With hosts Lech Poznan hoping to leapfrog Mainz 05 in the Conference League table, Thursday's clash at Enea Stadion could be crucial in the race to secure a placement in the top eight.
The home side are 16th in the table with six points having beaten Lausanne 2-0 on November 27, and they are only three points behind their upcoming opponents, who are fifth following their 1-0 loss against Universitatea Craiova last time out in Europe.
Contents
- 1 Lech Poznan vs Mainz 05 prediction: Opportunity to punish the visitors
- 2 Pre-game odds and win probability: Mainz 05 predicted to win by the bookmakers
- 3 Most recent H2Hs: First ever meeting between the sides
- 4 Lech Poznan preview: Strong form ahead of Thursday
- 5 Mainz 05 preview: Stranded in losses
- 6 Player to watch: Nadiem Amiri
Lech Poznan vs Mainz 05 prediction: Opportunity to punish the visitors
Key stats
- Lech Poznan have scored at least two goals in seven of their past nine games in all competitions.
- Mainz have failed to find the back of the net in their last three matches.
- The visitors have kept just one clean sheet in their 11 most recent fixtures.
Correct score prediction: Lech Poznan 1-0 Mainz 05
Lech Poznan's offensive record has been remarkable recently, while their opponents have proven to be consistently vulnerable regardless of opponent.
Mainz's attack has also faltered, so the Polish hosts will be confident that they can get the better of the Bundesliga visitors.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Mainz 05 predicted to win by the bookmakers
- HOME: 19/10 (2.9) – 34.5%
- DRAW: 5/2 (3.5) – 28.6%
- AWAY: 5/4 (2.25) – 44.4%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Mainz 05 are the expected winner of this clash, with a probability of 44.4%, but the bookmakers have given Lech Poznan a sizeable 34.5% chance of victory.
You can find all our predictions for today's games on our football betting tips page.
Most recent H2Hs: First ever meeting between the sides
It should come as no surprise that Thursday will be the first meeting between the two clubs considering Mainz's current European campaign is just the third in their history.
The match will also be Mainz boss Urs Fischer's first as boss, but he gained experience of Conference League, Europa League and Champions League football when he was manager of Union Berlin.
Lech Poznan preview: Strong form ahead of Thursday
Lech Poznan's form has been strong of late, with the club hoping to win for a fourth time in six matches when they take on Mainz, and avoiding defeat would extend their undefeated streak to six games.
With midfielders Gisli Thordarson and Filip Jagiello both ruled out due to injury issues, fans can expect to see Antoni Kozubal partner Pablo Rodriguez in a double pivot.
Predicted lineup: Mrozek (GK), Pereira, Monka, Skrzypczak, Gurgul, Kozubal, Rodriguez, Gholizadeh, Palma, Bengtsson & Ishak
Last five results:
- Cracovia 2-2 Lech Poznan
- Piast Gliwice 0-2 Lech Poznan
- Wisla Plock 0-0 Lech Poznan
- Lech Poznan 2-0 Lausanne
- Lech Poznan 4-1 Radomiak
Mainz 05 preview: Stranded in losses
Mainz have suffered eight defeats in their last 12 games, while they only managed to win twice in that time, with none of those victories coming in their past five.
It is difficult to know for certain which players Fischer will pick, but perhaps supporters will see midfielders Nadiem Amiri and Kaishu Sano start together considering no other players in the squad have played more minutes than the pair this season.
Predicted lineup: Batz (GK), Da Costa, Hanche-Olsen, Leitsch, Widmer, Sano, Amiri, Mwene, Hollerbach, Lee & Weiper
Last five results:
- Mainz 05 0-1 Borussia Monchengladbach
- Freiburg 4-0 Mainz 05
- Universitatea Craiova 1-0 Mainz 05
- Mainz 05 1-1 Hoffenheim
- Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 Mainz 05
Player to watch: Nadiem Amiri
Mainz's campaign has been poor, but midfielder Nadiem Amiri has at least been a bright spark in 2025-26, especially as he has unexpectedly managed to contribute in the final third.
No other player at the club has more goals in all competitions (five), and while he has not scored in his last seven games, he will primarily be asked to break up play and protect the backline on Thursday.