Napoli prepare to host AC Milan in the Italian Supercup semi-final on Thursday at a neutral location, King Saud University Stadium, with both teams aiming to reach the final of the competition.
The home team arrive in Saudi Arabia in unimpressive form, having suffered a 1-0 defeat to Udinese in Serie A on Sunday, marking back-to-back losses across all competitions for the second time this season.
The Partenopei remain embroiled in a tight Scudetto race, with the top three teams separated by just two points, and will view the Supercoppa as an opportunity to regain the momentum that had produced five consecutive victories before these setbacks.
The visitors, meanwhile, saw their Serie A lead slip to arch-rivals Inter following a 2-2 draw with Sassuolo at the weekend. The Rossoneri have drawn five of their last 11 competitive matches, with a single defeat coming against Lazio in the Coppa Italia.
Notably, Milan’s qualification for the Supercoppa came after last season’s Coppa Italia final, where they were defeated by Bologna, adding extra motivation to secure silverware in Saudi Arabia.
Read our Napoli vs AC Milan predictions and preview to find out, but remember to also check our other Italian Super Cup predictions.
Contents
Napoli vs AC Milan prediction: Expect a draw
Key statistics
- Napoli have drawn twice at home against AC Milan in their last five meetings.
- One of their recent meetings ended in a 1-1 draw.
- BTTS has been played in three of their last five meetings.
Correct score prediction: Napoli 1-1 AC Milan
Given Napoli’s unbeaten run and top form and AC Milan’s return to winning ways, we expect a draw in this encounter at full-time. The Partenopei consistency and recent momentum have been central to their strong campaign.
With the match taking place on neutral ground, both teams will be looking to push for a final spot in the competition. We expect at least a goal from the two teams, with the game possibly ending in a 1-1 draw as our prediction.
Pre-match odds and win probability: Very balanced, but AC Milan is slightly favoured
- Home: 17/10 (2.70) – 37.0%
- Draw: 11/5 (3.20) – 31.2%
- Away: 13/8 (2.63) – 38.1%
*Odds provided by Ladbrokes. Subject to change.*
The odds point to a very tight game, with AC Milan holding a slight edge at 2.63 odds (38.1%). Napoli are close behind at 2.70 odds (37.0%), showing that the home side is still a strong contender.
The draw also carries significant weight at (3.20)31.2%, reflecting how evenly matched both teams appear. Overall, bookmakers expect a cautious, tactical battle where all three outcomes remain highly possible.
Most recent head-to-head: The short history favours the Italian side
The last five competitive meetings between Napoli and AC Milan in all competitions have been very tight. Both sides have claimed two wins each, alongside one draw, showing how unpredictable these clashes can be. Their most recent game was a 2-1 home win for AC Milan in 2025 and Napoli also got their revenge, with a 2-1 home victory in the second clash in 2025.
Italy Serie A 28/09/25
AC Milan
Napoli
Italy Serie A 30/03/25
Napoli
AC Milan
Italy Serie A 29/10/24
AC Milan
Napoli
Italy Serie A 11/02/24
AC Milan
Napoli
Italy Serie A 29/10/23
Napoli
AC Milan
After reviewing our key Napoli vs AC Milan predictions, be sure to visit our website for the remaining football betting tips today.
Napoli preview: Major injury concerns
Napoli face significant squad disruption ahead of this fixture, as Juan Jesus, Alex Meret, Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa, Billy Gilmour, Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku are all sidelined with injuries. This leaves the manager with limited options in both defence and attack, forcing key adjustments.
Predicted lineup: Milinkovic-Savic (GK), Beukema, Rrahmani, Buongiorno, Di Lorenzo, McTominay, Elmas, Olivera, David Neres, Hojlund & Lang
Last five fixtures
- 14.12.25 – Udinese 1–0 Napoli
- 10.12.25 – Benfica 2–0 Napoli
- 07.12.25 – Napoli 2–1 Juventus
- 03.12.25 – Napoli 2–1 Cagliari
- 30.11.25 – AS Roma 0–1 Napoli
AC Milan preview: Injury-hit squad
AC Milan also head into this clash with several key absentees. Matteo Gabbia, Santiago Gimenez, Youssouf Fofana, and Rafael Leao are all unavailable due to injury, limiting depth across defence and the forward line.
Predicted lineup: Maignan (GK), Tomori, De Winter, Pavlovic, Saelemaekers, Loftus-Cheek, Modric, Rabiot, Bartesaghi, Nkunku & Pulisic
Last five fixtures
- 14.12.25 – AC Milan 2–2 Sassuolo
- 08.12.25 – Torino 2–3 AC Milan
- 04.12.25 – Lazio 1–0 AC Milan
- 29.11.25 – AC Milan 1–0 Lazio
- 23.11.25 – Inter 0–1 AC Milan
Player to watch: Rasmus Hojlund
Rasmus Hojlund is Napoli’s key man up front and their goal threat for this clash. The Danish striker has already contributed six goals and one assist across all competitions this season and has been in strong scoring form. With his pace and clinical finishing, Hojlund will be central to Napoli’s chances as they aim to reach the final of the Super Cup.