Volksparkstadion will host the upcoming Bundesliga clash between Hamburger and St. Pauli on 29 August. With the home-field advantage behind them, coach Merlin Plozin’s team plays well against this opponent, but we should keep in mind that the visitors kept Borussia Dortmund away from the three points at the start of their 2025/26 campaign.
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Hamburg vs St. Pauli prediction: Routine Hamburg win ahead
Key Stats
- We saw six goals in St. Pauli’s opening Bundesliga match.
- The last five matches between the two clubs at Volksparstadion resulted in three victories for Hamburg, a draw, and only one St. Pauli win.
- Six of the last eight Hamburger vs St. Pauli head-to-heads resulted in over 2.5 goals scored.
Correct score prediction: Hamburg 2-1 St. Pauli
Seeing as Hamburger play so well at home against this opponent, we believe a 2-1 win for Plozin’s players is in order. Moreover, Hamburger’s market value is €20.0m higher than St. Pauli’s, which is another reason to believe The Red Shorts might scoop the three points.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Bookies expect a tight clash
- HOME: 33/25 (2.32) – 43.1%
- DRAW: 49/20 (3.45) – 29.0%
- AWAY: 41/20 (3.05) – 32.8%
*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Currently, Hamburg are the expected winners, with a solid 43.1% win probability behind them at 33/25 (2.32). However, the three points might just elude the home side if coach Plozin’s players choose to underestimate St. Pauli, who also have a 32.8% chance of scooping a win.
If you want to get the top football betting tips today, you should visit our designated page.
Most recent H2Hs: Five-year barren spell
It’s been more than five years since St. Pauli last managed to win at Volksparkstadion. That happened on 22 February, 2020.
Germany Bundesliga II 03/05/24
Hamburg
St Pauli
Germany Bundesliga II 01/12/23
St Pauli
Hamburg
Germany Bundesliga II 21/04/23
Hamburg
St Pauli
Germany Bundesliga II 14/10/22
St Pauli
Hamburg
Germany Bundesliga II 21/01/22
Hamburg
St Pauli
Hamburg team news and form: Issues on the flank
Hamburger weren’t exactly effective in the final third in their match against Borussia Monchengladbach a few days ago. That’s partially because of Bakery Jatta’s injury. The backup winger won’t play against St. Pauli as well.
Predicted lineup: Fernandes (GK), Elfadlli, Omari, Torunarigha, Gocholeishvili, Remberg, Capaldo, Muheim, Rossing-Lelesiit, Konigsdorffer & Sahiti
Germany DFB Pokal 16/08/25
W
Pirmasens
1
Hamburg
2
Elite Club Friendlies 09/08/25
L
Mallorca
2
Hamburg
0
Elite Club Friendlies 26/07/25
L
Lyon
4
Hamburg
0
Europe Friendlies 19/07/25
L
SK Sturm Graz
2
Hamburg
1
Europe Friendlies 12/07/25
L
FC Copenhagen
1
Hamburg
0
St. Pauli team news and form: St. Pauli surprised us all
No one expected coach Alexander Blessin to get anything out of the match against Borussia Dortmund a few days ago. Especially, considering the fact that team captain Jackson Irvine is injured. However, St. Pauli did get a point at home against this difficult opponent.
Predicted lineup: Vasilj (GK), Smith, Dzwigala, Wahl, Pyrka, Sands, Fujita, Oppie, Sinani, Hountondji & Lage
Germany Bundesliga I 11/05/25
D
Eintracht Frankfurt
2
St Pauli
2
Germany Bundesliga I 03/05/25
L
VfB Stuttgart
1
St Pauli
0
Germany Bundesliga I 27/04/25
D
Werder Bremen
0
St Pauli
0
Germany Bundesliga I 20/04/25
D
Bayer Leverkusen
1
St Pauli
1
Germany Bundesliga I 12/04/25
W
Holstein Kiel
1
St Pauli
2
Player to watch: Daniel Fernandes
We expect to see Daniel Fernandes under the sticks for the home side, as he was a starter against Borussia Monchengladbach as well. It proved to be the right call from coach Polzin, as the 32-year-old goalkeeper managed to keep a clean sheet.
Can Fernandes do more?
Fernandes was probably the main man on the pitch at Borussia-Park, with four saves in 90 minutes of football. He has to be on top of his game if he wants to keep his position among the starters, as Daniel Peretz wants his place.