Just a point divides Lorient and Brest in the bottom half of Ligue 1, setting the stage for a highly-charged Breton derby this Sunday, 19 October, where local pride and crucial points are on the line.
Keep close tabs on French Ligue 1 predictions after viewing our key Lorient vs Brest tips below.
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Lorient vs Brest prediction: Visitors to beat the hosts
Key stats
- Lorient are winless in four of their opening seven Ligue 1 games (W2, D1).
- Les Merlus have conceded three goals from corners – the joint-most Ligue 1 goals
- Brest are unbeaten in three straight top-flight outings (W2, D1).
- The Pirates have scored four goals in their last five matches
Correct score prediction: Lorient 2-2 Brest
Lorient's form has dipped alarmingly, with just one victory in their last five league matches. A recent defeat to newly-promoted Paris FC ended their brief two-game unbeaten run, leaving them in a precarious league position after seven rounds.
While Olivier Pantaloni's side have recorded notable wins against Rennes and Monaco, they now face a Brest team riding a three-match undefeated streak. Despite this momentum, Brest have struggled on the road, losing four of their five away fixtures this season.
Both teams have shown inconsistent form, and we anticipate this Breton derby will be decided by the finest of margins, but a draw should be the most probable outcome.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Not much to separate the two sides
- HOME: 29/20 (2.45) – 40%
- DRAW: 23/10 (3.30) – 30.3%
- AWAY: 9/5 (2.80) – 35.7%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Both of Lorient’s victories this campaign have arrived at home, and this should give Pantolini’s men some confidence. The hosts are priced at 6/4 (2.50) – a 40% win probability rate.
On the other hand, Brest make this short journey to Lorient with the hope of claiming a second successive away win. They are favoured to give Lorient a strong fight, given their odds of 17/10 (2.70). This implies a 35.7% chance of victory for the visitors.
Don’t forget to check out more of our football betting tips page after analysing our Lorient vs Brest predictions.
Most recent H2Hs: Brest reclaiming their bragging rights
Brest have won both their recent competitive H2Hs, but it is Lorient with the upper hand in recent matchups, winning four of their previous seven meetings. The visitors have the chance to inflict three consecutive H2H losses on the hosts for the first time in over 50 years.
Europe Friendlies 20/07/24
Lorient
Brest
France Ligue 1 31/03/24
Lorient
Brest
France Ligue 1 20/12/23
Brest
Lorient
France Ligue 1 07/05/23
Lorient
Brest
France Ligue 1 09/10/22
Brest
Lorient
Lorient preview: Can they avoid a third consecutive H2H defeat?
Bandiougou Fadiga, Panos Katseris, Isaak Toure, Trevan Sanusi, Nathaniel Adjei, Demane Karim and Isaak Toure are ruled out with injuries.
Predicted lineup: Mvogo (GK), Meite, Talbi, Faye, Le Bris, Avom, Abergel, Kouassi, Makengo, Aiyegun & Bamba
Last five matches:
- Paris FC 2-0 Lorient (Ligue 1)
- Lorient 3-1 Monaco (Ligue 1)
- Le Havre 1-1 Lorient (Ligue 1)
- Marseille 4-0 Lorient (Ligue 1)
- Lorient 1-7 Lille (Ligue 1)
Brest preview: Back to winning ways?
Lucas Tousart, Mama Balde, Justin Bourgault and Remy Lascary are confirmed absentees for Eric Roy, while star player Romain Del Castillo could also miss out due to muscle discomfort.
Predicted lineup: Majecki (GK), Lala, Chardonnet, Diaz, Locko, Chotard, Magnetti, Ebimbe, Doumbia, Diop & Ajorque
Last five matches:
- Brest 0-0 Nantes (Ligue 1)
- Angers 0-2 Brest (Ligue 1)
- Brest 4-1 Nice (Ligue 1)
- Brest 1-2 Paris FC (Ligue 1)
- Lens 3-1 Brest (Ligue 1)
Player to watch: Romain Del Castillo
With three goals and two assists, Del Castillo is Brest’s most potent attacker this term. After missing the goalless draw against Nantes due to muscle injury, the 29-year-old will be itching to get back on his feet, with all five of his goal contributions coming in his last three club appearances. He could start from the bench if included in the matchday squad.