Spain and Italy clash in Group B at Euro 2024 on Thursday with both sides hoping to build on opening victories. Our Spain vs Italy prediction considers whether either side can secure their place in the knockout stage.
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Spain vs Italy prediction: La Roja to win by one
Key stats
- Our Spain vs Italy betting tips take into account that La Roja are in good form in front of goal, scoring three or more in six of their last seven internationals.
- Including a shootout win in the UEFA Nations League final last summer, Spain have won all of their last nine competitive games.
- Both teams have scored in seven of Italy’s last nine competitive fixtures.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Spain favourites to record second win
- SPAIN: 11/10 (2.10) – 47.6%
- DRAW: 9/4 (3.25) – 30.8%
- ITALY: 5/2 (3.50) – 28.6%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Luis de la Fuente’s side are the favourites according to the Spain vs Italy odds with an implied probability of 47.6% that they win this one.
Spain were impressive in their opening game, with goals from Alvaro Morata, Fabian Ruiz and Dani Carvajal before the interval securing a 3-0 win.
It was a bumpier ride for Italy who fell behind inside a minute against Albania, but they recovered well with goals from Alessandro Bastoni and Nicolo Barella securing a 2-1 win.
For more of the latest picks, today’s free football betting tips take a look at some of the best bets from this week’s action.
Last five H2Hs: Italy hoping for repeat of Euro 2020 success
Our Spain vs Italy prediction suggests it’ll be a fourth win in five meetings for La Roja who have had the better of the recent meetings overall. However it was Italy who triumphed in the biggest of those games, with a penalty shootout victory after a 1-1 draw in the Euro 2020 semi-final.
Euro 2024 20/06/24
Spain
Italy
UEFA Nations League 15/06/23
Spain
Italy
UEFA Nations League 06/10/21
Italy
Spain
Euro 2021 06/07/21
Italy
Spain
Europe - World Cup Qualifying 02/09/17
Spain
Italy
Spain preview: Unchanged eleven possible
Luis de la Fuente may simply pick the same eleven that excelled against Croatia. Aymeric Laporte remains an injury doubt but otherwise he should have a full squad to pick from.
Predicted Lineup: Simon (GK), Cucurella, Nacho, Le Normand, Carvajal, Rodri, Fabian Ruiz, Williams, Pedri, Lamine Yamal & Morata
UEFA Nations League A 08/09/24 W Switzerland 1 Spain 4 UEFA Nations League A 05/09/24 D Serbia 0 Spain 0 Euro 2024 14/07/24 W England 1 Spain 2 Euro 2024 09/07/24 W France 1 Spain 2 Euro 2024 05/07/24 W Germany 1 Spain 2
Italy preview: No major issues for Spalletti
After a composed victory over Albania, Italy could also go with the same players in their second game. They have no significant injury issues.
Predicted Lineup: Donnarumma (GK), Dimarco, Calafiori, Bastoni, Di Lorenzo, Barella, Jorginho, Frattesi, Pellegrini, Scamacca & Chiesa
UEFA Nations League A 09/09/24 W Israel 1 Italy 2 UEFA Nations League A 06/09/24 W France 1 Italy 3 Euro 2024 29/06/24 L Switzerland 2 Italy 0 Euro 2024 24/06/24 D Croatia 1 Italy 1 Euro 2024 20/06/24 L Spain 1 Italy 0
Player to watch – Fabian Ruiz
The standout performer for Spain on matchday one was midfielder Fabian Ruiz who scored and assisted against Croatia. He didn’t have his most convincing season with PSG with only one goal and three assists in Ligue 1 but two of those goal contributions came in his final two games so he’s hitting form at just the right moment from a Spain perspective.
Fabian brings control in midfield
While Fabian Ruiz has his critics in Spain, he was fiercely defended by his national team boss this week and is a classy operator at his best. He completed 90.1% of his passes in Ligue 1 this term, averaging 0.9 key passes per game.
The latest Tweets from each camp
Spain
❤️ Today the 𝗥𝗘𝗗𝗦 play in 𝗥𝗘𝗗 #VamosEspaña | #EURO2024 pic.twitter.com/bbAYF8eqY1
— Spanish Football (@SpainIsFootball) June 20, 2024
Italy
Here we come 🔜
Let's goooo, lads! 💪#ESPITA #Azzurri #VivoAzzurro pic.twitter.com/Kyn160kka6— Italy ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (@Azzurri_En) June 20, 2024
