Manchester City are big favourites to reach the Carabao Cup final as they hold a two-goal lead from the first leg at St. James' Park against Newcastle United. Indeed, City won that game 2-0, and now prepare to host the Magpies at the Etihad Stadium for the second leg on Wednesday night.
Both teams will be extra motivated for this clash having recorded disappointing results in the Premier League over the weekend, with Newcastle losing 4-1 at Liverpool and City being pegged back to a 2-2 draw by Tottenham Hotspur in North London. Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see how this match is approached in terms of team selection and tactics.
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Manchester City vs Newcastle prediction: City to stroll in final?
Key stats
- City are unbeaten in nine home games in all competitions, winning seven of them.
- Newcastle are on a three-match winless streak across all competitions.
- Newcastle have also won just once in the last six H2Hs in all competitions.
Correct score prediction: Manchester City 2-0 Newcastle
Newcastle will have to go for it from the off, which could leave them very vulnerable defensively. City could well capitalise on that, given their strong home record both in terms of recent form and previous H2Hs.
Pre-game odds and win probability: City big favourites with bookmakers
- HOME: 4/5 (1.80) – 55.6%
- DRAW: 3/1 (4.00) – 25.0%
- AWAY: 3/1 (4.00) – 25.0%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
As shown by the implied probabilities, City have been installed as the overwhelming favourites with bookmakers to secure another victory in the second leg and sail safely through into the final. Interestingly, both a draw and a Newcastle victory in normal time are rated at 25% each.
Also, feel free to check out our dedicated Today’s betting tips page for more of our Carabao Cup predictions.
Most recent H2Hs: City on top
As mentioned before, Newcastle have only managed to win once in six previous meetings with City across all competitions. The Cityzens have also won the last seven H2Hs on home soil, without conceding no less, and so they should be very confident of another victory here.
England EFL Cup 13/01/26
Newcastle
Man City
England Premier League 22/11/25
Newcastle
Man City
England Premier League 15/02/25
Man City
Newcastle
England Premier League 28/09/24
Newcastle
Man City
England FA Cup 16/03/24
Man City
Newcastle
Manchester City preview: Cherki now doubtful
Rayan Cherki, who scored against Tottenham last time out, is now doubtful after picking up an injury in the game. City could choose to rotate the squad slightly with one foot already in the final.
Predicted lineup: Trafford (GK); Nunes, Khusanov, Guehi, Ait-Nouri; Gonzalez; Silva, Foden, O’Reilly, Semenyo & Marmoush
Last five results:
- Tottenham 2-2 Manchester City
- Manchester City 2-0 Galatasaray
- Manchester City 2-0 Wolves
- Bodo/Glimt 3-1 Manchester City
- Manchester United 2-0 Manchester City
Newcastle preview: Will Guimaraes play?
Bruno Guimaraes is still a doubt for Newcastle, but they could choose to risk him from the start given they have to overturn a two-goal deficit. The Magpies have reported no fresh concerns in their squad.
Predicted lineup: Ramsdale (GK); Trippier, Thiaw, Burn, Hall; Guimaraes, Tonali, Willock; Barnes, Wissa & Gordon
Last five results:
- Liverpool 4-1 Newcastle
- PSG 1-1 Newcastle
- Newcastle 0-2 Aston Villa
- Newcastle 3-0 PSV
- Wolves 0-0 Newcastle
Player to watch: Antoine Semenyo
Antoine Semenyo has been a breath of fresh air for City, scoring four goals in five appearances so far. One of those was in the first leg against Newcastle, and another against Tottenham last time out, so he is undoubtedly the danger man that the Magpies need to try and keep quiet.