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Italy will hope to use Wednesday's friendly clash against hosts Luxembourg at Stade de Luxembourg as a springboard to kickstart their revitalisation following their failure to qualify for the 2026 World Cup.
The Italians will be led by caretaker Silvio Baldini, who was appointed after the resignation of Gennaro Gattuso in April, and he will lead a youthful team out against Jeff Strasser's Luxembourg.
Read our prediction, preview and betting tips for the game below, and make sure to check out our today's betting tips page for more of our expert predictions.
Luxembourg vs. Italy key stats
- Italy have scored at least two goals in seven of their past nine fixtures.
- Luxembourg have failed to score in seven of their last 10 games.
- Three of Italy's last six away games have seen at least four goals scored across 90 minutes.
- Luxembourg have conceded at least four goals in two of their three home clashes against Italy.
Luxembourg vs. Italy preview: The beginning of a much-needed reset?
| Luxembourg | vs | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 98th | FIFA Ranking | 12th |
| Laurent Jans (122) | Most Caps | Gianluigi Buffon (176) |
| Gerson Rodrigues (23) | Most Goals | Gigi Riva (35) |
| 872 | Total Caps | 92 |
| 38 | Total Goals | 3 |
| 7 | Uncapped Players | 20 |
Luxembourg come into Wednesday's clash on the back of two wins against Malta, a remarkable feat considering they had only triumphed in two of their prior 19 clashes, a period in which they suffered 13 defeats.
Relegation from the Nations League C was on the line for Die Roten Lowen in those two victories, and their survival would have helped to somewhat soften the blow of finishing last in their World Cup qualifying group with zero points from a possible 18.
The hosts' record against Italy is concerning given they have lost seven and drawn one of their eight meetings with them, and while their most recent result against the visitors was a 1-1 stalemate, that came in a friendly clash in June 2014.
It would be surprising if goalkeeper Tiago Pereira enjoyed a quiet evening, and he will need centre-backs Dirk Carlson and Seid Korac to be at their very best on Wednesday.
It looked as if Italy would qualify for their first World Cup since 2014, especially after they saw past Northern Ireland in the first of two playoff rounds, but a penalty shootout defeat to Bosnia & Herzegovina on March 31 ensured they would miss out on their place on the global stage once again.
Gatuso resigned in April, but he was not the only casualty from the fallout of the game, with Italian FA president Gabriele Gravina also stepping down from his post, and an election is set to take place on June 22 to replace him.
Baldini is unlikely to be considered for a permanent role considering he is 67, but his short tenure could be remembered positively if he can allow the new manager to inherit a winning side ahead of their Euro 2028 qualifying campaign.
The head coach has promised to give fresh faces a chance to impress on the international stage, so perhaps fans will see the likes of Niccolo Fortini named in the starting lineup.
Luxembourg vs. Italy form guide & betting tips
| Luxembourg | vs | Italy |
|---|---|---|
LLLWW |
Form | WWLWL |
| 5 | Goals For | 9 |
| 5 | Goals Against | 5 |
LWLLD |
Friendly Form | LWWDW |
Whispers predicts: Luxembourg 0-4 Italy
There is a significant disparity between the two nations, and the Italians should be expected to win even though they have brought a younger squad, and it is understandable that the bookmakers have overwhelmingly backed the visitors to win at 11/20.
Considering the hosts have failed to score in seven of their last 10 matches, it makes sense to back Luxembourg to Score Under 0.5 Goals at 1/1.
Given Italy have been strong from an offensive perspective, as well as the fact that Luxembourg have struggled, there could be value in predicting Over 3.5 Goals across the match at 12/5.
Italy may have taken a young squad, but they have historically managed to score numerous times against Luxembourg, and there could be an outside chance for Italy to Score Over 3.5 Goals, with the bookmakers pricing such a prediction at 7.
> Luxembourg to Score Under 0.5 Goals at 1/1 (2) | Likelihood: Probable
> Over 3.5 Goals at 12/5 (3.4) | Likelihood: Possible
> Italy to Score Over 3.5 Goals at 6/1 (7) | Likelihood: Outsider