Genoa sit seven points and four places above Friday night's guests Lecce in the Serie A table but we are predicting a tight and tense 90 minutes between the two clubs at the Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
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Genoa vs Lecce prediction: A low-scoring affair?
Key Stats
- Under 2.5 goals have been produced in 64% of Lecce's away games in the league so far this season.
- Genoa have won each of their last four home games against Lecce in league and cup.
- Andrea Pinamonti has eight goals in Serie A this season, five more goals than his nearest teammate Koni De Winter.
Correct score prediction: Genoa 1-0 Lecce
Genoa are scoring an average of 1.07 goals per game in its own backyard this season, while Lecce score an average of just 0.64 goals on its travels, where it is also averaging just 0.79 points per game.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Genoa the favourite
- HOME: 21/20 (2.05) – 48.8%
- DRAW: 21/10 (3.10) – 32.3%
- AWAY: 15/4 (4.75) – 21.1%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Genoa are the expected winner of this game with a probability of 48.8% but we are expecting a close and competitive 90 minutes between the pair on Friday night.
You can find all our predictions for today's games on our football betting tips page.
Most recent H2Hs: Genoa lead
Friday's hosts have picked up two wins, two draws and suffered one defeat from their last five encounters with Lecce in Serie A. The pair played out a goalless draw when they met for January's reverse league fixture.
Italy Serie A 05/01/25
Lecce
Genoa
Italy Serie A 28/01/24
Genoa
Lecce
Italy Serie A 22/09/23
Lecce
Genoa
Italy Serie A 19/07/20
Genoa
Lecce
Italy Serie A 08/12/19
Lecce
Genoa
Genoa preview: Picked up a point
Genoa made the trip to Cagliari last time out and fell behind in the 18th minute to a goal from Nicolas Viola.
Former Burnley and West Ham winger Maxwel Cornet scored early in the second 45 to get Genoa back on level terms, and the visitors held firm to secure a decent point on the road.
Caleb Ekuban, Mattia Bani, Mario Balotelli, Morten Thorsby and Vitor Oliveira are all doubts for Friday's match due to injury.
Predicted lineup: Leali (GK), Martín, Vasquez, De Winter, Norton-Cuffy, Badelj, Frendrup, Miretti, Cornet, Ekuban & Ekhator
Italy Serie A 14/03/25
W
Lecce
1
Genoa
2
Italy Serie A 07/03/25
D
Cagliari
1
Genoa
1
Italy Serie A 02/03/25
D
Empoli
1
Genoa
1
Italy Serie A 22/02/25
L
Inter Milan
1
Genoa
0
Italy Serie A 17/02/25
W
Venezia
0
Genoa
2
Lecce preview: Blew a two-goal lead
Lecce were left very frustrated at the final whistle last weekend as they suffered a 3-2 defeat at home to AC Milan.
The worst part about the loss was the fact that Lecce had established a 2-0 lead heading into the final 22 minutes thanks to a brace from Nikola Krstovic, only to concede three times and lose the game late on.
The visitors could be without the likes of Jeppe Corfitzen, Youssef Maleh, Filip Marchwinski and Joan Gonzalez for the trip to Genoa as each is suffering from an injury.
Predicted lineup: Falcone (GK), Guilbert, Baschirotto, Gallo, Jean, Coulibaly, Helgason, Berisha, Morente, Krstovic & Pierotti
Italy Serie A 14/03/25
L
Genoa
2
Lecce
1
Italy Serie A 08/03/25
L
AC Milan
3
Lecce
2
Italy Serie A 28/02/25
L
Fiorentina
1
Lecce
0
Italy Serie A 21/02/25
L
Udinese
1
Lecce
0
Italy Serie A 16/02/25
D
Monza
0
Lecce
0
Player to watch: Andrea Pinamonti
Andrea Pinamonti is enjoying his first season back at the club since he left back in 2020.
The Italian striker has scored eight times in Serie A this season, making him Genoa's top goalscorer by some distance. The 25-year-old has scored two goals in his last five league games for the club and is due another goal soon, possibly this Friday night against Lecce.
Pinamonti top scores for Genoa
Pinamonti's best season in front of goal arrived during the 2021/22 campaign during a loan spell at Empoli in which he found the back of the net 13 times. What's to stop the forward beating that total this season with Genoa?