All eyes will be on State Farm Stadium as Mexico and Saudi Arabia battle for a place in the semifinal of the CONCACAF Gold Cup on Sunday, 29 June 2025.
View our free Mexico vs Saudi Arabia predictions below.
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Mexico vs Saudi Arabia predictions: A low-scoring affair
Key stats
- Mexico kept three clean sheets in their last four matches.
- Seven of Saudi Arabia's last eight games went below the 2.5-goal line.
- There were fewer than five cards in eight of Saudi Arabia's last nine matches.
- Mexico have never lost to Saudi Arabia.
Correct score prediction: Mexico 2-0 Saudi Arabia
Mexico have been the most dominant team in this competition over the last two decades. They have reached the semifinals in each of the last nine editions of the CONCACAF Gold Cup, with seven final appearances and five titles in that stretch.
Interestingly, the defending champions have a great track record against Saudi Arabia, with five wins and a draw in six previous clashes between these teams.
Given Saudi Arabia's disappointing group stage campaign, we are confident that Mexico will emerge victorious while keeping a clean sheet.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Mexico are overwhelming favourites
- HOME: 4/9 (1.44) – 69.2%
- DRAW: 16/5 (4.20) – 23.8%
- AWAY: 11/2 (6.50) – 15.4%
*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Ahead of this encounter, Mexico are the expected winners at 4/9 (1.44). Teams with these odds usually have a 69.2% probability of winning.
Don’t forget to check out more of our best betting tips and predictions after you’ve dissected our Mexico vs Saudi Arabia predictions.
We have also pointed out that fewer than three goals were scored in seven of Saudi Arabia's last eight games. For this reason, under 2.5 total goals has an appealing look at 3/4 (1.75). That one has a 57.1% chance of landing.
Most recent H2Hs: Business as usual for Mexico?
This will be the seventh clash between these teams, and Saudi Arabia have never beaten Mexico (D1, L5). The most recent encounter between Mexico and Saudi Arabia took place during the group stage of the 2022 FIFA World Cup.
World Cup 2022 30/11/22
Saudi Arabia
Mexico
Mexico preview: A clean bill of health
Having recorded victories against the Dominican Republic and Suriname before a goalless draw with Costa Rica in their last group game, reigning champions Mexico will face tournament guests Saudi Arabia in the second quarterfinal clash with eyes fully set on retaining their crown.
With no injuries to report for El Tri, it is worth pointing out that this contest will head straight to penalties if it ends in stalemates at the end of regulation time.
Predicted lineup: Malagon (GK), Reyes, Montes, Vasquez, Gallardo, Alvarado, Alvarez, Ruiz, Vega, Jimenez & Quinones.
CONCACAF Nations League 24/03/25
W
Panama
1
Mexico
2
CONCACAF Nations League 21/03/25
W
Canada
0
Mexico
2
African Nations C'ship Qualifying 22/01/25
L
River Plate
2
Mexico
0
CONCACAF Nations League 20/11/24
W
Honduras
0
Mexico
4
CONCACAF Nations League 16/11/24
L
Honduras
2
Mexico
0
Saudi Arabia preview: Eyeing their first semifinal appearance
Saudi Arabia squeezed past Haiti in their opener before a defeat to the United States. They scaled through as runners’ up in Group D with a 1-1 draw against Trinidad and Tobago.
This game is the biggest test yet for the Green Falcons as they bid to reach the last four in their first attempt. But being the lowest-scoring side in the knockout phase and missing key stars such as Nasser Al-Dawsari and Salem Al-Dawsari due to their involvement for Al Hilal in the FIFA Club World Cup, it just might be the end of the road for Herve Renard's troops.
Predicted lineup: Al-Aqidi (GK), Majrashi, Al-Amri, Madu, Abdulhamid, Aljohani, Yahya, Mukhtar, Al-Buraikan, Al-Shehri & Alobud.
Asia - World Cup Qualifying 25/03/25
D
Japan
0
Saudi Arabia
0
Asia - World Cup Qualifying 20/03/25
W
China PR
0
Saudi Arabia
1
Gulf Cup 31/12/24
L
Oman
2
Saudi Arabia
1
Gulf Cup 28/12/24
W
Iraq
1
Saudi Arabia
3
Gulf Cup 25/12/24
W
Yemen
2
Saudi Arabia
3
Player to watch: Cesar Montes
From his debut in 2017 until the start of this tournament, Cesar Montes had scored only once in 54 appearances for Mexico. However, the Lokomotiv Moscow defender has been nothing short of impressive in this competition, scoring three goals in three group games. It will be interesting to see if Montes will continue his fine form this weekend.