triumph here in what is the first meeting since Euro 2016 qualifying.
Italy won both matches during that campaign, and they’ve not lost to this opposition since a 1-0 friendly defeat in June 2000.
World Cup 2022 17/11/22
Italy
Norway
Euro 2015 Qualifying 13/10/15
Italy
Norway
Euro 2014 Qualifying 09/09/14
Norway
Italy
Norway preview: Few problems for Solbakken
The hosts have all of their key players available. Stale Solbakken’s squad has not seen any withdrawals and the Norway boss may partner Haaland with Atletico Madrid’s Alexander Sorloth in attack.
Predicted Lineup: Nyland (GK), Ryerson, Ajer, Ostigard, Wolfe, Odegaard, Berge, Berg, Schjelderup, Sorloth & Haaland
Europe - World Cup Qualifying 25/03/25
W Israel 2 Norway 4 Europe - World Cup Qualifying 22/03/25
W Moldova 0 Norway 5 UEFA Nations League B 17/11/24
W Kazakhstan 0 Norway 5 UEFA Nations League B 14/11/24
W Slovenia 1 Norway 4 UEFA Nations League B 13/10/24
L Austria 5 Norway 1
Italy preview: Visitors hit by withdrawals
The Italy squad has been hit by the withdrawals of Manuel Locatelli, Guglielmo Vicario, Matteo Gabbia, Alessandro Buongiorno and Francesco Acerbi.
Predicted Lineup: Donnarumma (GK), Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Gatti, Cambiaso, Barella, Ricci, Tonali, Udogie, Retegui & Kean
UEFA Nations League 23/03/25
D Germany 3 Italy 3 UEFA Nations League 20/03/25
L Germany 2 Italy 1 UEFA Nations League A 17/11/24
L France 3 Italy 1 UEFA Nations League A 14/11/24
W Belgium 0 Italy 1 UEFA Nations League A 14/10/24
W Israel 1 Italy 4
Player to watch – Alexander Sorloth
The hosts can count on two of Europe’s most clinical finishers which means Italy’s defence cannot afford to make mistakes. Sorloth ended the season in Spain in great form, with nine goals in his final eight games in La Liga.
Sorloth fast out of the blocks
The experienced frontman has had an immediate impact in some recent games. He scored four inside 30 minutes against Real Sociedad earlier this month, and also netted a hat-trick within 30 minutes of coming onto the pitch against Girona on the final weekend in Spain.