Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan prediction, odds & betting tips – 13/03/2024

13/03/24 - 20:00

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Atletico Madrid - Inter Milan

UEFA Champions League - Civitas Metropolitano

4th Round

Here are our Champions League predictions for Wednesday night's second leg between Atletico Madrid and Inter Milan.

The guests from Italy take a narrow 1-0 lead into what is expected to be another close and competitive 90 minutes between the two clubs at the Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano in Madrid.

Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan predictions: A draw would be enough for the Italians

Key Stats

• Under 2.5 goals have been produced in each of the previous three meetings between Atletico Madrid and Inter Milan.
• The hosts have only lost once at home in all competitions this season, while Inter Milan are yet to lose on the road in league or cup.
• Alvaro Morate top scores for Atletico Madrid this season with 20 goals in all competitions, including five in the Champions League.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Inter the slight favourite

• HOME: 2/1 (3.00) – 33.3%
• DRAW: 12/5 (3.60) – 27.8%
• AWAY: 19/12 (2.58) – 38.7%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

Inter Milan are the expected winners of this game with a probability of 38.7%, but we are predicting a tight and tense 90 minutes between the two clubs.

Atletico Madrid head into Wednesday's match on the back of two wins, one draw and three defeats in their last six matches, while Inter Milan have won each of their last six matches in league and cup.

For more football betting tips on the game, check out the Both Teams to Score market. You can back BTTS in this game at 9/10 (1.90) which has a probability of 52.6%, while a bet on BTTS – No has odds of 21/20 (2.05) with a probability of 48.8%.

Last five H2Hs: Only met three times before

UEFA Champions League 20/02/24

Inter Milan

1

Atletico Madrid

0

Elite Club Friendlies 11/08/18

Atletico Madrid

0

Inter Milan

1

Inter Milan lead the head-to-head record between these two clubs with two wins to Atletico Madrid's one with a goal from former Stoke City striker Marko Arnautovic proving enough for Inter to claim a 1-0 win last month.

Team news and form guide

Atletico Madrid: Strongest at home

The hosts have injury concerns over Pablo Barrios, Antoine Griezmann, José Giménez, Cesar Azpilicueta and Thomas Lemar ahead of the crucial second leg against Inter Milan this week.

Predicted lineup: Oblak (GK), Paulista, Hermoso, Witsel, Saúl, Koke, De Paul, Llorente, Morata, Depay & Lino 

Spain La Liga 08/02/25

D

Real Madrid

1

Atletico Madrid

1

Spain Copa del Rey 04/02/25

W

Getafe

0

Atletico Madrid

5

Spain La Liga 01/02/25

W

Mallorca

0

Atletico Madrid

2

UEFA Champions League 29/01/25

W

FC Salzburg

1

Atletico Madrid

4

Spain La Liga 25/01/25

D

Villarreal

1

Atletico Madrid

1

Inter Milan: Looking unstoppable right now

Marko Arnautovic, Carlos Augusto, Stefano Sensi and Juan Cuadrado could all miss the trip to Madrid this weekend through injury.

Predicted lineup: Sommer (GK), Darmian, Acerbi, Bastoni, Bisseck, Augusto, Mkhitaryan, Çalhanoğlu, Barella, Sánchez & Thuram

Italy Serie A 10/02/25

W

Fiorentina

1

Inter Milan

2

Italy Serie A 06/02/25

L

Fiorentina

3

Inter Milan

0

Italy Serie A 02/02/25

D

AC Milan

1

Inter Milan

1

UEFA Champions League 29/01/25

W

Monaco

0

Inter Milan

3

Italy Serie A 26/01/25

W

Lecce

0

Inter Milan

4

Player to watch – Stefan de Vrij

Dutch international defender Stefan de Vrij has been in top form for Inter Milan this season, taking up a central role in at three at the back system.

The 32-year-old is enjoying his sixth season with Inter Milan after making the move from fellow Italian side Lazio back in 2018. De Vrij might not offer much going forward in terms of goals but the Dutch defender is a born leader and helps to keep his side's shape, making Inter Milan a very tough team to break down.

Organising the defence and leading by example

Inter kept a clean sheet in the first leg largely down to de Vrij and his organisational skills at the back and Inter have now kept five clean sheets in their last six attempts across all competitions, so you can see why we think he will be key in Inter progressing through to the next round of the Champions League on Wednesday night.