Gabriel Martinelli to Al-Hilal transfer chances: How likely is £60m Arsenal move? Football Whispers Index score

Gabriel Martinelli's seven-year Arsenal career appears to be entering its final weeks, with Al-Hilal emerging as the active suitor for the 25-year-old Brazilian winger in the last nine days of the summer window.

David Ornstein reported on August 23 that Al-Hilal are in talks with both Arsenal and Martinelli's camp over a deal, with the Gunners holding out for around £60m and the player now open to the move after previously wanting to remain in Europe.

Arsenal left Martinelli out of their squads for the Community Shield win over Manchester City and the Premier League opener against Coventry City on August 22, with Christos Tzolis, signed from Club Brugge in July, now occupying the left-wing slot in Arteta's plans.

Gabriel Martinelli to Al-Hilal rated ‘Likely'

The Football Whispers Index scores every transfer rumour across five weighted factors. Read how it works here.

The score lands in Likely rather than higher because the two sides have not agreed a fee and Martinelli has not agreed personal terms, and Arsenal still appear to be seeking a further attacking reinforcement before the window closes.

Those are genuine obstacles, but they sit against a set of drivers that are unusually clear: Arsenal want to sell now rather than carry a player into his final contract year, Martinelli has shifted from rejecting moves to being open to one, and Al-Hilal have the financial wherewithal to meet Arsenal's valuation if they choose to.

With nine days remaining before the September 1 deadline, the question is whether those obstacles can be cleared in time, and the fact that Ornstein confirmed the story on the same morning the window clock is loudest suggests both parties are very aware of what the calendar requires.

Financial viability

Arsenal's £60m asking price represents around a £22m premium on Galatasaray's £38.4m offer from earlier in the window, a gap that reflects the Gunners' belief that Al-Hilal's financial position justifies a higher ask than the European market has so far been prepared to meet.

For Al-Hilal, the feasibility of a £60m fee is a different kind of question than it would be for a Premier League buyer, because the Public Investment Fund operates without the hard spending limits that govern how clubs like Arsenal allocate their own income.

The one-year contract left on Martinelli's deal is the detail that clarifies which direction the pressure runs: holding him through a final season at a club that no longer wants him solves nothing for Arsenal, and exercising the option clause to extend him by a further twelve months simply delays a problem that is already public.

Buying club need

Summerville arrived at Al-Hilal last month specifically to fill the left-wing role, which means this pursuit is better understood as a statement of attacking ambition than a response to a gap that needs filling.

The underlying numbers favour Martinelli as the more dangerous attacker per 90 minutes, with a non-penalty xG rate of roughly 0.34 in 2025/26 compared to Summerville's 0.19 from the same competition at West Ham, though that comparison carries a caveat: Martinelli produced those numbers almost entirely from the bench at Arsenal, and a player averaging 35 or 40 minutes per appearance will naturally post stronger per-90 rates than a player completing full games.

At 25, Martinelli would give Al-Hilal a player at peak attacking age alongside a squad that skews significantly older at the top of its wage bill, and that combination of youth and attacking profile has commercial value in the Saudi Pro League that extends beyond what he contributes inside 90 minutes.

Player motivation

The shift from Martinelli's representatives telling Arsenal he had no interest in Galatasaray, a Champions League side, to him being described by Ornstein as open to Al-Hilal, a Saudi Pro League club, suggests that the financial terms on offer are doing work that the football argument alone would not.

The competition level trade-off is real and should not be understated: leaving the Premier League for Saudi Arabia carries a cost in terms of visibility and national team consideration that a move to Turkey, for all its imperfections from Martinelli's perspective, would not have imposed to the same degree.

What tips the calculation for Martinelli is not the appeal of Al-Hilal but the reality of Arsenal: two games missed, a new signing occupying his position, and no indication from Arteta that his situation is about to improve.

Selling club incentive

The two consecutive squad omissions signal that Arsenal have managed this exit without a formal conversation with the player, which is the detail that prompted Ian Wright's comments on August 22 but is also the factor that introduces a small complication: a player kept at arm's length has less clarity about what Arsenal would accept and how quickly they need it.

The replacement situation is the one that prevents a higher score: Tzolis replaced Trossard, not Martinelli, and reports on August 23 indicate Arsenal remain in the market for a further forward, which means any decision to sell may need to happen alongside an incoming deal rather than ahead of one.

With Martinelli's Transfermarkt valuation having fallen from €85m to €45m in under three years and his starts dropping to 11 in 30 Premier League appearances last season, Arsenal's calculation is straightforward: selling now at £60m captures value that will be significantly harder to recover in any subsequent window.

Market momentum

Ornstein's confirmation on August 23 that Al-Hilal have talks running simultaneously with Arsenal and with Martinelli's camp is the detail that separates this from a standard transfer link: two parallel sets of negotiations in motion on the same day, not one club circling another from a distance.

Then, Romano's August 24 update – stating that an agreement is getting closer – represented a significant step forward in Al-Hilal's pursuit of a summer transfer.

Galatasaray's experience tells you something important beyond the rejected offer: their bid was closed down not by Arsenal but by Martinelli's own representatives, which establishes that his camp will decline a move if the destination falls below their threshold, and that Al-Hilal's current negotiations have cleared a test that a Champions League club in Turkey could not pass.

Gabriel Martinelli to Al-Hilal: Will or won't it happen?

The most likely path to a completed deal runs through Arsenal's ability to confirm a further attacking signing in the same window, because the reporting suggests their willingness to sanction the sale may be conditional on having adequate cover before they move.

The fee gap between Al-Hilal's current offer range and Arsenal's £60m valuation is real but bridgeable: in transfer windows, that kind of distance tends to compress in the final week when both parties have run out of alternatives and the deadline is doing the negotiating for them.

If both conditions are met, this deal completes; if either is not, Martinelli spends a season at a club that has publicly made clear he is not part of its plans, which is precisely the outcome both parties have the strongest incentive to avoid before September 1.