Newcastle vs Brighton prediction, odds & betting tips – 11/05/2024

Newcastle
11/05/24 - 15:00

Finished

1

-

1

Brighton

Newcastle - Brighton

England Premier League - St James' Park

Newcastle vs Brighton prediction
Newcastle United's Anthony Gordon (left) and Brighton and Hove Albion's James Milner battle for the ball – Photo by Icon Sport

Here are our Premier League predictions for Saturday's clash between Newcastle and Brighton at St James' Park.

The Magpies still harbor hopes of a top-five finish this season but simply have to beat Brighton this weekend to keep that dream alive, while the Seagulls need all three points themselves if they are to finish in the top half of the table.

Newcastle vs Brighton predictions: Magpies eyeing third straight victory

Newcastle vs Brighton Predictions
Our pick

🔥 Hot Tip

Newcastle to Win

⚽ Correct Score prediction

Newcastle 3-1 Brighton

⚽ Anytime Goalscorer prediction

Alexander Isak

Key Stats

  • Newcastle have won three of their last five encounters with Brighton in all competitions and the hosts have picked up four victories from their last five outings, while the Seagulls have lost three of their last five league games.
  • The hosts have scored at least three goals in three of their last four fixtures but have only kept two clean sheets in their last six attempts, which is why we're going with a 3-1 final scoreline in favour of Newcastle.
  • Alexander Isak scored his 20th league goal of the campaign in Newcastle's last game against Burnley and the Swedish international heads into the Brighton game in great form.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Newcastle the favourite

  • HOME: 3/5 (1.60) – 62.5%
  • DRAW: 19/5 (4.80) – 20.8%
  • AWAY: 4/1 (5.00) – 20%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

Newcastle are the expected winner of this game with a win probability of 62.5%, and we tend to agree with the bookmakers on this one.

The Magpies ran out 4-1 winners at Burnley last weekend, while Brighton secured an impressive 1-0 victory at home to Champions League hopefuls Aston Villa.

For more football betting tips on the game, check out the Under/Over 2.5 Goals market. You can back under 2.5 goals at 12/5 (3.40) but the probability is only 29.4%, while a bet on over 2.5 goals has odds of 7/20 (1.35) which has a probability of 74.1%.

Last five H2Hs: Brighton in front

England Premier League 02/09/23

Brighton

Brighton

3
Newcastle

Newcastle

1

Elite Club Friendlies 29/07/23

Brighton

Brighton

1
Newcastle

Newcastle

2

England Premier League 18/05/23

Newcastle

Newcastle

4
Brighton

Brighton

1

England Premier League 25/02/23

Newcastle

Newcastle

0
Brighton

Brighton

0

England Premier League 13/08/22

Brighton

Brighton

0
Newcastle

Newcastle

0

The Seagulls have won seven, drawn six and lost five of their last 18 games against Newcastle in all competitions.

Team news and form guide

Newcastle: Won four of last five

Matt Targett, Sven Botman, Jamaal Lascelles, Joseph Willock, Fabian Schar and Lewis Miley look set to miss the Brighton game through injury but the hosts are hopeful that they will see Kieran Trippier return to the squad.

Predicted lineup: Dúbravka (GK), Burn, Krafth, Livramento, Hall, Murphy, Guimarães, Longstaff, Wilson, Isak & Gordon

Elite Club Friendlies 24/05/24

L

A-League All Stars

A-League All Stars

8

Newcastle

Newcastle

0

Elite Club Friendlies 22/05/24

W

Tottenham

Tottenham

1 (4)

Newcastle

Newcastle

1 (5)

England Premier League 19/05/24

W

Brentford

Brentford

2

Newcastle

Newcastle

4

England Premier League 15/05/24

L

Man Utd

Man Utd

3

Newcastle

Newcastle

2

England Premier League 11/05/24

D

Brighton

Brighton

1

Newcastle

Newcastle

1

Brighton: Lost three of last five

The Seagulls have a long list of injuries including Solomon March, Evan Ferguson, Jack Hinshelwood, Pervis Estupinan, Kaoru Mitoma, Tariq Lamptey, James Milner, Jan Paul van Hecke and Adam Lallana, all of whom are expected to miss the trip to St James' Park.

Predicted lineup: Verbruggen (GK), Webster, Veltman, Dunk, Julio, Groß, Gilmour, Buonanotte, Welbeck, Pedro & Adingra

Europe Friendlies 13/07/24

L

Basingstoke

Basingstoke

2

Brighton

Brighton

1

England Premier League 19/05/24

L

Man Utd

Man Utd

2

Brighton

Brighton

0

England Premier League 15/05/24

L

Chelsea

Chelsea

2

Brighton

Brighton

1

England Premier League 11/05/24

D

Newcastle

Newcastle

1

Brighton

Brighton

1

England Premier League 05/05/24

W

Aston Villa

Aston Villa

0

Brighton

Brighton

1

Player to watch – Bruno Guimarães

Bruno Guimarães is enjoying his second full season with the Magpies but there have been rumours that Newcastle will have to sell one of their big names this summer to meet PSR rules.

Bruno Guimarães player to watch
Newcastle could be forced to sell Bruno Guimaraes – Photo by Icon Sport

The former Lyon midfielder has chipped in with six goals and six assists in the Premier League this season and he provides the engine in the heart of this Newcastle team.

Will Newcastle be forced to cash in on one of their prized assets?

We're backing Guimaraes to put in another impressive performance on Saturday against Brighton, one that should guide the Magpies to another three points and a step closer to European football next season.


A lifelong Evertonian, James started writing for an Everton fan site in the mid-2000s and then developed his own blog covering football transfers from across Europe's big leagues before becoming a regular match preview and betting tips writer for Biggest Free Bets. James moved to Free Super Tips next, and then Racing Post, where he worked as a full-time betting tips writer for a few years. Following that, James joined Football Whispers in December 2020 and has been a permanent fixture ever-since, currently covering the Premier League amongst other things