The fifth round of the UEFA Champions League is set to see Italian giants Napoli welcome Azerbaijani champions Qarabag to the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona on Tuesday night. Both sides are looking to secure crucial points in the league phase, with the hosts desperate to climb up the table after a poor start to their European campaign.
Gli Azzurri have not been at their best lately, having won two, drawn two and lost one in their last five games. They come into this fixture following a 3-1 thrashing of Atalanta in Serie A at the weekend.
The visitors, meanwhile, travel to Naples looking confident, with an unbeaten run of three wins and two draws in their last five games. They secured a convincing 4-2 victory over Sumgayit FK in their domestic league, extending their impressive recent run of form.
Read our Napoli vs Qarabag predictions and preview to find out, but remember to also check our other UEFA Champions League predictions.
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Napoli vs Qarabag prediction: Home team to win convincingly
Key statistics
- Two of their last four Champions League games have had over 2.5 goals scored.
- Hojlund is one of Napoli’s top scorers in the Champions League this season.
- Napoli have not lost at home in their last five games in all competitions.
Correct score prediction: Napoli 3-0 Qarabag
Napoli will look to control this game from start to finish and will be eager to assert their dominance on home soil. Gli Azzurri have been solid at home in Europe this season and have not lost in the competition, so we believe they will get an easy win in this encounter.
The Horsemen have shown resilience, notably drawing with Chelsea recently, but facing Napoli in Italy is a different proposition. We are backing the Italian side to keep a clean sheet and secure a comfortable 3-0 victory to get their campaign back on track.
Pre-match odds and win probability: Bookmakers back Napoli to win
- Home: 2/7 (1.29) – 77.8%
- Draw: 19/4 (5.75) – 17.4%
- Away: 17/2 (9.50) – 10.5%
*Odds provided by Ladbrokes. Subject to change.*
The bookmakers have made the hosts the clear favourites to win this match with odds of 1.29, representing a 77.8% probability of victory. The draw is priced at 5.75 (17.4%), while an away win for Qarabag is seen as highly unlikely at 9.50, giving them just a 10.5% chance of causing an upset. This reflects the difference in quality between the two squads, despite Napoli's recent inconsistencies.
Most recent head-to-head: No previous meetings
This is the first time these two teams will be playing each other in a competitive game and there are no past head-to-head stats to look at for this encounter. So, any prediction for this debut European match has to rely on how they are playing lately and their general track record in Europe. Given Napoli's significant experience in these big games, they definitely have the edge going into this one.
After reviewing our key Napoli vs Qarabag predictions, be sure to visit our website for the remaining football betting tips today.
Napoli preview: Key players out with injury
Napoli's injury crisis has worsened, with key midfielder Frank Anguissa sustaining a serious thigh injury while on international duty, ruling him out alongside Belgian veterans Romelu Lukaku and Kevin De Bruyne.
Also, first-choice goalkeeper Alex Meret is unavailable and manager Antonio Conte also has lingering fitness concerns over Billy Gilmour and Leonardo Spinazzola, as they were not fit enough to participate in the match against Atalanta.
Predicted lineup: Milinkovic-Savic (GK), Beukema, Rrahmani, Buongiorno, Di Lorenzo, Lobotka, McTominay, Olivera, Politano, Neres & Hojlund
Last five fixtures
- 22.11.25 – Napoli 3–1 Atalanta
- 09.11.25 – Bologna 2–0 Napoli
- 04.11.25 – Napoli 0–0 Eintracht Frankfurt (CL)
- 01.11.25 – Napoli 0–0 Como
- 28.10.25 – Lecce 0–1 Napoli
Qarabag preview: No major injury problem
It is easier to guess Qarabag's lineup, though. Manager Qurban Qurbanov has pretty much stuck with the same core 10 players who have started every league match. They might even field an unchanged team on Tuesday, with Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev being the only real question mark.
Predicted lineup: Kochalski (GK), Silva, Mustafazada, Medina, Cafarguliyev, Bicalho, Jankovic, Kady, Andrade, Zoubir & Duran
Last five fixtures
- 21.11.25 – Sumqayit 2–4 Qarabag
- 09.11.25 – Qarabag 2–0 Neftci Baku
- 05.11.25 – Qarabag 2–2 Chelsea (CL)
- 31.10.25 – Qarabag 2–0 Imisli FK
- 26.10.25 – Qarabag 0–0 Shamakhi
Player to watch: Rasmus Hojlund
Rasmus Hojlund has been a star player for Napoli since joining the club during the summer transfer window. The forward has been consistently one of the most effective attackers in the team.
In the Champions League, he is one of the top scorers, having scored two goals in his last three games, showing how important he has been in their attack. Napoli will look to use the striker's attacking quality to push for a win against Qarabag.