With a World Cup berth on the line, Italy travel to bottom-placed Moldova in what is expected to be a one-sided contest at the Stadionul Zimbru in Chisnau on Thursday, 13 November.
Keep close tabs on our World Cup predictions after viewing our key Moldova vs Italy tips below.
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Moldova vs Italy prediction: Azzurri all the way
Key stats
- Moldova are winless in all six of their Group I fixtures so far (D1, L5).
- Tricolorii haven’t drawn any of their last nine home games (W5, L4).
- Italy are on a five-match winning run across all competitions.
- The Azzurri have lost just once away from home in seven outings (W5, D1).
Correct score prediction: Moldova 1-3 Italy
Sitting at the bottom of Group I with a solitary point to their name, Moldova have struggled spectacularly this World Cup qualifying campaign, although their 1-1 draw with Estonia halted their seven-match losing streak. Lilian Popescu’s men fell 2-0 in the reverse fixture back in June to Italy, who are in line to secure their first World Cup appearance since 2014.
Gennaro Gattuso’s side sit just three points behind group leaders Norway, who they meet on the final matchday a few days later. Italy clearly wouldn’t want to leave anything to luck and securing an automatic qualification spot is of utmost importance.
High on momentum, the visitors will look to hurt Moldova where it matters the most, and take a huge stride ahead of their showdown with Norway.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Italian victory on the horizon
- HOME: 40/1 (41.00) = 2.4%
- DRAW: 14/1 (15.00) = 6.6%
- AWAY: 1/20 (1.05) = 95.2%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Already eliminated, Moldova are low on morale in the dugout, having conceded 26 goals in six WCQ fixtures. They are backed by 40/1 (41.00) odds, suggesting a meager 2.4% chance of success on home turf.
Italy clearly have the momentum in their favour, winning five and losing just once this qualifying campaign. The Azzurri have odds of 1/20 (1.05) stacked in their favour – a 95.2% win probability rate.
Visit our football betting tips page for more free predictions.
Most recent H2Hs: Azzurri supremacy
Italy have claimed bragging rights in each of their six historical H2Hs dating back to 1996.
International Match 07/10/20
Italy
Moldova
Moldova preview: Can they upset Italy?
Popescu and co. welcome the Azzurri with a fully fit squad at their disposal.
Predicted lineup: Avam (GK), Motpan, Craciun, Babohlo, Platica, Reabciuk, Caimacov, Rata, Ionita, Postolachi & Nicolaescu
Last five matches:
- Estonia 1-1 Moldova (World Cup Qualifiers)
- Romania 2-1 Moldova (International Friendly)
- Norway 11-1 Moldova (World Cup Qualifiers)
- Moldova 0-4 Israel (World Cup Qualifiers)
- Italy 2-0 Moldova (World Cup Qualifiers)
Italy preview: Clear underdogs
Nicolo Barella is sidelined due to a one-match suspension and remains Gattuso’s only major absentee alongside Moise Kean.
Predicted lineup: Donnarumma (GK), Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Calafiori, Orsolini, Frattesi, Tonali, Dimarco, Kean, Raspadori & Retegui
Last five matches:
- Italy 3-0 Israel (World Cup Qualifiers)
- Estonia 1-3 Italy (World Cup Qualifiers)
- Israel 4-5 Italy (World Cup Qualifiers)
- Italy 5-0 Estonia (World Cup Qualifiers)
- Italy 2-0 Moldova (World Cup Qualifiers)
Player to watch: Mateo Retegui
Retegui has been in fantastic form this season at club level, but it is with Italy that he has really excelled. The former Atalanta marksman has five goals and four assists for the Azzurri in five World Cup qualifiers so far this campaign, including a match-winning brace against Israel last matchday.