Italy vs England Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips 23/03/2023

* Betting odds were correct at the time of publication but are subject to change.

FW Predictions for Italy vs England

It's time for our Euro 2024 predictions ahead of Thursday's big game between Italy and England. England kick-off their qualification process for Euro 2024 with their toughest match of the group stage, away at Italy. We're expecting a tight and tense 90-minutes between two very defensively-minded sides and while England head into the game as the slight favourite with the bookmakers, the Italians have had the better of Southgate's men in recent years.


Our first Italy vs England prediction regards the end result. Four of the last five meetings between these two great footballing nations have ended in stalemates after 90-minutes, and we're predicting more of the same on Thursday. England haven't been in action since losing to France in the World Cup and Italy's last match, back in November, saw them lose 2-0 away at Austria, and we don't see either team getting off to a winning start to the Euro 2024 qualifiers.

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Under 2.5 Goals

Our second Italy vs England prediction concerns the total goals scored during the match. We're expecting a very tight and tense 90-minutes at the Diego Maradona Stadium, as so often proves to be the case when these two countries clash. Each of the last five competitive and non-competitive meetings between Italy and England have ended with under 2.5 goals being scored. Fewer than three goals have also been produced in four of Italy's last six international matches, so you can see why we're expecting a low-scoring night in Naples.

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Italy vs England Odds

Let's take a look at the latest markets and odds ahead of Italy vs England.

Italy odds: 2/1 (3.00) – 33.3%

Draw odds: 9/4 (3.25) – 16.7%

England odds: 13/8 (2.63) – 38.1%

*all odds provided are the best price at the time of publication and come from various bookmakers and therefore the probabilities won't always add up to 100%.

As you can see, there isn't much between the odds as things stand but England are the slight favourite. If you want more football betting tips on this Euro 2024 qualifier then why not check out the First Goalscorer market? England's Harry Kane is the favourite to score first in this game at 9/2 (5.50) which has a probability of 18.2%, while Italy's Matro Retegui is priced at 15/2 (8.50) and that has a probability of 11.8%.

Italy vs England Lineups


The Italians have called-up a number of inexperienced players for their latest squad with Marco Carnesecchi, Wladimiro Falcone and Alessandro Buongiorno all hoping to make their international debut this week. Mancini's side are without the likes of Alessandro Bastoni, Alessandro Florenzi, Giorgio Chiellini, Manuel Locatelli, Giacomo Raspadori, Ciro Immobile, Andrea Belotti, Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernardeschi, and there is no space for Moise Kean either.

Predicted Lineup – Donnarumma (GK), Toloi, Bonucci, Acerbi, Di Lorenzo, Barella, Cristante, Verratti, Spinazzola, Raspadori & Retegui


Brentford striker Ivan Toney has rightfully been called up to Southgate's latest England squad and will be hoping to make his debut against Italy on Thursday. Notable absentees from the England squad include Nick Pope, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Mason Mount, James Ward-Prowse, Marcus Rashford and Raheem Sterling. James Maddison is in the squad and will be hoping to add to his 1-cap after impressing for Leicester in recent weeks, while Kalvin Phillips gets a call-up despite not featuring much for Man City this season.

Predicted Lineup – Pickford (GK), James, Stones, Maguire, Chilwell, Henderson, Rice, Bellingham, Saka, Kane & Grealish

Player to Watch: Jordan Pickford

If this game is going to end in a low-scoring draw as we have predicted, then Everton's Jordan Pickford could end up being the man to earn England a share of the spoils.

Pickford has been in good form for the Toffees since Dyche took charge and never seems to let Southgate down when he is called upon by his country.

England might be the favourite with the bookmakers this Thursday but Italy have the home advantage and have a good record against their guests, so we expect Mancini's men to take the game to their opponents.

The England defence will come under pressure in this game and we're going to need Pickford to be at his best both in terms of shot-stopping and his passing, setting up counter-attackers with balls out wide to the likes of Saka, Foden and Grealish.

Italy vs England – Q&A

italy vs england

  • Who are the favourite to win? – There isn't much between the two sides according to the latest odds.
  • What was the score when these two teams last met? – Italy 1-0 England (Nations League).
  • What time is kick-off? – 19:45 GMT, 20:45 CET.
  • What group are the teams in? – Qualifying Group C.
  • Where is the game being played? – Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (Napoli).
  • Who is the referee? – Srđan Jovanović