Iceland will welcome Azerbaijan to Reykjavik for their first 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifying match in Group D on Friday night. This already feels like an important game for both teams, as they are not fancied to finish above either France or Ukraine and qualify for the tournament due to their respective inferior world rankings.
This will also be the the first competitive outing for either side since their respective UEFA Nations League (UNL) campaigns, with Iceland's ending in March and Azerbaijan's in November. Nonetheless, it will no doubt be interesting to see how these two nations match up against one another, having only played each other once before.
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Iceland vs Azerbaijan prediction: Hosts should start with win
Key stats
- Iceland have won two of their last six games in total in all competitions.
- Iceland have only failed to score once in those outings.
- Azerbaijan have failed to win a single match across all competitions since September 2023.
Correct score prediction: Iceland 3-1 Azerbaijan
Given their superior world ranking and the fact that they have home advantage, we are expecting Iceland to kick off their qualifying campaign with all three points. However, we also fancy Azerbaijan to get themselves on the scoresheet as well, as Iceland have been having some trouble keeping clean sheets in recent games.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Iceland installed as favourites by bookmakers
- HOME: 8/15 (1.53) – 65.2%
- DRAW: 16/5 (4.20) – 23.8%
- AWAY: 5/1 (6.00) – 16.7%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
As shown by the implied probabilities, Iceland have been installed as the favourites with bookmakers to claim all three points on home soil. A draw is rated at just under 24%, while an Azerbaijan victory away from home can still be backed at just under 17%.
Also, feel free to check out our dedicated Football Betting Tips Today page.
Most recent H2Hs: Score draw in only meeting
Perhaps surprisingly, these two nations have only met each other once before. It finished in a 1-1 draw in Iceland in a friendly in August 2008, so there is not a great sample size in terms of comparing past results.
Iceland preview: Big injury blows
Iceland will be without at least two key players through injury for this clash. Indeed, both Arnor Sigurdsson and Johann Berg Gudmundsson are on the treatment table for the hosts.
Predicted lineup: Olafsson (GK), Palsson, Gretarsson, Ingason, Ellertsson, Thodarsson, Willumsson, Haraldsson, Gudmundsson, Gudjohnsen & Thorsteinsson
Last five results:
- Northern Ireland 1-0 Iceland
- Scotland 1-3 Iceland
- Iceland 1-3 Kosovo
- Kosovo 2-1 Iceland
- Ukraine 2-1 Iceland
Azerbaijan preview: Huseynov only major injury absentee
Badavi Huseynov is the only major absentee from Azerbaijan's squad through injury. Otherwise, it is a pretty settled one.
Predicted lineup: Mahammadaliyev (GK), A Huseynov, C Huseynov, Mustafazada, Cafarquilev, Nuriyev, Mahmudov, Ibrahimli, Emreli, Dadashov & Akhundzade
Last five results:
- Azerbaijan 1-2 Hungary
- Latvia 0-0 Azerbaijan
- Azerbaijan 0-2 Belarus
- Azerbaijan 0-3 Haiti
- Sweden 6-0 Azerbaijan
Player to watch: Albert Gudmundsson
Albert Gudmundsson has been involved in the goals for Iceland in recent games. Indeed, he has scored a total of four goals and made a further two assists in his last six internationals, which is something that Azerbaijan will surely have to ponder.