Spain vs Italy Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips 15/06/2023

Spain
15/06/23 - 19:45

Finished

2

-

1

Italy

Spain - Italy

UEFA Nations League - Grolsch Veste Stadium

2nd Round

* Betting odds were correct at the time of publication but are subject to change.

Spain vs Italy: Top Two Betting Tips

Here are our Nations League betting tips for Thursday's Semi-Final between Spain and Italy. These two countries know each other very well and are two of the most successful international teams of all time, so you can see just why we're getting excited for their latest encounter. Whoever wins this game will go through to the Nations League Final this weekend where they will either face the Netherlands or Croatia.

Draw

  • Three of the last six meetings between these two countries have ended in stalemates.
  • Spain have drawn two of their last five international matches, winning just once during that period.
  • Italy have only managed to win one of their last three matches and failed to beat Spain when the pair last met in this competition in 2021.

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Under 2.5 goals have been produced in five of the last seven head-to-heads between Spain and Italy.
  • Three of Spain's last five outings have featured under 2.5 goals.
  • Under 2.5 goals have been scored in four of Italy's last six international matches.

Spain vs Italy Odds and Probabilities

Head to Head

06/10/21

UEFA Nations League NAL

Italy

Italy

Spain

Spain

1

2

06/07/21

Euro 2021 Euro2020

Italy

Italy

Spain

Spain

1

1

02/09/17

Europe - World Cup Qualifying Europe

Spain

Spain

Italy

Italy

3

0

06/10/16

Europe - World Cup Qualifying Europe

Italy

Italy

Spain

Spain

1

1

27/06/16

Euro 2016 Euro2020

Italy

Italy

Spain

Spain

2

0

Last Five - Spain

19/11/23

Euro 2024 Qualifying Euro

Georgia

Georgia

Spain

Spain

1

3

W

16/11/23

Euro 2024 Qualifying Euro

Cyprus

Cyprus

Spain

Spain

1

3

W

15/10/23

Euro 2024 Qualifying Euro

Norway

Norway

Spain

Spain

0

1

W

12/10/23

Euro 2024 Qualifying Euro

Scotland

Scotland

Spain

Spain

0

2

W

12/09/23

Euro 2024 Qualifying Euro

Cyprus

Cyprus

Spain

Spain

0

6

W

Last Five - Italy

20/11/23

Euro 2024 Qualifying Euro

Ukraine

Ukraine

Italy

Italy

0

0

D

17/11/23

Euro 2024 Qualifying Euro

North Macedonia

North Macedonia

Italy

Italy

2

5

W

17/10/23

Euro 2024 Qualifying Euro

England

England

Italy

Italy

3

1

L

14/10/23

Euro 2024 Qualifying Euro

Malta

Malta

Italy

Italy

0

4

W

12/09/23

Euro 2024 Qualifying Euro

Ukraine

Ukraine

Italy

Italy

1

2

W

Let's take a look at the latest markets and odds ahead of Spain vs Italy.

Spain odds: 13/10 (2.30) – 43.5%

Draw odds: 9/4 (3.25) – 30.8%

Italy odds: 41/17 (3.41) – 29.3%

*all odds provided are the best price at the time of publication and come from various bookmakers and therefore the probabilities won't always add up to 100%.

Spain are the expected winners of this game with a probability of 43.5%, but we will that this game could go either way as both nations have been guilty of being hit-and-miss over the last year or so.  If you want more football betting tips on this game then we suggest checking out the Both Teams to Score market. If you fancy BTTS on Thursday night then you can get odds of 21/20 (2.05) which has a probability of 48.8%, but if you want to back BTTS – No then the odds currently stand at 5/6 (1.83) with a probability of 54.5%.

Spain vs Italy Lineups and Last Match

Spain

Spain secured a 1-0 win away at neighbours Portugal in their last Nations League group game thanks to a late strike from Morata. Azpilicueta, Ramos, Pique, Busquets, Koke, Thiago, Torres and Sarabia are some of the familiar faces not to have been selected for Spain this time around. The likes of Ramos, Pique and Busquets have all retired from international football which has made room for the likes of Robin Le Normand who is hoping to make his international debut this week.

Predicted Lineup – Unai Simón (GK), Carvajal, Le Normand, Laporte, Alba, Rodri, Zubimendi, Gavi, Asensio, Olmo & Morata

Italy

Goals from Raspadori and Dimarco saw Italy run out 2-0 winners away at Hungary in their last Nations League match. That result should have given the Italians a much-needed confidence boost following back-to-back defeats against England and Austria. Florenzi, Emerson, Locatelli, Tonali, Berardi and Scamacca have not been called up for the latest squad through injury or poor form and the only uncapped player in the squad is goalkeeper Vicario who plays for Empoli.

Predicted Lineup – Donnarumma (GK), Di Lorenzo, Acerbi, Bastoni, Dimarco, Barella, Jorginho, Verratti, Chiesa, Retegui & Pellegrini

Starting Lineups

Spain

Spain
4-2-3-1
22
Jesus Navas
es
14
Aymeric Laporte
es
18
Jordi Alba
es
16
Rodri
es
19
Rodrigo Moreno
es
9
Gavi
es
10
Yeremy Pino
es
7
Alvaro Morata
es
Substitutes
21
Dani Olmo
es
10
Marco Asensio
es
8
Fabian Ruiz
es
13
David Raya
es
11
Sergio Canales
es
4
Nacho
es
17
Juan Bernat
es
12
Ansu Fati
es

Italy

Italy
4-3-3
1
Gianluigi Donnarumma
it
13
Rafael Toloi
it
19
Leonardo Bonucci
it
15
Francesco Acerbi
it
8
Jorginho
it
4
Leonardo Spinazzola
it
17
Ciro Immobile
it
Substitutes
11
Degnand Wilfried Gnonto
it
6
Marco Verratti
it
14
Federico Chiesa
it
10
Lorenzo Pellegrini
it
16
Bryan Cristante
it

*Lineups are usually announced 1hr before kick-off

Player to Watch: Gavi

Barcelona's 18-year-old midfielder is seen as a huge part of the future of the Spanish national team, a player to build a side around.

The youngster put in some very impressive performances at the recent World Cup and now has 19-caps and 3-goals to his name for the Spanish senior side.

Gavi has made his way into the Barcelona first-team over the last two seasons, playing 49 times in all competitions during the 2022/23 campaign and scoring 3-goals. This teenage playmaker could make all the difference on Thursday night and we expect Gavi to have a big impact against the Italians,

spain vs italy


Avatar of James Kelbrick
James Kelbrick

A lifelong Evertonian, James started writing for an Everton fan site in the mid-2000s and then developed his own blog covering football transfers from across Europe's big leagues before becoming a regular match preview and betting tips writer for Biggest Free Bets. James moved to Free Super Tips next, and then Racing Post, where he worked as a full-time writer for a few years, taking on extra responsibilities such as creating the schedule and assigning out work. Following that, James wrote for a number of websites including Fore Bet before joining Football Whispers in December 2020.