The battle for Bundesliga survival continues as Mainz 05 welcome Hamburger SV to the Mewa Arena for a tasty Friday night encounter.
Can the hosts shake off a heavy defeat to Borussia Dortmund, or will the visitors continue their impressive unbeaten run? Read our Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV prediction and preview to find out, but don’t forget to also check out our other Bundesliga predictions here.
Contents
- 1 Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV prediction: Visitors set sights on season double
- 2 Pre-game odds and win probability: Mainz favoured by bookies
- 3 Most recent H2Hs: Hamburger SV eye rare season double
- 4 Mainz 05 preview: Huge problems in defence
- 5 Hamburger SV preview: Visitors target successive away wins
- 6 Last five matches
- 7 Player to watch: Ransford Konigsdorffer
Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV prediction: Visitors set sights on season double
Key Stats
- Mainz have won their last three league matches at home.
- Mainz have received a joint-highest 56 cards in the league this season.
- Hamburg are in the midst of a five-match unbeaten run in the Bundesliga.
- Hamburg still have one of the worst away records in the league, picking up six points from 10 matches.
Correct score prediction: Mainz 05 2-2 Hamburger SV
Mainz saw their three-match winning run come to a crushing end last weekend, with the club enduring a disappointing 4-0 defeat at the hands of Borussia Dortmund.
For Die Nullfunfer, this was only their second defeat in 11 competitive games, though the heavy scoreline appears to have removed a lot of momentum from under their wings.
Nevertheless, Mainz are still unbeaten in their previous five home matches across all competitions, and they will be determined to avenge their 4-0 defeat to Hamburg from October.
Speaking of Die Rothosen, it feels like someone has used a time machine at the Volksparkstadion.
The main priority for newly promoted HSV was to secure their Bundesliga status for next season, though following a five-match unbeaten run, the club are now beginning to dream of Europe – something they have not done in almost two decades.
It is not outrageous to think that a seventh-spot finish in the standings could open the doors to continental football, and it certainly gives Hamburg fresh incentive ahead of these final months of the campaign. Though with the team currently in ninth, there is still a lot of work to do.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Mainz favoured by bookies
HOME: 11/10 (2.10) – 47.6%
DRAW: 23/10 (3.30) – 30.3%
AWAY: 5/2 (3.50) – 28.6%
*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Looking at those Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV odds, it is evident that the bookmakers are going with the home team.
If you liked our predictions for this game, remember to also check our betting tips for today.
Most recent H2Hs: Hamburger SV eye rare season double
Hamburg enjoyed one of their most dominant wins of the season when they thrashed Mainz 4-0 back in October.
That fixture marked the first meeting between these clubs for over seven years, and it also ended Hamburg’s six-match winless run against Die Nullfunfer.
Merlin Polzin will now be hoping to lead his men to their first away victory over Mainz since 2015.
Germany Bundesliga I 05/10/25
Hamburg
Mainz
Mainz 05 preview: Huge problems in defence
Mainz head coach Urs Fischer has got some serious thinking to do after losing key players ahead of Friday’s huge clash with Hamburg.
Stefan Bell, who has been one of the leading defensive figures for Mainz, is out of action for the next few weeks with a sprained ligament in his knee.
Captain Silvan Widmer, meanwhile, picked up his fifth yellow card against BVB, and he will now serve a suspension.
Anthony Caci remains out of action with a thigh problem, Maxim Dal is still nursing a knee issue, and goalkeeper Robin Zentner continues to struggle with his groin.
Benedict Hollerbach has missed the last two games with an Achilles tendon injury, while Sota Kawasaki has not been seen since December due to a muscular issue.
Predicted lineup: Batz (GK), Posch, Kohr, Potulski, Da Costa, Lee, Sano, Amiri, Mwene, Silas & Tietz
Last five matches
13/02/26: Borussia Dortmund 4-0 Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
07/02/26: Mainz 05 2-0 Augsburg (Bundesliga)
31/01/26: RB Leipzig 1-2 Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
24/01/26: Mainz 05 3-1 VfL Wolfsburg (Bundesliga)
17/01/26: FC Koln 2-1 Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
Hamburger SV preview: Visitors target successive away wins
Behind the scenes at HSV, there are major changes happening to the club’s ownership model, with the hierarchy hoping to raise a whopping €100m (£87m).
On the field, things are also looking tasty, with the club enjoying a five-match unbeaten run and sitting six points clear of the bottom three.
Die Rothosen recently earned their first away win of the season when they defeated Heidenheim, and their goal will now shift towards doing the same at Mainz.
In terms of personnel, new signing Albert Gronbaek remains on the sidelines with a thigh problem. Alexander Rossing-Lelesiit and Albert Sambi Lokonga are also on the injury list.
Luka Vuskovic, on the other hand, is suspended after picking up his fifth yellow card of the season against Union Berlin last weekend.
Predicted lineup: Heuer Fernandes (GK), Capaldo, Elfadli, Torunarigha, Jatta, Remberg, Vieira, Muheim, Konigsdorffer, Glatzel & Otele
Last five matches
14/02/26: Hamburger SV 3-2 FC Union Berlin (Bundesliga)
07/02/26: FC Heidenheim 0-2 Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)
31/01/26: Hamburger SV 2-2 Bayern Munich (Bundesliga)
23/01/26: St. Pauli 0-0 Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)
17/01/26: Hamburger SV 0-0 Borussia Monchengladbach (Bundesliga)
Player to watch: Ransford Konigsdorffer
Ghana international and Hamburg forward Ransford Konigsdorffer is the man to watch this Friday night.
The 24-year-old star bagged a crucial brace last weekend as HSV powered to a 3-2 victory over Union Berlin. Konigsdorffer also rattled the net against Heidenheim a week prior, meaning he boasts three goal contributions from his last two outings.