An interesting fixture is on the cards as Mexico and Costa Rica draw swords in the third round of the CONCACAF Gold Cup at Allegiant Stadium on Monday, 23 June 2025.
View our free Mexico vs Costa Rica predictions below.
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Mexico vs Costa Rica predictions: A low-scoring affair
Key stats
- Six consecutive meetings between Mexico and Costa Rica have gone below the 2.5-goal threshold.
- Mexico are unbeaten in their last 11 encounters with Costa Rica.
- There were fewer than nine corners in each of Mexico's last three competitive games.
Correct score prediction: Mexico 2-0 Costa Rica
Although Costa Rica have won four consecutive matches against Bahamas, Trinidad and Tobago, Dominican Republic, and Suriname, they will have their work cut out for them when they meet Mexico on Monday.
Interestingly, not only are Mexico unbeaten in their last 11 meetings with Costa Rica, but they also did not concede a single goal in the last five skirmishes between these outfits.
Taking everything into account, we are backing Mexico to win to nil.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Mexico are clear favourites
- HOME: 11/20 (1.55) – 64.5%
- DRAW: 29/10 (3.90) – 25.6%
- AWAY: 9/2 (5.50) – 18.2%
*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Mexico and Costa Rica were paired alongside Suriname and Dominican Republic in Group A of the CONCACAF Gold Cup.
Having won their first two group games, Mexico and Costa Rica have both qualified for the quarterfinals, irrespective of the outcome of this match.
However, much is still at stake, as the match winner will finish atop Group A, potentially meeting a weaker opponent in the quarterfinals.
On that note, Mexico are the expected winners at 11/20 (1.55). Teams with these odds usually have a 64.5% probability of winning.
Don’t forget to check out more of our best betting tips and predictions after you’ve dissected our Mexico vs Costa Rica predictions.
We have also established that fewer than three goals were scored in six consecutive clashes between these teams. For this reason, under 2.5 total goals has an appealing look at 1/1 (2.00). That one has a 50% chance of landing.
Most recent H2Hs: Business as usual for Mexico?
Mexico have not lost to Costa Rica since October 2013. In 11 clashes since then, they have eight wins and three draws, keeping seven clean sheets.
Moreover, the most recent encounter between these teams was in the previous edition of the CONCACAF Gold Cup, where Mexico defeated Costa Rica in the quarterfinals en route to winning the title.
CONCACAF Gold Cup 09/07/23
Mexico
Costa Rica
North & Central America - World Cup Qualifying 30/01/22
Mexico
Costa Rica
Central America - World Cup Qualifying 06/09/21
Costa Rica
Mexico
CONCACAF Nations League 04/06/21
Mexico
Costa Rica
International Match 30/03/21
Costa Rica
Mexico
Mexico preview: Title defence on the cards?
Mexico have been the most successful team in the history of this competition, winning nine of 17 previous editions. They also reached the final in each of the last three editions and will look to continue that streak.
Javier Aguirre made changes to the starting XI against Dominican Republic when his side faced Suriname in their second group game, and he is expected to tweak his team again for this clash.
While Aguirre will likely maintain his 4-4-2 system, it's unclear if Julian Quinones will again partner Raul Jimenez at the expense of Santiago Gimenez.
Predicted lineup: Malagon (GK), Reyes, Montes, Vasquez, Gallardo, Vega, Ruiz, Alvarez, Alvarado, Quinones & Jimenez.
CONCACAF Nations League 24/03/25
W
Panama
1
Mexico
2
CONCACAF Nations League 21/03/25
W
Canada
0
Mexico
2
African Nations C'ship Qualifying 22/01/25
L
River Plate
2
Mexico
0
CONCACAF Nations League 20/11/24
W
Honduras
0
Mexico
4
CONCACAF Nations League 16/11/24
L
Honduras
2
Mexico
0
Costa Rica preview: Eyeing their biggest win in almost three years
Costa Rica have booked their place in the knockout stages of this competition for the 14th consecutive time. Interestingly, they were eliminated by Mexico in five of their last nine campaigns.
Los Ticos are still in the hunt for their first-ever Gold Cup title. They came close once, losing to USA in the 2002 final.
Predicted lineup: Navas (GK), C. Mora, Mitchell, Vargas, Calvo, J. Mora, Aguilera, Galo, Alcocer, Ugalde & Martinez.
CONCACAF Gold Cup Qualifying 26/03/25
W
Belize
1
Costa Rica
6
CONCACAF Gold Cup Qualifying 22/03/25
W
Belize
0
Costa Rica
7
International Match 23/01/25
L
USA
3
Costa Rica
0
CONCACAF Nations League 19/11/24
D
Panama
2
Costa Rica
2
CONCACAF Nations League 15/11/24
L
Panama
1
Costa Rica
0
Player to watch: Manfred Ugalde
As it stands, no player has more direct goal involvements than Manfred Ugalde in the CONCACAF Gold Cup (3 goals, 1 assist). The Spartak Moscow forward has been in sensational form, scoring five goals and providing two assists in his last five appearances for club and country. He will fancy his chances against the defending champions.