In a match that falls under the must-win category for Gli Azzurri, Italy’s players will give their all to get a vital win over poor Moldova on 9 June. The match itself will be held at the legendary Stadio Citta del Tricolore, which means Gianluigi Donnarumma and his colleagues will enjoy a nice home-field advantage. Will that be enough for the three points? The answer is in our key Italy vs Moldova betting tips below.
Check out some of our key football betting tips today on our designated page.
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Italy vs Moldova prediction: Italy to get back on track
Key Stats
- We saw over 2.5 goals in Italy’s last World Cup qualifier.
- Italy won all five official meetings against Moldova.
- Moldova have the worst defensive record in group I, with eight goals conceded throughout two group-stage games.
Correct score prediction: Italy 2-1 Moldova
Shaking the rustiness aside will take some time. We believe Italy will get up from the knock they received against Norway, but we doubt the fans will see a compelling victory. A 2-1 score is what they will likely see, as that’s how one of the last two meetings ended.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Absolute favourites Italy!
- HOME: 3/50 (1.06) – 94.3%
- DRAW: 17/2 (9.50) – 10.5%
- AWAY: 31/1 (32.0) – 3.1%
*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The visitors’ only hope is that a miracle happens at Stadio Citta del Tricolore this week. The odds behind a Moldova win are valued at 31/1 (32.0), which indicates a laughably low 3.1% shot at the three points. Needless to say, Italy are the expected winners, with a wonderful 94.3% chance of scooping a win.
Most recent H2Hs: Moldova don’t have the answers
International Match 07/10/20
Italy
Moldova
As you can see from the head-to-head data, Gli Azzurri have never even shared the spoils with Moldova.
Italy team news and form: Luciano Spalletti will change things
Surely, trailing three goals against any team is unacceptable for Italy’s fans. Which is why we believe Gli Azzurri’s manager will leave some of the starters against Norway on the bench this time. Primarily, Nicolo Rovella will likely be given a rest following his inconsistent defending against Erling Haaland and his colleagues.
Predicted lineup: Donnaruma (GK), Bastoni, Coppola, Di Lorenzo, Zappacosta, Barella, Frattesi, Tonali, Udogie, Raspadori & Retegui
UEFA Nations League 23/03/25
D
Germany
3
Italy
3
UEFA Nations League 20/03/25
L
Germany
2
Italy
1
UEFA Nations League A 17/11/24
L
France
3
Italy
1
UEFA Nations League A 14/11/24
W
Belgium
0
Italy
1
UEFA Nations League A 14/10/24
W
Israel
1
Italy
4
Moldova team news and form: Bad news for Serghei Clescenco
Coach Clescenco will not be able to use one of his key players’ services. We are talking about defender-in-chief Maxim Cojocaru, who saw the red in the match against Estonia on 25 March.
Predicted lineup: Kozhukar (GK), Puscas, Craciun, Baboglo, Reabciuk, Motpan, Rata, Postolachi, Caimacov, Bodisteanu & Nicolaescu
Europe - World Cup Qualifying 25/03/25
L
Estonia
3
Moldova
2
Europe - World Cup Qualifying 22/03/25
L
Norway
5
Moldova
0
International Match 19/11/24
D
Gibraltar
1
Moldova
1
UEFA Nations League D 16/11/24
W
Andorra
0
Moldova
1
UEFA Nations League D 13/10/24
L
Malta
1
Moldova
0
Player to watch: Gianluigi Donnarumma
PSG superstar Donnaruma is the player to watch in our professional Italy vs Moldova prediction, as he is without a doubt one of the biggest goalkeeping stars in Europe right now. He’s the captain of the team, and it goes without saying that his place among the starting XI is secured.
Safe-hands Donnarumma will be back
Despite conceding so many goals against Norway, we expect to see the very best version of Donnarumma this week. Italy needs this. The captain must step up and be a decisive factor, as Moldova have nothing to lose – they will attack from the start.