Two bottom-half teams meet in the Italian top flight on Sunday. Our Monza vs Lecce prediction and Serie A betting tips consider whether the struggling hosts can claim a much-needed victory.
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Monza vs Lecce prediction: Visitors to claim narrow road win
Key stats
- Our Monza vs Lecce betting tips take into account that 92% of Monza home games this term in Serie A have produced under 3.5 goals.
- 67% of Lecce’s away games have done likewise.
- These are the two lowest scoring teams in Serie A, with Lecce (18) the only team with fewer goals than Monza (21).
Correct score prediction: Monza 0-1 Lecce
These are two of the weaker teams in Serie A, but Lecce look to have a little bit more in the locker than their opponents.
They’ve avoided defeat in four of their last six league fixtures, while Monza look very short on confidence, following a four-game losing streak. The visitors may edge it.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Bookies struggling to call it
- HOME: 17/10 (2.70) – 37.0%
- DRAW: 11/5 (3.20) – 31.3%
- AWAY: 13/8 (2.63) – 38.1%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The visitors are the very slight favourites according to the Monza vs Lecce odds, with an implied probability of 38.1% that they win this match.
They head into it following a 0-0 home draw against Bologna last weekend.
As for Monza, they were hammered 5-1 at Lazio in their last match, with Stefano Sensi’s penalty little more than a consolation.
For more from the upcoming matches in Europe, today’s football tips look at some of the best picks.
Most recent H2Hs: Lecce unbeaten in seven
Our Monza vs Lecce prediction suggests the away team will be able to extend a seven-game unbeaten run against this opposition.
All 10 meetings this century have produced three or fewer goals in total.
Italy Serie A 15/12/24
Lecce
Monza
Italy Serie A 27/04/24
Lecce
Monza
Italy Serie A 17/09/23
Monza
Lecce
Italy Serie A 28/05/23
Monza
Lecce
Italy Serie A 11/09/22
Lecce
Monza
Monza preview: Six injury concerns for the hosts
Injuries are adding to Monza’s woes and they are expected to be missing Gianluca Caprari, Luca Caldirola, Matteo Pessina, Roberto Gagliardini and Samuele Birindelli here. Stefano Turati is a doubt.
Predicted Lineup: Pizzignacco (GK), Lekovic, Palacios, Izzo, Pereira, Urbanski, Bianco, Kyriakopoulos, Mota, Ciurria & Ganvoula
Italy Serie A 11/05/25 W Udinese 1 Monza 2 Italy Serie A 04/05/25 L Atalanta 4 Monza 0 Italy Serie A 27/04/25 L Juventus 2 Monza 0 Italy Serie A 19/04/25 L Napoli 1 Monza 0 Italy Serie A 12/04/25 L Venezia 1 Monza 0
Lecce preview: Gaspar nearing fitness
Key defender Kialonda Gaspar is nearing fitness again, but remains a major doubt for this game. Lameck Banda and Filip Marchwinski have also been ruled out due to injuries.
Predicted Lineup: Falcone (GK), Guilbert, Jean, Baschirotto, Gallo, Pierret, Ramadani, Pierotti, Helgason, Morente & Krstovic
Italy Serie A 11/05/25 D Verona 1 Lecce 1 Italy Serie A 03/05/25 L Napoli 1 Lecce 0 Italy Serie A 27/04/25 D Atalanta 1 Lecce 1 Italy Serie A 19/04/25 L Como 3 Lecce 0 Italy Serie A 12/04/25 L Juventus 2 Lecce 1
Player to watch – Nikola Krstovic
If anyone is going to find a breakthrough here, Nikola Krstovic looks the most likely candidate. He has scored seven goals in 24 Serie A appearances this term, more than anyone else who could feature in this game.
Krstovic striking in the first half
The 24-year-old has done most of his damage before the interval. 71% of his Serie A goals have come in the first half, with three goals coming in the 15 minutes immediately before the break.