The New Balance Arena in Bergamo will host Italy vs Northern Ireland on Thursday, as both sides battle for a place in the UEFA play-off final and move one step closer to the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
The winner of this high-stakes encounter will face either Wales or Bosnia-Herzegovina for a spot in the finals.
While the pedigree of the four-time world champions is beyond question, Italy will be determined to avoid a repeat of past disappointments, having suffered painful exits against Sweden and North Macedonia in their previous two World Cup qualifying campaigns.
Read our Italy vs Northern Ireland prediction, preview and betting tips. You can also check out our Today's betting tips page for more of our expert predictions.
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Italy vs Northern Ireland key stats
- Italy have won six out of their last seven games.
- Each of the five matches between the two sides has produced fewer than five cards.
- Each of the last six Northern Ireland matches has produced under 10.5 corners.
Italy vs Northern Ireland preview: Can Azzurri pull off win in Bergamo?
| Italy | vs | Northern Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd(WC qualification, Group I) | Position | 3rd(WC qualification, Group A) |
| 18 | Points | 9 |
| 21 | Goals For | 7 |
| 12 | Goals Against | 6 |
| 4 | Clean Sheets | 2 |
| 2nd | Home Rank | 3rd |
| 2nd | Away Rank | 2nd |
Italy began their World Cup qualifying campaign with a heavy 3-0 defeat to Norway, a result that ultimately led to the dismissal of Luciano Spalletti.
Under Gennaro Gattuso, however, the Azzurri showed significant improvement, putting together a run of six consecutive victories, including four clean sheets.
Italy are undefeated in their last five matches against Northern Ireland.
That momentum was halted by a crushing 4-1 loss to Norway, a game in which Erling Haaland scored twice, effectively ending their hopes of securing top spot in the group.
The defeat sparked a strong reaction from supporters, prompting Gattuso to request that this fixture be moved to Bergamo instead of San Siro.
Northern Ireland last faced Italy five years ago, holding them to a 0-0 draw at Windsor Park — a result that denied the visitors automatic qualification for the 2022 World Cup.
Italy have scored first in six of their last seven matches.
Although they finished third in Group A of the European qualifiers, they secured a play-off spot thanks to their UEFA Nations League performance.
Goals have been hard to come by for Northern Ireland, with the side scoring more than twice in just one of their last six matches.
The visitors will be without two key full-backs for this clash, with captain Conor Bradley and the experienced Jamal Lewis both sidelined.
Italy vs Northern Ireland form guide & betting tips
| Italy | vs | Northern Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| W-W-W-W-D | Form | L-W-L-L-W |
| 14 | Goals For | 4 |
| 9 | Goals Against | 5 |
| W-W-L | World Cup qualification form | L-L-W |
Whispers Predicts: Italy 3-0 Northern Ireland
Despite the setback against Norway, Gattuso’s men remain in strong form and are likely to come out on top in this encounter.
Italy boast an excellent historical record against Northern Ireland, and recent trends suggest they are both scoring freely and keeping things tight at the back. As such, a 3-0 win at 7.5 could be a decent shout.
The hosts have not conceded a goal to Northern Ireland in their previous five meetings, making BTTS – No at 1.6 an appealing option.
Moise Kean has found the net four times in this qualifying campaign and is backed to score at 2.05.
> Over 2.5 goals at 1.8 | Likelihood: Probable
> Correct score: Italy 3-0 Northern Ireland at 7.5 | Likelihood: Outsider
> Moise Kean to score anytime at 2.05 | Likelihood: Possible
> BTTS - No at 1.6 | Likelihood: Possible