Unai Emery's journey to try and win a record-extending fifth UEFA Europa League (UEL) title as a manager starts when his Aston Villa side travel to the Stade Pierre-Mauroy to face Lille in the first leg of their last-16 tie on Thursday evening.
With a squad powered by the finances of the Premier League, the Villans will be hopeful of going all the way in the competition, especially after finishing in second place in the league phase, while Lille had to overcome Red Star Belgrade 2-1 on aggregate in a play-off tie to get to this stage.
Read our prediction, preview and betting tips for the game below using odds from bet365, and make sure to check out our Today's betting tips page for more of our free expert UEL predictions!
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Lille vs Aston Villa key stats
- Lille are unbeaten in four games in all competitions (W3, D1).
- By contrast, Villa are winless in four matches across all competitions (D1, L3).
- Villa have also won just once in the previous four H2Hs (D2, L1).
Lille vs Aston Villa preview: Villans to feel frustrated again?
| Lille | vs | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| 6th | Position | 4th |
| 41 | Points | 51 |
| 38 | Goals For | 39 |
| 32 | Goals Against | 34 |
| 8 | Clean Sheets | 8 |
| 8th | Home Rank | 4th |
| 6th | Away Rank | 6th |
Villa dominate almost every stat in terms of both teams' respective domestic leagues, which is even more impressive considering the superior strength of the Premier League in comparison to Ligue 1.
However, there are certain metrics that could help swing the first leg in Lille's favour.
Indeed, the hosts have conceded fewer goals than Villa and kept the same amount of clean sheets, which suggests that the visitors could be vulnerable defensively.
Three of Olivier Giroud's four UEL goals have been the last of the game.
Also, the Villans tend to be better at home than away from Villa Park, and while they have scored more goals than Lille, it is only a one-goal difference.
Taking all of this into account, we would be happy to back the hosts to get a positive result here.
In terms of their respective UEL performances, Villa only scored two more goals (14) than Lille (12) in the league phase too, despite finishing 16 places higher, while they also conceded three fewer goals (six) than Lille's nine.
Aston Villa could be without four regular starters through injury.
The difference was in the points, with Villa collecting 21 in total with seven wins and just one loss, while Lille picked up just 12 after winning four times but also tasting defeat on four occasions.
Still, while the Villans are the superior outfit, recent form suggests that they could struggle in France.
Lille vs Aston Villa form guide & betting tips
| Lille | vs | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| L-W-W-W-D | Form | W-L-D-L-L |
| 7 | Points | 4 |
| 6th | Form Table | 16th |
| 4 | Goals For | 4 |
| 2 | Goals Against | 8 |
Best bookie to bet on Lille vs Aston Villa – bet365
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Whispers predicts: Lille 1-1 Aston Villa
Villa have been installed as the 29/20 favourites with bet365, but the formbook, as well as the other stats in Lille's favour, suggests that we can bet against them here.
As such, we are happy to back a draw at a much more appealing 23/10.
The total goals market could also be worth exploring with just six goals scored in total in Lille's last five games in all competitions.
With this mind, as well as Villa not being in the best of form, under 2.5 goals at 4/5 seems a reasonable bet.
In terms of potential goalscorers, Olivier Giroud is a player that knows Premier League opposition well, and he boasts four goals already in this competition.
Considering that he is not always a regular starter, 13/2 for him to score the last goal of the match and have the final say could be worth a punt.
> Under 2.5 goals at 4/5 | Likelihood: Probable
> Match result - Draw at 23/10 | Likelihood: Possible
> Olivier Giroud to score last at 13/2 | Likelihood: Outsider