Martin Zubimendi to Chelsea – will it happen? Football Whispers Index scores Arsenal transfer rumour

Martin Zubimendi has gone from Arsenal's first-choice holding midfielder to a player with no Premier League starts this season, and Chelsea are watching.

The Independent reported on 10 November that Chelsea, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid are all monitoring him ahead of the January window.

The Whispers Index puts the chance of him joining Chelsea at 47 out of 100.

Martin Zubimendi to Chelsea rated ”Unlikely”

The Football Whispers Index scores every transfer rumour across five weighted factors. Read how it works here.

The index weighs the money, the buying club's need, the player's motivation, the selling club's incentive and the credibility of the reporting, then adjusts for rival suitors and the stage the deal has reached.

Chelsea's need is the strongest part of the case, with Enzo Fernandez sold to Manchester City and the deal for Lamine Camara collapsed.

Against that, no outlet has reported a bid, Arsenal are a direct London rival, and Zubimendi has told Marca he is patient and wants his place back, which is why the single most decisive fact is the absence of any approach.

Financial viability

A £60m fee, which Arsenal are reported to want back, is about 12% of the €584m Chelsea generated in 2024/25, so the price itself is manageable.

The harder question is the rulebook, because UEFA fined Chelsea €11m in 2025 over squad cost ratio and the Premier League's 85% rule applies for the first time this season.

Zubimendi's estimated £90,000 a week sits well below the £280,000 Morgan Rogers earns, so wages are unlikely to be the obstacle.

His contract runs to 2030, which means Arsenal can hold out for their money rather than take a discount.

Buying club need

Chelsea sold Enzo Fernandez to Manchester City on deadline day and failed to land Lamine Camara as his replacement, leaving Xabi Alonso short in the one area he cares most about.

Moises Caicedo played 14 minutes in the opening weeks with a calf injury, Romeo Lavia has rarely stayed fit, and 36-year-old Jordan Henderson has partnered Valentin Barco in the double pivot.

Alonso asked Real Madrid to sign Zubimendi in 2025, so this is a manager's long-held choice rather than a name pulled from a spreadsheet.

He played 3,001 Premier League minutes last season, which shows he is ready for the job from day one.

Player motivation

Moving from the Premier League champions, top of Opta's rankings on 100.0, to a Chelsea side ranked 12th on 93.3 is a step down on the pitch.

What Chelsea can offer is football, because Zubimendi has not started a Premier League game for Arsenal this season.

Graeme Bailey of TEAMtalk reported on 3 November that he is ready to consider leaving in January, with seven clubs including Chelsea informed.

The brake is his own voice, as he told Marca he is patient and wants to win his place back.

Selling club incentive

Arsenal have cover, having signed Bruno Guimaraes in August to join Declan Rice, Mikel Merino and Martin Odegaard.

Even so, Mikel Arteta has called him “a very important player for us”, and TEAMtalk reported that Arsenal blocked a sale over the summer.

Five goals in 38 Premier League games last season give Arsenal no reason to discount him, and selling to a London rival makes a bargain even less likely.

Market momentum

Bailey first linked Chelsea in September and updated the story on 3 November, and the Independent followed on 10 November.

The story has travelled through TEAMtalk and Football London, but it traces back to only a few original sources.

RNE reporter Silvia Barba said on 9 November that Atletico Madrid are close to signing him, which puts Chelsea in a race rather than in front.

No outlet has reported a bid, an approach to Arsenal or a fee discussion from Chelsea.

Martin Zubimendi to Chelsea: Will or won't it happen?

For this to happen, Zubimendi has to push for a January exit, Arsenal have to accept a fee near the £60m they paid, and Chelsea have to beat Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid to him.

Arsenal's reluctance to strengthen a London rival is the biggest obstacle, and Atletico completing the move RNE calls close would end it outright.

Nothing yet suggests Chelsea are ahead, so 47 is the right number until a bid is reported.